← Smart money
0x6441…139e
ProfitableEdge
+17.2pp
ROI
+63%
Win rate
57% @ 39.9¢
Brier
0.236
Resolved
716
Avg size
$187
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 42% (35/84) | +68% | 84 |
| Sports | 50% (2/4) | -19% | 4 |
| Politics | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Economy | 100% (1/1) | +302% | 1 |
| Culture | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Crypto | 100% (1/1) | +41% | 1 |
- Other84 bets
- Hit rate
- 42% (35/84)
- ROI
- +68%
- Sports4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- -19%
- Politics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Economy1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +302%
- Culture1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +41%
Track record
41% hit · 39/94- Yes$1 @ 2.9¢
- Della Maddalena$25 @ 28.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 12.0¢
- Sterling $2.0k @ 82.0¢
- No$79 @ 42.5¢
- Yes$10 @ 7.3¢
- Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
- No$386 @ 73.0¢
- No$5 @ 8.0¢
- Yes$234 @ 5.3¢
- Gamrot$3.2k @ 35.8¢
- Yes$360 @ 24.7¢
- Yes$300 @ 15.0¢
- Yes$422 @ 53.7¢
- No$269 @ 1.0¢
- Yes$2.0k @ 50.0¢
- Yes$179 @ 3.2¢
- Yes$500 @ 45.2¢
- No$25 @ 41.0¢
- No$2.1k @ 85.0¢
- No$4.0k @ 76.4¢
- No$10 @ 67.0¢
- Yes$500 @ 37.0¢
- No$2.3k @ 30.3¢
- Yes$1 @ 1.2¢
- No$1.6k @ 53.0¢
- No$5.3k @ 53.6¢
- Yes$408 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$70 @ 21.0¢
- Yes$700 @ 7.0¢
- Yes$26.6k @ 23.2¢
- Yes$2.1k @ 13.9¢
- Yes$747 @ 40.0¢
- No$100 @ 89.3¢
- Yes$1.8k @ 30.8¢
- Yes$1.0k @ 2.3¢
- No$4.9k @ 71.0¢
- Yes$25 @ 59.1¢
- Yes$100 @ 81.0¢
- No$528 @ 84.3¢
- No$9.5k @ 72.3¢
- Yes$380 @ 24.8¢
- Yes$10 @ 1.1¢
- Yes$500 @ 61.8¢
- Yes$24 @ 49.0¢
- Yes$25 @ 67.0¢
- Nawrocki$10.3k @ 70.5¢
- Pereira$50 @ 32.0¢
- Will Zohran Mamdani say "New York" or "New Yorker" 10+ times during his victory/concession speech?WonYes$100 @ 82.0¢
- Yes$102 @ 36.5¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ink FDV above $250M one day after launch? | Crypto | Yes | $2.1k | 66.2¢ |
| Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch? | Crypto | Yes | $494 | 79.0¢ |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Politics | No | $271 | 97.3¢ |
| Will a team from LCK (South Korea) win LoL Worlds 2026? | Sports | No | $148 | 30.6¢ |
| Will Variational launch a token by December 31, 2026? | Crypto | Yes | $102 | 71.0¢ |
| Tim Walz charged by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $44 | 24.0¢ |
| Will a team from LPL (China) win LoL Worlds 2026? | Sports | Yes | $41 | 23.7¢ |
| Ink FDV above $100M one day after launch? | Crypto | Yes | $37 | 37.0¢ |
| Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Economy | Yes | $25 | 7.7¢ |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Economy | Yes | $25 | 4.7¢ |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Politics | Yes | $10 | 13.0¢ |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Politics | Yes | $1 | 6.0¢ |
- Yes$2.1k @ 66.2¢
- Yes$494 @ 79.0¢
- No$271 @ 97.3¢
- No$148 @ 30.6¢
- Yes$102 @ 71.0¢
- Yes$44 @ 24.0¢
- Yes$41 @ 23.7¢
- Yes$37 @ 37.0¢
- Yes$25 @ 7.7¢
- Yes$25 @ 4.7¢
- Yes$10 @ 13.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 6.0¢