0x652b…f5c2

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Tech79 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (26/79)

  ROI

  +19%

• Other55 bets

  Hit rate

  22% (12/55)

  ROI

  -8%

• Geopolitics37 bets

  Hit rate

  30% (11/37)

  ROI

  +31%

• Politics33 bets

  Hit rate

  42% (14/33)

  ROI

  +71%

• Economy4 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (2/4)

  ROI

  -4%

• Crypto3 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/3)

  ROI

  -100%

• Sports1 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (1/1)

  ROI

  +36%

• Business1 bets

  Hit rate

  0% (0/1)

  ROI

  -100%

• Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?Won
  No$305 @ 61.1¢
• Abbas Araghchi out as Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 6.6¢
• Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
  No$226 @ 38.0¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Lost
  No$2.4k @ 24.4¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
  Yes$79 @ 26.0¢
• Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$183 @ 25.2¢
• Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$258 @ 73.0¢
• Will Google have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Lost
  Yes$12 @ 0.1¢
• Will SpaceXAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 1.3¢
• Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 0.2¢
• Will DeepSeek be the third-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 0.7¢
• Will ByteDance be the #3 AI Lab at the end of September 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
• Will Meta have the second best AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
  Yes$56 @ 5.0¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Lost
  No$126 @ 63.7¢
• Will Iran close its airspace by July 15?Won
  Yes$4.2k @ 67.0¢
• Will OpenAI have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026?Lost
  Yes$18 @ 17.6¢
• Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
  No$2.1k @ 39.0¢
• Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Won
  No$25 @ 23.6¢
• Will OpenAI have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Lost
  Yes$252 @ 66.3¢
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?Won
  No$2.0k @ 35.2¢
• Will DeepSeek have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?Lost
  Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
• GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?Lost
  Yes$8 @ 12.5¢
• Will Moonshot be the third-best AI Agent Lab at the end of September 2026?Won
  No$45 @ 21.1¢
• Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?Won
  Yes$268 @ 32.2¢
• Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by July 31?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 1.5¢
• Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
  Yes$128 @ 0.6¢
• Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$107 @ 31.7¢
• Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$7 @ 75.0¢
• Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 8 and June 14, 2026?Lost
  Yes$58 @ 10.1¢
• Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
  Yes$5 @ 0.4¢
• Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
  No$21 @ 10.0¢
• Will Anthropic IPO by September 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$59 @ 11.0¢
• Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?Won
  Yes$23 @ 31.5¢
• Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Won
  No$245 @ 21.8¢
• Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in September?Lost
  Yes$4 @ 1.5¢
• Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in July?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 24.0¢
• Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 1.4¢
• Will OpenAI have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
  Yes$15 @ 3.0¢
• Will Trump speak to Kim Jong Un in August?Lost
  Yes$20 @ 5.2¢
• Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
  Yes$179 @ 2.6¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
  Yes$237 @ 26.3¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
  Yes$126 @ 18.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
  Yes$34 @ 17.0¢
• Will Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?Lost
  No$62 @ 50.4¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$150 @ 6.2¢
• Will Alibaba be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Won
  Yes$4 @ 3.0¢
• Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
  Yes$26 @ 3.1¢
• Will Google be the third-best AI lab at the end of September 2026?Won
  No$18 @ 34.0¢
• Will MiniMax have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?Won
  No$34 @ 89.8¢

Current positions

• Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 45% or higher?Tech
  Yes$1.0k @ 91.9¢
• Will CMI declare the Riemann Hypothesis solved by December 31, 2027?Culture
  No$866 @ 86.0¢
• Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?Tech
  No$679 @ 64.5¢
• Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
  Yes$632 @ 44.0¢
• Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2027?Culture
  Yes$597 @ 13.4¢
• Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$365 @ 25.4¢
• Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
  No$311 @ 45.5¢
• Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2027?Tech
  No$284 @ 82.1¢
• Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
  No$234 @ 58.5¢
• Will the next Google Gemini Pro model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Tech
  No$196 @ 58.6¢
• Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
  Yes$185 @ 0.5¢
• Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1540 by June 30, 2027?Tech
  No$167 @ 83.0¢
• Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2028?Culture
  Yes$165 @ 26.1¢
• Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech
  Yes$117 @ 49.0¢
• Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 50% or higher?Tech
  No$104 @ 11.0¢
• Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?Tech
  No$103 @ 85.5¢
• Will Masoud Pezeshkian attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$78 @ 15.2¢
• Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Tech
  No$74 @ 73.1¢
• Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$62 @ 6.8¢
• Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
  Yes$60 @ 6.0¢
• Will AI solve 3 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
  Yes$55 @ 5.5¢
• Will CMI declare the Navier-Stokes problem solved by December 31, 2028?Tech
  No$52 @ 65.3¢
• Will the next Claude Opus model debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 55% or higher?Tech
  Yes$49 @ 24.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Politics
  Yes$49 @ 59.0¢
• Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2027?Crypto
  Yes$44 @ 67.1¢
• Will ByteDance have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$43 @ 0.8¢
• Will the next Claude Opus model (5.6+) debut at a score of at least 1530 by June 30, 2027?Tech
  Yes$39 @ 19.0¢
• Will DeepSeek IPO by June 30, 2027?Geopolitics
  Yes$37 @ 57.0¢
• Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$35 @ 17.0¢
• Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Tech
  Yes$32 @ 32.2¢