0x6103…f2d9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x6103cbf5b98956b1c6c667a6557863b625edf2d9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.9pp

ROI

+138%

Win rate

18% @ 10.8¢

Brier

0.142

Resolved

135

Avg size

$158

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	8% (5/60)	+221%	60
Politics	6% (1/16)	+35%	16
Sports	20% (2/10)	-13%	10

Other60 bets
Hit rate
8% (5/60)
ROI
+221%
Politics16 bets
Hit rate
6% (1/16)
ROI
+35%
Sports10 bets
Hit rate
20% (2/10)
ROI
-13%

Track record

9% hit · 8/86

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half	Yes	$100	13.5¢	Lost
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Morocco?	Yes	$303	9.5¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET	Down	$22	8.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	Up	$140	29.4¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET	Down	$26	17.8¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET	Down	$18	12.1¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	Down	$72	25.2¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET	Up	$15	47.6¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET	Up	$30	9.1¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET	Down	$45	43.7¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET	Down	$41	39.7¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	Up	$86	16.3¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET	Down	$35	37.6¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET	Down	$5	5.4¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET	Up	$16	43.8¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Up	$8	23.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$855	26.8¢	Lost
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina?	Yes	$62	8.0¢	Won
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?	Yes	$18	14.0¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?	Yes	$2.2k	16.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday?	Yes	$12	1.6¢	Lost
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	$41	13.5¢	Lost
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$30	8.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$567	6.8¢	Lost
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by March 31?	Yes	$50	16.4¢	Lost
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay?	Yes	$41	17.0¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	No	$221	0.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	Yes	$200	4.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?	Yes	$72	21.9¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?	Yes	$133	3.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?	No	$30	27.7¢	Lost
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	No	$949	1.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$31	6.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?	Yes	$77	31.0¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	Yes	$100	11.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$1.3k	11.3¢	Lost
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Yes	$146	29.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Thank you" 5+ times during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday?	Yes	$25	4.9¢	Lost
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?	Yes	$5	1.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$4.3k	17.6¢	Lost
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Egypt?	Yes	$289	12.8¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?	No	$161	0.3¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$469	0.7¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$2.0k	5.9¢	Won
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Egypt?	Yes	$46	7.5¢	Won
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$372	4.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?	Yes	$382	5.3¢	Lost
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay?	Yes	$113	11.0¢	Lost
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?	Yes	$45	5.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?	Yes	$75	1.9¢	Lost

Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First HalfLost
Yes$100 @ 13.5¢
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Morocco?Lost
Yes$303 @ 9.5¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:35PM-3:40PM ETLost
Down$22 @ 8.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ETLost
Up$140 @ 29.4¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:10PM-4:15PM ETLost
Down$26 @ 17.8¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ETLost
Down$18 @ 12.1¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ETLost
Down$72 @ 25.2¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:10AM-4:15AM ETLost
Up$15 @ 47.6¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:20PM-4:25PM ETLost
Up$30 @ 9.1¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ETLost
Down$45 @ 43.7¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ETLost
Down$41 @ 39.7¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ETLost
Up$86 @ 16.3¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ETLost
Down$35 @ 37.6¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:05AM-3:10AM ETLost
Down$5 @ 5.4¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 1:15PM-1:20PM ETLost
Up$16 @ 43.8¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ETLost
Up$8 @ 23.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$855 @ 26.8¢
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina?Won
Yes$62 @ 8.0¢
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan?Lost
Yes$18 @ 14.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?Won
Yes$2.2k @ 16.8¢
Will Trump say "Peace in the Middle East" during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday?Lost
Yes$12 @ 1.6¢
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?Lost
Yes$41 @ 13.5¢
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$30 @ 8.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$567 @ 6.8¢
Will JD Vance talk to Iranian negotiators by March 31?Lost
Yes$50 @ 16.4¢
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay?Lost
Yes$41 @ 17.0¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?Lost
No$221 @ 0.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$200 @ 4.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?Lost
Yes$72 @ 21.9¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Lost
Yes$133 @ 3.5¢
Will Trump say "God" 3+ times during Address to the Nation?Lost
No$30 @ 27.7¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
No$949 @ 1.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$31 @ 6.0¢
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw?Won
Yes$77 @ 31.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?Lost
Yes$100 @ 11.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 11.3¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Lost
Yes$146 @ 29.0¢
Will Trump say "Thank you" 5+ times during the Easter Lunch on Wednesday?Lost
Yes$25 @ 4.9¢
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$4.3k @ 17.6¢
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Egypt?Lost
Yes$289 @ 12.8¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?Lost
No$161 @ 0.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$469 @ 0.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 5.9¢
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Egypt?Won
Yes$46 @ 7.5¢
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?Lost
Yes$372 @ 4.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$382 @ 5.3¢
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay?Lost
Yes$113 @ 11.0¢
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw?Won
Yes$45 @ 5.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$75 @ 1.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?	—	No	$944	1.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$855	26.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$478	11.8¢
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Sports	Yes	$361	4.5¢
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?	—	Yes	$350	12.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	—	No	$306	0.7¢
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Morocco?	—	Yes	$303	9.5¢
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay?	Sports	Yes	$296	6.1¢
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Egypt?	—	Yes	$282	12.8¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?	Politics	Yes	$277	3.9¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?	—	No	$221	0.1¢
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco?	—	Yes	$215	12.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?	—	Yes	$200	8.0¢
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Egypt?	—	Yes	$193	11.6¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$184	0.9¢
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt?	Sports	Yes	$145	14.0¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?	Sports	Yes	$143	29.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET	—	Up	$140	29.4¢
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Morocco?	—	Yes	$140	13.0¢
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco?	—	Yes	$120	17.0¢
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay?	—	Yes	$114	16.0¢
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay?	Sports	Yes	$110	11.0¢
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half	—	Yes	$100	13.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?	Politics	Yes	$100	11.9¢
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt?	Sports	Yes	$94	12.9¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET	—	Up	$86	16.3¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET	—	Down	$72	25.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?	Politics	Yes	$72	21.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?	—	Yes	$60	2.9¢
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina?	—	Yes	$57	16.0¢

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?—
No$944 @ 1.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$855 @ 26.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?Politics
Yes$478 @ 11.8¢
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?Sports
Yes$361 @ 4.5¢
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Morocco?—
Yes$350 @ 12.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?—
No$306 @ 0.7¢
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Morocco?—
Yes$303 @ 9.5¢
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay?Sports
Yes$296 @ 6.1¢
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Egypt?—
Yes$282 @ 12.8¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?Politics
Yes$277 @ 3.9¢
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?—
No$221 @ 0.1¢
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Morocco?—
Yes$215 @ 12.8¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April?—
Yes$200 @ 8.0¢
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Egypt?—
Yes$193 @ 11.6¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting?—
Yes$184 @ 0.9¢
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt?Sports
Yes$145 @ 14.0¢
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15?Sports
Yes$143 @ 29.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET—
Up$140 @ 29.4¢
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Morocco?—
Yes$140 @ 13.0¢
Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Morocco?—
Yes$120 @ 17.0¢
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay?—
Yes$114 @ 16.0¢
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 2 Uruguay?Sports
Yes$110 @ 11.0¢
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half—
Yes$100 @ 13.5¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Turkey?Politics
Yes$100 @ 11.9¢
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt?Sports
Yes$94 @ 12.9¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET—
Up$86 @ 16.3¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET—
Down$72 @ 25.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Egypt?Politics
Yes$72 @ 21.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April?—
Yes$60 @ 2.9¢
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina?—
Yes$57 @ 16.0¢