0x635d…5025

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x635d4ea180ca206cb2ae9c02bfbe93583b195025
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+4.1pp

ROI

+4%

Win rate

41% @ 36.5¢

Brier

0.136

Resolved

3208

Avg size

$32

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (70/139)	-8%	139
Politics	72% (51/71)	+13%	71
Sports	37% (18/49)	+8%	49
Crypto	68% (21/31)	-2%	31
Geopolitics	89% (17/19)	+8%	19
Economy	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Culture	100% (2/2)	+41%	2

Other139 bets
Hit rate
50% (70/139)
ROI
-8%
Politics71 bets
Hit rate
72% (51/71)
ROI
+13%
Sports49 bets
Hit rate
37% (18/49)
ROI
+8%
Crypto31 bets
Hit rate
68% (21/31)
ROI
-2%
Geopolitics19 bets
Hit rate
89% (17/19)
ROI
+8%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+41%

Track record

57% hit · 179/313

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?	No	$57	57.0¢	Won
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	$149	27.1¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?	No	$241	84.0¢	Won
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?	Yes	$61	5.5¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?	No	$401	79.4¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?	Yes	$2	0.5¢	Lost
Will John Tory win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	$2	0.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$807	66.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$252	84.0¢	Won
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$632	79.0¢	Won
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$74	1.6¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$2	1.8¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	No	$154	28.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?	Yes	$263	51.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$2.3k	75.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$116	38.7¢	Lost
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$690	77.4¢	Won
Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September?	No	$154	77.0¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	Yes	$53	17.7¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	No	$178	89.0¢	Won
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	No	$148	74.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?	No	$1.5k	38.7¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	$755	75.5¢	Won
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Yes	$505	56.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	$1.6k	82.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$152	76.0¢	Won
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?	Yes	$58	29.0¢	Lost
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$37	2.8¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?	Yes	$4	0.2¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$151	50.3¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$1.2k	67.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" or "Cheater" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21?	No	$60	60.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" or "Cheater" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21?	Yes	$23	36.0¢	Lost
Will Kosovo qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$257	65.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$1.2k	80.6¢	Won
Nothing Ever Happens: April	Nothing	$73	73.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?	No	$103	81.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	No	$882	28.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.8k	49.8¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	$342	85.5¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$20	10.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	No	$558	79.4¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?	No	$156	78.0¢	Won
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$261	65.2¢	Won
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$205	25.2¢	Lost
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	72.9¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?	Yes	$98	49.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Iran" or "Oil" 13+ times during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21?	No	$0	3.0¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$261	87.1¢	Won

Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Won
No$57 @ 57.0¢
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Lost
No$149 @ 27.1¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?Won
No$241 @ 84.0¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire end by April 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$61 @ 5.5¢
Will Bitcoin reach $72,500 in June?Won
No$401 @ 79.4¢
Will LeBron James play for the San Antonio Spurs in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.5¢
Will John Tory win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$807 @ 66.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$252 @ 84.0¢
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$632 @ 79.0¢
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$74 @ 1.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Saudi Arabia?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.8¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$154 @ 28.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10?Won
Yes$263 @ 51.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$2.3k @ 75.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$116 @ 38.7¢
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$690 @ 77.4¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,900 in September?Won
No$154 @ 77.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Lost
Yes$53 @ 17.7¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Won
No$178 @ 89.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$148 @ 74.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$1.5k @ 38.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?Won
No$755 @ 75.5¢
Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Won
Yes$505 @ 56.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 82.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$152 @ 76.0¢
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?Lost
Yes$58 @ 29.0¢
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$37 @ 2.8¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.2¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$151 @ 50.3¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 67.3¢
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" or "Cheater" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21?Won
No$60 @ 60.0¢
Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" or "Cheater" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21?Lost
Yes$23 @ 36.0¢
Will Kosovo qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$257 @ 65.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$1.2k @ 80.6¢
Nothing Ever Happens: AprilWon
Nothing$73 @ 73.0¢
Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?Won
No$103 @ 81.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$882 @ 28.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$2.8k @ 49.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Won
No$342 @ 85.5¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Lost
Yes$20 @ 10.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?Won
No$558 @ 79.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June?Won
No$156 @ 78.0¢
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$261 @ 65.2¢
Will South Africa reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$205 @ 25.2¢
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 72.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September?Won
Yes$98 @ 49.0¢
Will Trump say "Iran" or "Oil" 13+ times during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21?Won
No$0 @ 3.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$261 @ 87.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$8.2k	80.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.2k	84.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$1.1k	68.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$629	62.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$473	39.4¢
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$457	91.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$333	83.3¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$323	80.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$300	74.9¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$299	21.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$292	97.2¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$286	47.6¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$282	94.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$280	69.9¢
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$247	82.5¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	No	$238	79.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?	Politics	No	$230	76.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$222	92.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$192	96.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$184	92.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	No	$182	91.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?	Other	No	$182	91.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$180	90.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$178	89.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$178	88.9¢
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$175	97.2¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$174	86.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$170	85.0¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$170	85.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$169	56.4¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$8.2k @ 80.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.2k @ 84.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$1.1k @ 68.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$629 @ 62.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$473 @ 39.4¢
Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$457 @ 91.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$333 @ 83.3¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$323 @ 80.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$300 @ 74.9¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$299 @ 21.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$292 @ 97.2¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$286 @ 47.6¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$282 @ 94.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$280 @ 69.9¢
Bitcoin all time high by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$247 @ 82.5¢
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
No$238 @ 79.2¢
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Politics
No$230 @ 76.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$222 @ 92.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$192 @ 96.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$184 @ 92.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
No$182 @ 91.0¢
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?Other
No$182 @ 91.0¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$180 @ 90.1¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$178 @ 89.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$178 @ 88.9¢
Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$175 @ 97.2¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$174 @ 86.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$170 @ 85.0¢
China x Japan military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$170 @ 85.0¢
US strike on Cuba by December 31?Geopolitics
No$169 @ 56.4¢