0x6418…730c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6418c5ac5e70c42faa142a2e7506f202c563730c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-4.6pp

ROI

+20%

Win rate

28% @ 32.8¢

Brier

0.133

Resolved

958

Avg size

$186

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	43% (26/60)	+26%	60
Other	68% (19/28)	+16%	28
Geopolitics	53% (8/15)	+9%	15
Crypto	57% (4/7)	-73%	7
Sports	40% (2/5)	-65%	5
Tech	100% (2/2)	+63%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+71%	1

Politics60 bets
Hit rate
43% (26/60)
ROI
+26%
Other28 bets
Hit rate
68% (19/28)
ROI
+16%
Geopolitics15 bets
Hit rate
53% (8/15)
ROI
+9%
Crypto7 bets
Hit rate
57% (4/7)
ROI
-73%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-65%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+63%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+71%

Track record

53% hit · 62/118

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23?	No	$224	4.5¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$3.0k	39.2¢	Won
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	No	$60	89.0¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	No	$109	59.6¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$1.6k	51.9¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$7	21.6¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	No	$172	51.2¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?	Yes	$1.7k	46.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	No	$702	69.5¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$2.8k	35.0¢	Lost
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?	Yes	$515	86.7¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$869	74.4¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$1.1k	36.0¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	No	$1.6k	39.0¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$989	43.7¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?	No	$95	32.9¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?	No	$863	66.2¢	Won
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$50	71.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?	Yes	$120	32.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	No	$1.1k	62.5¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$393	25.2¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$3.9k	48.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$50	22.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.1k	0.6¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$574	84.1¢	Won
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?	No	$31	54.0¢	Lost
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	Under	$51	49.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	No	$253	75.9¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?	Yes	$1.4k	35.4¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$2.3k	3.1¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?	Yes	$269	38.9¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 17?	Yes	$244	84.5¢	Won
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	Yes	$94	41.6¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$12.2k	56.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?	No	$200	78.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	No	$78	57.7¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	Yes	$937	51.9¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	$5.0k	18.4¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$50	13.0¢	Lost
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?	Yes	$758	25.3¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?	Yes	$617	68.1¢	Won
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$566	82.3¢	Won
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?	Yes	$1.8k	51.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	No	$4.5k	52.9¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	No	$615	76.2¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$7.3k	32.5¢	Lost
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?	Yes	$1.3k	79.5¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?	Yes	$1.1k	51.5¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?	Yes	$123	48.9¢	Won
US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$200	13.5¢	Lost

Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23?Lost
No$224 @ 4.5¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$3.0k @ 39.2¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Won
No$60 @ 89.0¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Won
No$109 @ 59.6¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 51.9¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$7 @ 21.6¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Won
No$172 @ 51.2¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13?Lost
Yes$1.7k @ 46.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?Won
No$702 @ 69.5¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$2.8k @ 35.0¢
Over $25M committed to the Laso Finance public sale?Won
Yes$515 @ 86.7¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$869 @ 74.4¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 36.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Won
No$1.6k @ 39.0¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$989 @ 43.7¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?Lost
No$95 @ 32.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in July?Won
No$863 @ 66.2¢
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?Won
Yes$50 @ 71.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?Won
Yes$120 @ 32.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Won
No$1.1k @ 62.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$393 @ 25.2¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$3.9k @ 48.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$50 @ 22.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.1k @ 0.6¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$574 @ 84.1¢
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12?Lost
No$31 @ 54.0¢
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5Lost
Under$51 @ 49.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Won
No$253 @ 75.9¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by July 31?Lost
Yes$1.4k @ 35.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$2.3k @ 3.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?Won
Yes$269 @ 38.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on July 17?Won
Yes$244 @ 84.5¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Lost
Yes$94 @ 41.6¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$12.2k @ 56.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?Won
No$200 @ 78.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Won
No$78 @ 57.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Lost
Yes$937 @ 51.9¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Lost
No$5.0k @ 18.4¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$50 @ 13.0¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11?Lost
Yes$758 @ 25.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?Won
Yes$617 @ 68.1¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$566 @ 82.3¢
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 51.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$4.5k @ 52.9¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?Won
No$615 @ 76.2¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 30?Lost
Yes$7.3k @ 32.5¢
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 79.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 51.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in July?Won
Yes$123 @ 48.9¢
US charges Hormuz fees by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$200 @ 13.5¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?	Crypto	Yes	$290	78.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?	Crypto	No	$279	94.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?	Other	No	$184	88.0¢
Will XRP reach $1.80 in September?	Crypto	No	$144	82.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?	Other	Yes	$131	59.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 22?	Crypto	Yes	$59	86.8¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in September?	Crypto	No	$41	84.0¢

Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?Crypto
Yes$290 @ 78.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September?Crypto
No$279 @ 94.7¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in September?Other
No$184 @ 88.0¢
Will XRP reach $1.80 in September?Crypto
No$144 @ 82.6¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in September?Other
Yes$131 @ 59.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on September 22?Crypto
Yes$59 @ 86.8¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in September?Crypto
No$41 @ 84.0¢