← Smart money
0x614d…1546
ProfitableEdge
+39.0pp
ROI
+67%
Win rate
78% @ 38.7¢
Brier
0.269
Resolved
526
Avg size
$339
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 50% (2/4) | -4% | 4 |
| Tech | 67% (2/3) | +43% | 3 |
| Crypto | 100% (2/2) | +116% | 2 |
| Other | 100% (1/1) | +16% | 1 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +2% | 1 |
- Politics4 bets
- Hit rate
- 50% (2/4)
- ROI
- -4%
- Tech3 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (2/3)
- ROI
- +43%
- Crypto2 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (2/2)
- ROI
- +116%
- Other1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +16%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +2%
Track record
73% hit · 8/11| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%? | Yes | $1.0k | 33.4¢ | Lost |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? | No | $1.8k | 32.1¢ | Lost |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $3.9k | 76.9¢ | Won |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? | No | $4.0k | 53.9¢ | Won |
| Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election? | No | $2.5k | 88.0¢ | Won |
| Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%? | Yes | $223 | 4.2¢ | Lost |
| Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? | Yes | $911 | 86.0¢ | Won |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? | No | $6.0k | 63.5¢ | Won |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | $32.8k | 44.2¢ | Won |
| Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? | Yes | $5.8k | 92.1¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | $9.8k | 97.7¢ | Won |
- Yes$1.0k @ 33.4¢
- No$1.8k @ 32.1¢
- Yes$3.9k @ 76.9¢
- No$4.0k @ 53.9¢
- No$2.5k @ 88.0¢
- Yes$223 @ 4.2¢
- Yes$911 @ 86.0¢
- No$6.0k @ 63.5¢
- No$32.8k @ 44.2¢
- Yes$5.8k @ 92.1¢
- No$9.8k @ 97.7¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
- No$99.6k @ 85.0¢
- No$55.9k @ 69.8¢
- No$47.2k @ 59.0¢
- No$44.3k @ 88.8¢
- No$35.5k @ 95.8¢
- Yes$34.5k @ 82.7¢
- Yes$31.7k @ 65.0¢
- Yes$30.5k @ 53.5¢
- Yes$23.1k @ 22.9¢
- No$17.0k @ 66.1¢
- Iran coup attempt by June 30?PoliticsNo$11.5k @ 76.5¢
- Yes$11.5k @ 57.4¢
- No$10.8k @ 54.8¢
- No$10.2k @ 95.4¢
- Yes$10.1k @ 78.9¢
- Yes$9.9k @ 79.3¢
- No$6.6k @ 90.5¢
- No$4.1k @ 81.6¢
- Yes$3.9k @ 30.4¢
- Yes$3.8k @ 94.0¢
- Starmer out by June 30, 2026?PoliticsNo$3.4k @ 67.5¢
- No$1.8k @ 90.0¢
- No$1.5k @ 92.0¢
- No$1.4k @ 90.0¢
- Yes$596 @ 61.1¢
- No$204 @ 93.0¢
- Yes$103 @ 0.6¢