← Smart money
0x61ea…bbf7
ProfitableEdge
+22.7pp
ROI
+47%
Win rate
53% @ 30.1¢
Brier
0.267
Resolved
952
Avg size
$211
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 44% (31/71) | +113% | 71 |
| Politics | 31% (5/16) | -21% | 16 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +47% | 1 |
- Other71 bets
- Hit rate
- 44% (31/71)
- ROI
- +113%
- Politics16 bets
- Hit rate
- 31% (5/16)
- ROI
- -21%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +47%
Track record
42% hit · 37/88- Yes$8 @ 3.9¢
- Yes$4.0k @ 80.3¢
- Yes$82 @ 22.4¢
- Yes$100 @ 7.1¢
- Yes$19.3k @ 37.1¢
- Yes$37 @ 9.1¢
- Yes$2.7k @ 51.9¢
- Yes$29 @ 14.4¢
- No$3.0k @ 34.2¢
- Yes$9.0k @ 16.8¢
- No$272 @ 68.0¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 26.3¢
- Yes$848 @ 53.0¢
- No$178 @ 89.0¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 12.1¢
- Yes$15.6k @ 67.3¢
- Yes$4.0k @ 27.7¢
- Yes$1.5k @ 26.7¢
- Yes$1.3k @ 13.0¢
- Yes$795 @ 25.3¢
- No$98 @ 49.0¢
- Yes$130 @ 65.0¢
- Yes$124 @ 1.7¢
- Yes$117 @ 13.0¢
- No$172 @ 86.0¢
- Yes$2.2k @ 7.3¢
- No$1.6k @ 75.0¢
- Yes$97 @ 2.3¢
- Yes$102 @ 1.8¢
- Yes$236 @ 59.0¢
- No$135 @ 23.0¢
- Yes$6.2k @ 28.8¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 17.1¢
- No$9 @ 1.6¢
- No$154 @ 77.0¢
- Yes$124 @ 31.0¢
- Yes$10.5k @ 61.6¢
- No$80 @ 40.0¢
- Yes$109 @ 74.1¢
- Yes$2.1k @ 11.5¢
- Yes$2.6k @ 26.0¢
- Yes$3.5k @ 20.0¢
- No$2.8k @ 67.8¢
- Yes$418 @ 24.3¢
- Yes$4.5k @ 5.8¢
- Yes$120 @ 60.0¢
- Yes$3.0k @ 15.0¢
- Yes$21 @ 2.6¢
- Yes$1.7k @ 29.0¢
- Yes$2.5k @ 58.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? | Politics | Yes | $5.4k | 56.5¢ |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? | Politics | Yes | $5.2k | 34.5¢ |
| Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | Politics | Yes | $5.1k | 49.0¢ |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Politics | Yes | $3.3k | 30.6¢ |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | Politics | Yes | $2.6k | 47.3¢ |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House | Politics | Yes | $1.6k | 31.0¢ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | Politics | Yes | $1.1k | 24.0¢ |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Politics | Yes | $880 | 1.5¢ |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | Politics | Yes | $864 | 54.0¢ |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Politics | Yes | $304 | 9.5¢ |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Politics | Yes | $0 | 0.0¢ |
- Yes$5.4k @ 56.5¢
- Yes$5.2k @ 34.5¢
- Yes$5.1k @ 49.0¢
- Yes$3.3k @ 30.6¢
- Yes$2.6k @ 47.3¢
- Yes$1.6k @ 31.0¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 24.0¢
- Yes$880 @ 1.5¢
- Yes$864 @ 54.0¢
- Yes$304 @ 9.5¢
- Yes$0 @ 0.0¢