0x6206…cf4c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6206f55ed577a4f0fa68eb08537aeda5ff16cf4c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+6.0pp

ROI

+180%

Win rate

44% @ 37.8¢

Brier

0.329

Resolved

899

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	46% (45/98)	-8%	98
Politics	54% (19/35)	-31%	35
Crypto	42% (10/24)	+56%	24
Sports	44% (8/18)	-44%	18
Geopolitics	20% (1/5)	-43%	5
Tech	100% (1/1)	—	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other98 bets
Hit rate
46% (45/98)
ROI
-8%
Politics35 bets
Hit rate
54% (19/35)
ROI
-31%
Crypto24 bets
Hit rate
42% (10/24)
ROI
+56%
Sports18 bets
Hit rate
44% (8/18)
ROI
-44%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-43%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
—
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

46% hit · 84/182

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 18?	No	$1	75.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on September 18?	Yes	$1	42.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	No	$9	43.6¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$9	36.2¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	No	$1	20.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?	Yes	$7	76.8¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	Yes	$15	66.7¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?	Yes	$7	13.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on September 17?	No	$1	82.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on September 17?	Yes	$2	43.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	No	$2	88.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?	Yes	$30	10.7¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	No	$3	29.0¢	Lost
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$5	41.5¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	No	$8	81.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$11	4.8¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	Yes	$7	3.2¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?	Yes	$2	53.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	No	$39	62.2¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?	Yes	$29	33.3¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	No	$3	86.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	No	$17	11.9¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	Yes	$6	59.2¢	Won
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	No	$5	33.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	Yes	$8	65.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or higher on September 17?	No	$1	66.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 17?	Yes	$1	26.0¢	Lost
Fed rate hike in 2026?	No	$3	33.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$5	55.3¢	Won
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31?	Yes	$1	3.8¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	No	$3	40.0¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	No	$11	20.3¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?	Yes	$13	77.3¢	Won
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	Yes	$13	38.4¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?	Yes	$4	65.0¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	No	$17	55.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?	Yes	$28	13.9¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$37	58.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 17?	No	$4	68.3¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	22.0¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	No	$2	65.0¢	Won
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?	Yes	$8	15.6¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Yes	$91	67.0¢	Won
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?	Yes	$13	11.8¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?	Yes	$5	5.3¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	No	$9	46.6¢	Won
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	Yes	$14	73.3¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$3	71.5¢	Lost
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?	No	$2	22.0¢	Won
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?	No	$1	14.8¢	Lost

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C on September 18?Lost
No$1 @ 75.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on September 18?Lost
Yes$1 @ 42.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Lost
No$9 @ 43.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 36.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Lost
No$1 @ 20.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3?Won
Yes$7 @ 76.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Won
Yes$15 @ 66.7¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 13.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on September 17?Won
No$1 @ 82.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on September 17?Lost
Yes$2 @ 43.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Won
No$2 @ 88.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 10.7¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Lost
No$3 @ 29.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$5 @ 41.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
No$8 @ 81.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 4.8¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August?Lost
Yes$2 @ 53.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
No$39 @ 62.2¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$29 @ 33.3¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Lost
No$3 @ 86.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Lost
No$17 @ 11.9¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?Won
Yes$6 @ 59.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Lost
No$5 @ 33.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?Won
Yes$8 @ 65.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 26°C or higher on September 17?Lost
No$1 @ 66.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on September 17?Lost
Yes$1 @ 26.0¢
Fed rate hike in 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 33.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$5 @ 55.3¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by August 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$3 @ 40.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Lost
No$11 @ 20.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?Won
Yes$13 @ 77.3¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Lost
Yes$13 @ 38.4¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 65.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Won
No$17 @ 55.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$28 @ 13.9¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$37 @ 58.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on September 17?Won
No$4 @ 68.3¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 22.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?Won
No$2 @ 65.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by August 15?Lost
Yes$8 @ 15.6¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Won
Yes$91 @ 67.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$13 @ 11.8¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?Won
Yes$5 @ 5.3¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Won
No$9 @ 46.6¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Lost
Yes$14 @ 73.3¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 71.5¢
Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by August 15?Won
No$2 @ 22.0¢
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?Lost
No$1 @ 14.8¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$86	74.1¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$25	75.6¢
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$24	88.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$20	30.5¢
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?	Culture	Yes	$16	61.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$15	89.1¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?	Politics	No	$13	86.4¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	No	$11	85.1¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	81.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	No	$10	90.0¢
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$9	85.7¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on September 18?	—	Yes	$9	44.6¢
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$8	99.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 19?	—	No	$8	78.6¢
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?	Politics	No	$8	93.7¢
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?	Tech	Yes	$8	93.6¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?	—	No	$7	80.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$7	73.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on September 19?	—	No	$7	82.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on September 19?	—	Yes	$6	48.3¢
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?	Geopolitics	No	$6	87.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on September 18?	—	Yes	$6	38.8¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$6	83.1¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$6	63.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on September 19?	—	No	$6	70.0¢
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?	Politics	No	$5	92.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 19?	—	No	$5	79.7¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$5	96.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 18?	—	Yes	$5	42.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 19?	—	No	$5	66.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$86 @ 74.1¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$25 @ 75.6¢
Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?Geopolitics
No$24 @ 88.8¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$20 @ 30.5¢
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Culture
Yes$16 @ 61.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$15 @ 89.1¢
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?Politics
No$13 @ 86.4¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31?Politics
No$11 @ 85.1¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 81.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
No$10 @ 90.0¢
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$9 @ 85.7¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on September 18?—
Yes$9 @ 44.6¢
Will Pablo Marçal win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$8 @ 99.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on September 19?—
No$8 @ 78.6¢
Will Israel annex West Bank territory before 2027?Politics
No$8 @ 93.7¢
Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Tech
Yes$8 @ 93.6¢
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?—
No$7 @ 80.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Geopolitics
No$7 @ 73.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on September 19?—
No$7 @ 82.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on September 19?—
Yes$6 @ 48.3¢
Will Saudi Arabia recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
No$6 @ 87.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on September 18?—
Yes$6 @ 38.8¢
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$6 @ 83.1¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$6 @ 63.9¢
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on September 19?—
No$6 @ 70.0¢
Will Israel annex any territory by December 31?Politics
No$5 @ 92.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on September 19?—
No$5 @ 79.7¢
Israel closes its airspace by September 30?Politics
Yes$5 @ 96.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on September 18?—
Yes$5 @ 42.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on September 19?—
No$5 @ 66.0¢