0x614d…1546

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x614dc8d3542c12103d2c6a3553fd761e391d1546
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+36.8pp

ROI

+95%

Win rate

75% @ 38.3¢

Brier

0.277

Resolved

265

Avg size

$333

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	60% (6/10)	+12%	10
Tech	67% (2/3)	+43%	3
Other	100% (2/2)	+7%	2
Crypto	100% (2/2)	+116%	2
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+2%	1

Politics10 bets
Hit rate
60% (6/10)
ROI
+12%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+43%
Other2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+7%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+116%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+2%

Track record

72% hit · 13/18

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?	Yes	$1.0k	33.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$6.3k	34.2¢	Won
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?	No	$2.5k	88.0¢	Won
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?	Yes	$223	4.2¢	Lost
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw?	Yes	$911	86.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?	No	$4.6k	95.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$3.9k	76.9¢	Won
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$1.1k	81.8¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$6.3k	38.8¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$1.8k	32.1¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?	No	$4.0k	53.9¢	Won
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$1.7k	34.5¢	Lost
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?	No	$6.0k	63.5¢	Won
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	$10.2k	95.4¢	Won
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	$1.9k	94.9¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$32.8k	44.2¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?	Yes	$5.8k	92.1¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$9.8k	97.7¢	Won

Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 33.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$6.3k @ 34.2¢
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary election?Won
No$2.5k @ 88.0¢
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.4–0.5%?Lost
Yes$223 @ 4.2¢
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw?Won
Yes$911 @ 86.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?Won
No$4.6k @ 95.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$3.9k @ 76.9¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$1.1k @ 81.8¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$6.3k @ 38.8¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$1.8k @ 32.1¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
No$4.0k @ 53.9¢
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
No$1.7k @ 34.5¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T?Won
No$6.0k @ 63.5¢
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
No$10.2k @ 95.4¢
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
No$1.9k @ 94.9¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$32.8k @ 44.2¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$5.8k @ 92.1¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$9.8k @ 97.7¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$78.0k	70.9¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Politics	Yes	$60.9k	60.9¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$50.0k	50.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$50.0k	50.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?	Politics	No	$47.2k	59.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$31.7k	65.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$30.5k	53.5¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$21.5k	85.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	—	No	$18.6k	93.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?	—	Yes	$15.9k	62.4¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$13.2k	66.1¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$13.0k	91.2¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?	—	No	$12.1k	81.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	—	Yes	$9.8k	89.2¢
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?	—	No	$7.7k	96.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$5.7k	57.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	—	Yes	$5.6k	58.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?	—	Yes	$4.5k	81.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4.0k	57.2¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$3.1k	83.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$2.0k	69.7¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?	Politics	No	$1.5k	92.0¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$800	80.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$596	61.1¢
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$228	87.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$78.0k @ 70.9¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Politics
Yes$60.9k @ 60.9¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$50.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$50.0k @ 50.0¢
Iran leadership change by December 31?Politics
No$47.2k @ 59.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$31.7k @ 65.0¢
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
Yes$30.5k @ 53.5¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$21.5k @ 85.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?—
No$18.6k @ 93.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?—
Yes$15.9k @ 62.4¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$13.2k @ 66.1¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026?Politics
No$13.0k @ 91.2¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?—
No$12.1k @ 81.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?—
Yes$9.8k @ 89.2¢
Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election?—
No$7.7k @ 96.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$5.7k @ 57.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?—
Yes$5.6k @ 58.5¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 9?—
Yes$4.5k @ 81.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$4.0k @ 57.2¢
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?Politics
Yes$3.1k @ 83.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Vladimir Putin by July 31, 2026?—
Yes$2.0k @ 69.7¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?Politics
No$1.5k @ 92.0¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$800 @ 80.0¢
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
Yes$596 @ 61.1¢
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by September 30, 2026?—
No$228 @ 87.0¢