0x64a7…2133

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x64a7a9fd89dcdb207f16b5b3e69d975bec5b2133
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

-2.6pp

ROI

+3%

Win rate

25% @ 27.6¢

Brier

0.119

Resolved

1500

Avg size

$23

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	32% (194/608)	-5%	608
Sports	16% (13/83)	-13%	83
Politics	32% (15/47)	+24%	47
Geopolitics	68% (13/19)	+33%	19
Tech	73% (8/11)	+13%	11
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+27%	2
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other608 bets
Hit rate
32% (194/608)
ROI
-5%
Sports83 bets
Hit rate
16% (13/83)
ROI
-13%
Politics47 bets
Hit rate
32% (15/47)
ROI
+24%
Geopolitics19 bets
Hit rate
68% (13/19)
ROI
+33%
Tech11 bets
Hit rate
73% (8/11)
ROI
+13%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+27%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

32% hit · 244/771

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	$10	0.3¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.8¢	Lost
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?	Yes	$41	22.0¢	Lost
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-25?	No	$20	84.0¢	Won
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12?	No	$5	43.0¢	Won
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$48	1.7¢	Lost
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1?	No	$81	81.0¢	Won
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1?	Yes	$5	13.0¢	Lost
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-2.5)	AFC Bournemouth	$2	0.4¢	Lost
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-01-05?	Yes	$15	35.0¢	Won
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?	Yes	$5	3.3¢	Lost
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on March 27?	Yes	$2	3.5¢	Lost
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-18?	Yes	$4	32.0¢	Won
Anthropic CEO arrested?	Yes	$5	5.9¢	Lost
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?	No	$20	73.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	No	$240	48.0¢	Won
TikTok sale announced by September 30?	No	$2	63.0¢	Won
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?	Yes	$16	80.0¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$61	61.2¢	Won
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?	Yes	$40	59.0¢	Lost
Utah vs. Islanders	Islanders	$4	50.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group B	PARIVISION	$147	49.0¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$19	47.0¢	Won
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-26?	Yes	$4	40.0¢	Won
Stars vs. Canadiens	Canadiens	$5	52.0¢	Lost
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-15?	Yes	$3	63.0¢	Won
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$5	52.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 17?	Yes	$10	25.5¢	Won
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-11?	Yes	$5	57.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.2¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 5?	Yes	$4	4.4¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February?	Yes	$38	63.0¢	Won
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?	No	$1	28.0¢	Lost
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-20?	No	$5	4.0¢	Lost
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-21?	Yes	$3	61.0¢	Lost
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17?	Yes	$4	69.0¢	Won
FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to Score	No	$4	42.0¢	Lost
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?	No	$2	2.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?	Yes	$6	11.0¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	$71	23.8¢	Lost
Nets vs. Hawks	Nets	$5	10.9¢	Lost
Will Paradex launch a token on March 11?	Yes	$5	2.5¢	Lost
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw?	Yes	$4	27.0¢	Lost
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?	No	$10	39.0¢	Won
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	Yes	$5	53.0¢	Lost
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-31?	Yes	$20	64.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$24	12.0¢	Lost
West Ham United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$5	54.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 10?	Yes	$1	2.3¢	Lost
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?	No	$38	38.0¢	Lost

Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.8¢
Will Aryna Sabalenka be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner?Lost
Yes$41 @ 22.0¢
Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-04-25?Won
No$20 @ 84.0¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12?Won
No$5 @ 43.0¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$48 @ 1.7¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1?Won
No$81 @ 81.0¢
Will US crude oil reserves fall to 200M by May 1?Lost
Yes$5 @ 13.0¢
Spread: AFC Bournemouth (-2.5)Lost
AFC Bournemouth$2 @ 0.4¢
Will Leicester City FC win on 2026-01-05?Won
Yes$15 @ 35.0¢
Will Justin Rose win the 2026 Masters tournament?Lost
Yes$5 @ 3.3¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,950 on March 27?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.5¢
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-02-18?Won
Yes$4 @ 32.0¢
Anthropic CEO arrested?Lost
Yes$5 @ 5.9¢
Will Ferrari have the highest constructor score at the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?Won
No$20 @ 73.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Won
No$240 @ 48.0¢
TikTok sale announced by September 30?Won
No$2 @ 63.0¢
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?Won
Yes$16 @ 80.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$61 @ 61.2¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19?Lost
Yes$40 @ 59.0¢
Utah vs. IslandersLost
Islanders$4 @ 50.0¢
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Spirit (BO3) - BLAST Open Rotterdam Group BWon
PARIVISION$147 @ 49.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$19 @ 47.0¢
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-26?Won
Yes$4 @ 40.0¢
Stars vs. CanadiensLost
Canadiens$5 @ 52.0¢
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-02-15?Won
Yes$3 @ 63.0¢
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Lost
Yes$5 @ 52.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on April 17?Won
Yes$10 @ 25.5¢
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-02-11?Lost
Yes$5 @ 57.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on April 5?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.4¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $75 by end of February?Won
Yes$38 @ 63.0¢
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?Lost
No$1 @ 28.0¢
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-09-20?Lost
No$5 @ 4.0¢
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-01-21?Lost
Yes$3 @ 61.0¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-02-17?Won
Yes$4 @ 69.0¢
FC Internazionale Milano vs. FK Bodø/Glimt: Both Teams to ScoreLost
No$4 @ 42.0¢
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?Lost
No$2 @ 2.8¢
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 4 to April 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 11.0¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?Lost
Yes$71 @ 23.8¢
Nets vs. HawksLost
Nets$5 @ 10.9¢
Will Paradex launch a token on March 11?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.5¢
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw?Lost
Yes$4 @ 27.0¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-25?Won
No$10 @ 39.0¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Lost
Yes$5 @ 53.0¢
Will Burgos CF win on 2026-05-31?Won
Yes$20 @ 64.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$24 @ 12.0¢
West Ham United FC vs. Sunderland AFC: Both Teams to ScoreWon
Yes$5 @ 54.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on April 10?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.3¢
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by June 30?Lost
No$38 @ 38.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?	—	No	$360	60.0¢
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?	Sports	Yes	$340	37.0¢
Valorant: Team Envy vs Sentinels - Map 1 Winner	—	Sentinels	$270	47.8¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 16 hours?	—	No	$255	51.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours?	—	No	$228	58.0¢
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance	—	Germany	$198	57.7¢
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance	—	England	$170	55.2¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET	—	Down	$170	25.8¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$158	27.9¢
Will France win on 2026-07-14?	—	Yes	$150	37.7¢
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?	—	Yes	$149	26.1¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?	—	Yes	$136	23.3¢
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score	—	Yes	$136	44.1¢
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?	Politics	No	$126	42.0¢
Counter-Strike: Monte vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs	—	NIP	$120	48.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$113	10.8¢
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-08-20?	—	Yes	$108	36.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Crypto	No	$106	26.5¢
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?	—	Yes	$103	4.1¢
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-08-22?	—	Yes	$100	16.0¢
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season	—	GIANTX	$100	5.8¢
Valorant: Joblife vs Fnatic - Map 2 Winner	—	Fnatic	$100	11.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET	—	Up	$100	41.0¢
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-08-22?	—	Yes	$100	21.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	—	Up	$99	73.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	—	Up	$96	26.4¢
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?	—	Yes	$94	47.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Sports	Yes	$90	45.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET	—	Down	$85	22.5¢
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs	—	Team Liquid	$82	16.5¢

Lacy and Marlon beat gaming challenge by September 6, 2026, 11:59 PM ET?—
No$360 @ 60.0¢
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Prix?Sports
Yes$340 @ 37.0¢
Valorant: Team Envy vs Sentinels - Map 1 Winner—
Sentinels$270 @ 47.8¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 16 hours?—
No$255 @ 51.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the gauntlet within 14 hours?—
No$228 @ 58.0¢
Germany vs. Paraguay: Team to Advance—
Germany$198 @ 57.7¢
England vs. Argentina: Team to Advance—
England$170 @ 55.2¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET—
Down$170 @ 25.8¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$158 @ 27.9¢
Will France win on 2026-07-14?—
Yes$150 @ 37.7¢
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?—
Yes$149 @ 26.1¢
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?—
Yes$136 @ 23.3¢
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Newcastle United FC: Both Teams to Score—
Yes$136 @ 44.1¢
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?Politics
No$126 @ 42.0¢
Counter-Strike: Monte vs NIP (BO3) - CCT Global Finals Playoffs—
NIP$120 @ 48.0¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$113 @ 10.8¢
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-08-20?—
Yes$108 @ 36.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Crypto
No$106 @ 26.5¢
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?—
Yes$103 @ 4.1¢
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-08-22?—
Yes$100 @ 16.0¢
LoL: GIANTX vs Team Vitality (BO3) - LEC Regular Season—
GIANTX$100 @ 5.8¢
Valorant: Joblife vs Fnatic - Map 2 Winner—
Fnatic$100 @ 11.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET—
Up$100 @ 41.0¢
Will Como 1907 win on 2026-08-22?—
Yes$100 @ 21.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET—
Up$99 @ 73.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET—
Up$96 @ 26.4¢
Will there be a safety car during the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?—
Yes$94 @ 47.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Sports
Yes$90 @ 45.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET—
Down$85 @ 22.5¢
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Playoffs—
Team Liquid$82 @ 16.5¢