0x6513…8c10

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x651392a1c43e89669feca9b23baf8478eab88c10
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.2pp

ROI

+27%

Win rate

33% @ 23.7¢

Brier

0.156

Resolved

2185

Avg size

$20

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	38% (108/284)	+26%	284
Politics	69% (11/16)	+16%	16
Tech	17% (1/6)	-30%	6
Sports	33% (1/3)	-66%	3
Economy	100% (1/1)	+1150%	1

Other284 bets
Hit rate
38% (108/284)
ROI
+26%
Politics16 bets
Hit rate
69% (11/16)
ROI
+16%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-30%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-66%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+1150%

Track record

39% hit · 122/310

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will OpenRouter process between 175T and 185T tokens the week of October 19?	Yes	$0	2.1¢	Lost
Will Meta have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Yes	$0	1.2¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	$20	31.2¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.0 on October 23, 2026?	No	$122	64.0¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.0 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	$47	31.6¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	$3	8.0¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	$18	22.7¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on October 23, 2026?	No	$31	78.0¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	$35	22.9¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 23, 2026?	No	$1	2.1¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.5 on October 23, 2026?	No	$281	89.4¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 40.0 on October 23, 2026?	No	$95	95.0¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 36.0 on October 23, 2026?	Yes	$3	95.0¢	Won
Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Yes	$300	50.3¢	Lost
Will Muse from Meta be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.4 on October 16, 2026?	Yes	$290	68.4¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.4 and 37.5 on October 16, 2026?	No	$83	96.2¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.6 and 37.7 on October 16, 2026?	No	$205	96.5¢	Won
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.0 and 37.1 on October 16, 2026?	No	$63	97.2¢	Won
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?	Yes	$26	56.2¢	Lost
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	No	$543	89.0¢	Won
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?	No	$124	31.0¢	Lost
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?	Yes	$33	11.0¢	Won
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?	Yes	$48	24.0¢	Lost
Will Joseph Quinn rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?	No	$9	3.0¢	Lost
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?	No	$230	44.7¢	Lost
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?	Yes	$28	4.6¢	Lost
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?	Yes	$259	84.0¢	Won
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?	No	$101	45.0¢	Won
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?	No	$37	74.0¢	Won
Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?	No	$255	85.0¢	Won
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?	No	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?	Yes	$150	38.2¢	Won
Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?	Yes	$63	51.0¢	Won
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$6	26.6¢	Lost
Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?	Yes	$136	9.8¢	Lost
Will Sydney Sweeney rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?	Yes	$811	70.5¢	Lost
Will Ariana Grande rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?	Yes	$11	1.1¢	Lost
Will GoWish - Your Digital Wishlist be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?	Yes	$0	2.3¢	Lost
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 17?	No	$231	89.0¢	Won
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$17	5.6¢	Lost
Will $PENGUIN reach $200M in Q1?	Yes	$7	7.0¢	Lost
Will "Absentia: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 19?	Yes	$4	4.0¢	Lost
Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?	Yes	$9	3.0¢	Lost
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?	Yes	$94	8.5¢	Lost
Will Grok be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost

Will OpenRouter process between 175T and 185T tokens the week of October 19?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.1¢
Will Meta have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.2¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.5 and 38.9 on October 23, 2026?Won
Yes$20 @ 31.2¢
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.0 on October 23, 2026?Won
No$122 @ 64.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.0 on October 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$47 @ 31.6¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.5 and 37.9 on October 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 39.0 and 39.4 on October 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 22.7¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on October 23, 2026?Won
No$31 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on October 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 22.9¢
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 23, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 2.1¢
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.5 on October 23, 2026?Won
No$281 @ 89.4¢
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 40.0 on October 23, 2026?Won
No$95 @ 95.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 36.0 on October 23, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 95.0¢
Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?Lost
Yes$300 @ 50.3¢
Will Muse from Meta be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 23?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.4 on October 16, 2026?Won
Yes$290 @ 68.4¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.4 and 37.5 on October 16, 2026?Won
No$83 @ 96.2¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.6 and 37.7 on October 16, 2026?Won
No$205 @ 96.5¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 37.0 and 37.1 on October 16, 2026?Won
No$63 @ 97.2¢
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?Lost
Yes$26 @ 56.2¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Won
No$543 @ 89.0¢
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?Lost
No$124 @ 31.0¢
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on March 10?Won
Yes$33 @ 11.0¢
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?Lost
Yes$48 @ 24.0¢
Will Joseph Quinn rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Shadowrocket be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?Lost
No$9 @ 3.0¢
Will Google Gemini be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?Lost
No$230 @ 44.7¢
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 20?Lost
Yes$28 @ 4.6¢
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 2?Won
Yes$259 @ 84.0¢
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?Won
No$101 @ 45.0¢
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on May 19?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?Won
No$37 @ 74.0¢
Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?Won
No$255 @ 85.0¢
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?Lost
No$0 @ 1.0¢
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 24?Won
Yes$150 @ 38.2¢
Will Powell say "Percent" 25+ times during December press conference?Won
Yes$63 @ 51.0¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$6 @ 26.6¢
Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on March 17?Lost
Yes$136 @ 9.8¢
Will Sydney Sweeney rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?Lost
Yes$811 @ 70.5¢
Will Ariana Grande rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched Actors of 2025?Lost
Yes$11 @ 1.1¢
Will GoWish - Your Digital Wishlist be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 28?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.3¢
Will HotSchedules be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on April 17?Won
No$231 @ 89.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$17 @ 5.6¢
Will $PENGUIN reach $200M in Q1?Lost
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Will "Absentia: Season 1" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 2, 2025)Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will Temu: Shop Like a Billionaire be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 19?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
Will Powell say "Weakening" during December press conference?Lost
Yes$9 @ 3.0¢
Will ChatGPT be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on December 26?Lost
Yes$94 @ 8.5¢
Will Grok be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 9?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will OpenRouter process between 725T and 775T tokens from Oct 26 to Nov 22?	Tech	No	$87	69.7¢
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.0 on October 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$84	90.7¢
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$35	51.2¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on October 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$6	78.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.5 on October 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	5.0¢
Will Dunesday beat Barbenheimer's opening weekend record?	Culture	No	$1	1.7¢
Will Meta have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Tech	Yes	$1	1.1¢

Will OpenRouter process between 725T and 775T tokens from Oct 26 to Nov 22?Tech
No$87 @ 69.7¢
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 37.0 on October 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$84 @ 90.7¢
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 38.0 on October 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$35 @ 51.2¢
Will Trump's approval rating be between 38.0 and 38.4 on October 30, 2026?Politics
No$6 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump's approval rating be at least 39.5 on October 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will Dunesday beat Barbenheimer's opening weekend record?Culture
No$1 @ 1.7¢
Will Meta have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Tech
Yes$1 @ 1.1¢