0x637e…8cea

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x637e7d6e17f789f3d78837815681becfce2f8cea
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.9pp

ROI

+90%

Win rate

34% @ 24.3¢

Brier

0.204

Resolved

190

Avg size

$15

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	0% (0/44)	-100%	44
Tech	47% (14/30)	+85%	30
Politics	6% (1/17)	-50%	17
Business	0% (0/3)	-100%	3
Sports	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other44 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/44)
ROI
-100%
Tech30 bets
Hit rate
47% (14/30)
ROI
+85%
Politics17 bets
Hit rate
6% (1/17)
ROI
-50%
Business3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

15% hit · 15/99

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	No	$507	60.9¢	Won
Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	$50	47.4¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	$152	63.9¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	No	$25	49.9¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	$890	51.8¢	Won
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	$489	48.9¢	Won
Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	$4	1.2¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	No	$45	60.7¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?	Yes	$53	45.8¢	Lost
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $265 on September 15?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	No	$68	44.8¢	Won
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	Yes	$284	55.8¢	Lost
Will the announcers say "No Good" during the Steelers vs Browns game?	No	$4	38.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Smelter" during his rally in Oklahoma?	Yes	$6	58.0¢	Lost
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?	No	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his remarks at Peterbilt Motors Company?	No	$6	61.0¢	Won
Bitcoin above 79,400 on September 14, 1AM ET?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5?	Yes	$67	59.4¢	Won
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $185 in September?	No	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on September 15?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Iran target Bahrain by September 15, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	Yes	$9	7.1¢	Lost
Will PQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Bitcoin above 79,400 on September 14, 12AM ET?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on September 16?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Z.ai have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?	Yes	$33	12.3¢	Lost
Bitcoin above 79,200 on September 14, 12AM ET?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $225 on September 15?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 on September 15?	No	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $520 on September 15?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Bitcoin above 79,400 on September 13, 4PM ET?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	No	$4	20.3¢	Lost
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	Yes	$218	31.5¢	Won
Will D'Andre Swift have 2.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?	No	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Reagan" during his rally in Oklahoma?	No	$3	25.0¢	Lost
Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 165T tokens the week of October 5?	Yes	$2	28.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin above 78,400 on September 14, 12AM ET?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will no Rogan episode air?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will General Mills say "Blue Buffalo" during earnings call?	No	$10	47.0¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	No	$26	13.9¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?	Yes	$138	27.8¢	Won
Bitcoin above 79,000 on September 14, 1AM ET?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Bitcoin above 78,800 on September 14, 12AM ET?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	$4	22.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on September 14?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of September 14 2026?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost

Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Won
No$507 @ 60.9¢
Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Lost
Yes$50 @ 47.4¢
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Won
Yes$152 @ 63.9¢
Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Lost
No$25 @ 49.9¢
Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Won
Yes$890 @ 51.8¢
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Won
Yes$489 @ 48.9¢
Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Lost
Yes$4 @ 1.2¢
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Won
No$45 @ 60.7¢
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 12?Lost
Yes$53 @ 45.8¢
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $265 on September 15?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?Won
No$68 @ 44.8¢
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?Lost
Yes$284 @ 55.8¢
Will the announcers say "No Good" during the Steelers vs Browns game?Lost
No$4 @ 38.0¢
Will Trump say "Smelter" during his rally in Oklahoma?Lost
Yes$6 @ 58.0¢
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.0% before 2027?Lost
No$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump say "SI" or "Super Intelligence" during his remarks at Peterbilt Motors Company?Won
No$6 @ 61.0¢
Bitcoin above 79,400 on September 14, 1AM ET?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will OpenRouter process between 165T and 175T tokens the week of October 5?Won
Yes$67 @ 59.4¢
Will Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) hit (HIGH) $185 in September?Lost
No$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Bitcoin reach $83,000 on September 15?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Iran target Bahrain by September 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will OpenAI have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?Lost
Yes$9 @ 7.1¢
Will PQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Bitcoin above 79,400 on September 14, 12AM ET?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $72,000 on September 16?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Z.ai have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 5?Lost
Yes$33 @ 12.3¢
Bitcoin above 79,200 on September 14, 12AM ET?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $225 on September 15?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $480 on September 15?Lost
No$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $520 on September 15?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Bitcoin above 79,400 on September 13, 4PM ET?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?Lost
No$4 @ 20.3¢
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?Won
Yes$218 @ 31.5¢
Will D'Andre Swift have 2.5+ rushing touchdowns in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Lost
No$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Trump say "Reagan" during his rally in Oklahoma?Lost
No$3 @ 25.0¢
Will OpenRouter process between 155T and 165T tokens the week of October 5?Lost
Yes$2 @ 28.0¢
Bitcoin above 78,400 on September 14, 12AM ET?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will no Rogan episode air?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Khamenei post 50-54 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will General Mills say "Blue Buffalo" during earnings call?Lost
No$10 @ 47.0¢
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?Lost
No$26 @ 13.9¢
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 28?Won
Yes$138 @ 27.8¢
Bitcoin above 79,000 on September 14, 1AM ET?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Bitcoin above 78,800 on September 14, 12AM ET?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 22.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on September 14?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of September 14 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Tech	Yes	$1.5k	50.4¢
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Tech	Yes	$871	48.6¢
Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Tech	No	$656	53.6¢
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Tech	Yes	$62	68.6¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$49	49.0¢
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Tech	No	$37	47.0¢
Will Grok Bot be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$15	7.3¢
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Tech	Yes	$11	37.7¢
Will Marquense be relegated from the 2026-27 Liga Nacional (Guatemala)?	Sports	Yes	$10	50.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$3	3.0¢
Will Anthropic have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Tech	Yes	$3	0.5¢
Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Tech	Yes	$2	0.5¢
Will Z.ai be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2	3.1¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2	1.9¢
Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Tech	Yes	$2	1.2¢
Will Qwen have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?	Tech	Yes	$2	0.4¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2	1.8¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$2	3.5¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2	8.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?	Business	Yes	$1	27.0¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$1	2.7¢
Will SpaceXAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	4.2¢
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	2.5¢
Google announces a training pause by October 31?	Tech	Yes	$1	8.0¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?	Tech	Yes	$1	3.7¢
Will Z.ai be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	4.4¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$1	5.4¢
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	3.6¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$1	2.7¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$1	3.2¢

Will OpenAI have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Tech
Yes$1.5k @ 50.4¢
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Tech
Yes$871 @ 48.6¢
Will Google have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Tech
No$656 @ 53.6¢
Will DeepSeek have the highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Tech
Yes$62 @ 68.6¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$49 @ 49.0¢
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Tech
No$37 @ 47.0¢
Will Grok Bot be available on the free plan by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$15 @ 7.3¢
Will OpenAI have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Tech
Yes$11 @ 37.7¢
Will Marquense be relegated from the 2026-27 Liga Nacional (Guatemala)?Sports
Yes$10 @ 50.0¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
Will Anthropic have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Tech
Yes$3 @ 0.5¢
Will Z.ai have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Tech
Yes$2 @ 0.5¢
Will Z.ai be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$2 @ 3.1¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$2 @ 1.9¢
Will DeepSeek have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Tech
Yes$2 @ 1.2¢
Will Qwen have the third highest OpenRouter market share the week of October 19?Tech
Yes$2 @ 0.4¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$2 @ 1.8¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$2 @ 3.5¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $6.00 and $6.50 on December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$2 @ 8.4¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?Business
Yes$1 @ 27.0¢
Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $750B and $1T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Will SpaceXAI be the second-best AI lab at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 4.2¢
Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
Google announces a training pause by October 31?Tech
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?Tech
Yes$1 @ 3.7¢
Will Z.ai be the second-best AI lab at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 4.4¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Tech
Yes$1 @ 5.4¢
Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 3.6¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$1 @ 2.7¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$1 @ 3.2¢