0x614d…1546

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Politics110 bets

  Hit rate

  72% (79/110)

  ROI

  +20%

• Other57 bets

  Hit rate

  53% (30/57)

  ROI

  -19%

• Geopolitics17 bets

  Hit rate

  82% (14/17)

  ROI

  +2%

• Sports10 bets

  Hit rate

  40% (4/10)

  ROI

  -50%

• Crypto7 bets

  Hit rate

  71% (5/7)

  ROI

  +68%

• Tech3 bets

  Hit rate

  67% (2/3)

  ROI

  +43%

• Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
  Yes$5.9k @ 39.1¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
  No$4.0k @ 85.3¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$2.6k @ 87.0¢
• Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw?Won
  Yes$3.0k @ 58.8¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?Lost
  Yes$953 @ 18.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
  No$7.7k @ 85.6¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$18.8k @ 26.8¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
  No$45.0k @ 69.6¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$781 @ 72.9¢
• Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
  Yes$6.3k @ 38.8¢
• Russia Elections: United Russia Wins Every Region?Won
  Yes$3.4k @ 64.7¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
  Yes$4.8k @ 31.6¢
• Will voter turnout be between 53% and 56% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Won
  No$374 @ 90.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
  Yes$34.9k @ 38.4¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$23.0k @ 85.3¢
• Spread: Germany (-3.5)Lost
  Curaçao$467 @ 46.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
  Yes$9.0k @ 13.5¢
• Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
  No$2.2k @ 61.3¢
• Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga SwiatekLost
  Iga Swiatek$978 @ 24.5¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
  No$13.7k @ 75.9¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
  Yes$16.4k @ 85.0¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$6.1k @ 60.7¢
• Spread: Egypt (-2.5)Lost
  Egypt$92 @ 8.9¢
• Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.3–0.4%?Lost
  Yes$1.0k @ 33.4¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1.6k @ 14.7¢
• Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
  Yes$70 @ 58.0¢
• Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May?Lost
  Yes$3.3k @ 45.0¢
• Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?Won
  No$3.4k @ 86.0¢
• Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Won
  No$605 @ 88.1¢
• FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 2.5Won
  Under$1.5k @ 44.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$26.0k @ 39.4¢
• Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
  Yes$4.2k @ 84.2¢
• SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
  No$1.8k @ 32.1¢
• Clavicular pregnancy in 2026?Won
  Yes$5.7k @ 80.0¢
• Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06?Won
  No$726 @ 72.0¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$3.6k @ 27.1¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Won
  No$19.8k @ 85.6¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April?Lost
  Yes$1.3k @ 7.2¢
• US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Lost
  Yes$2.1k @ 13.9¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$66.6k @ 61.1¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$10.7k @ 74.7¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$3.9k @ 76.9¢
• Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?Lost
  No$1.8k @ 57.2¢
• Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Won
  No$4.1k @ 81.5¢
• Will voter turnout be between 56% and 59% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$1.1k @ 30.9¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Lost
  Yes$100 @ 0.1¢
• Will the NYT front-page headlines say "Street" this week?Won
  No$1.2k @ 74.5¢
• SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?Won
  No$4.0k @ 53.9¢
• US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30?Lost
  Yes$30.9k @ 58.7¢
• Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5Lost
  Under$871 @ 17.0¢

Current positions

• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolitics
  Yes$72.5k @ 90.4¢
• Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$33.1k @ 53.8¢
• Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
  Yes$31.5k @ 63.0¢
• Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
  Yes$27.5k @ 58.1¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$25.8k @ 86.0¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$24.6k @ 70.4¢
• Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
  Yes$12.9k @ 85.0¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$11.0k @ 55.1¢
• Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Politics
  No$3.5k @ 70.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$3.5k @ 57.7¢
• Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$2.5k @ 49.0¢
• Nothing Ever Happens: 2026Politics
  Yes$2.1k @ 77.0¢
• Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
  Yes$733 @ 73.0¢
• Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$574 @ 83.2¢