0x5fd5…382c

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5fd5fb75eb3508531a4e9cc28642fdf84cd4382c
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-6.9pp

ROI

+37%

Win rate

10% @ 17.1¢

Brier

0.050

Resolved

295

Avg size

$24

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	31% (15/48)	+77%	48
Politics	25% (3/12)	-45%	12
Geopolitics	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Tech	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other48 bets
Hit rate
31% (15/48)
ROI
+77%
Politics12 bets
Hit rate
25% (3/12)
ROI
-45%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

27% hit · 18/66

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?	Yes	$73	73.0¢	Won
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?	Yes	$82	82.0¢	Won
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	$2	4.0¢	Lost
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?	Yes	$5	0.8¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	Yes	$80	40.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$889	3.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$160	80.0¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$128	21.3¢	Lost
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$4	4.0¢	Lost
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$38	18.8¢	Lost
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	Yes	$4	4.0¢	Lost
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?	Yes	$25	24.8¢	Lost
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?	Yes	$40	20.0¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$20	0.2¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$176	88.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	Yes	$83	13.3¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$801	14.0¢	Won
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$152	76.0¢	Won
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	Yes	$250	2.5¢	Lost
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
D.C. United SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5	Over	$59	59.0¢	Lost
Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 2 over 20% on Friday?	Yes	$13	88.0¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31?	Yes	$3	1.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?	Yes	$174	57.0¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?	No	$176	88.0¢	Won
Government shutdown on Saturday?	Yes	$5	1.1¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	Yes	$98	14.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$20	1.1¢	Lost
Will the State of the Union begin between 9PM and 9:15PM ET?	Yes	$30	60.0¢	Won
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?	Yes	$11	0.6¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$160	80.0¢	Won
Will the State of the Union be 110 minutes or longer?	Yes	$136	63.8¢	Lost
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026?	No	$88	88.0¢	Won
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?	Yes	$24	12.2¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?	Yes	$528	30.0¢	Won
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	$6	6.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 3?	Yes	$8	0.7¢	Lost
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$11	22.0¢	Lost
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$22	22.0¢	Lost
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?	Yes	$12	6.0¢	Lost
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$92	23.0¢	Lost
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?	Yes	$11	11.0¢	Lost
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?	Yes	$90	30.0¢	Won
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?	Yes	$187	2.8¢	Lost
Orlando City SC vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 3.5	Over	$42	89.0¢	Won
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?	Yes	$171	85.5¢	Won
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?	Yes	$41	41.0¢	Lost
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?	Yes	$50	12.5¢	Lost
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?	Yes	$3	3.1¢	Lost
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?	No	$14	13.8¢	Lost

Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $80 by end of March?Won
Yes$73 @ 73.0¢
Will gas hit (High) $4.00 by March 31?Won
Yes$82 @ 82.0¢
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.0¢
Will Miguel Díaz-Canel be the next leader out before 2027?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.8¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Lost
Yes$80 @ 40.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$889 @ 3.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$160 @ 80.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$128 @ 21.3¢
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$38 @ 18.8¢
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.0¢
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$25 @ 24.8¢
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?Lost
Yes$40 @ 20.0¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$20 @ 0.2¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$176 @ 88.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Lost
Yes$83 @ 13.3¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$801 @ 14.0¢
Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$152 @ 76.0¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$250 @ 2.5¢
Will 75-99 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 25-June 1?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
D.C. United SC vs. Philadelphia Union: O/U 1.5Lost
Over$59 @ 59.0¢
Odds US strikes Iran by Feb 2 over 20% on Friday?Won
Yes$13 @ 88.0¢
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by March 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 1.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?Lost
Yes$174 @ 57.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?Won
No$176 @ 88.0¢
Government shutdown on Saturday?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Lost
Yes$98 @ 14.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$20 @ 1.1¢
Will the State of the Union begin between 9PM and 9:15PM ET?Won
Yes$30 @ 60.0¢
Epstein suicide note released by May 8?Lost
Yes$11 @ 0.6¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$160 @ 80.0¢
Will the State of the Union be 110 minutes or longer?Lost
Yes$136 @ 63.8¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by July 24, 2026?Won
No$88 @ 88.0¢
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?Lost
Yes$24 @ 12.2¢
US strikes Iran by March 7, 2026?Won
Yes$528 @ 30.0¢
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?Lost
Yes$6 @ 6.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 3?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.7¢
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 22.0¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$22 @ 22.0¢
Will 60-79 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 18-May 24?Lost
Yes$12 @ 6.0¢
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$92 @ 23.0¢
Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?Lost
Yes$11 @ 11.0¢
Will 40-59 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?Won
Yes$90 @ 30.0¢
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$187 @ 2.8¢
Orlando City SC vs. Inter Miami CF: O/U 3.5Won
Over$42 @ 89.0¢
Iran Strike on Israel by February 28?Won
Yes$171 @ 85.5¢
Will Lando Norris win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$41 @ 41.0¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by April 30?Lost
Yes$50 @ 12.5¢
Will Artemis II launch by March 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.1¢
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian nuclear facility?Lost
No$14 @ 13.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?	Politics	No	$40	4.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?	Politics	No	$29	2.9¢
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?	Geopolitics	Yes	$12	12.0¢
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$8	8.0¢
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 10, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3	3.2¢
Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$2	8.0¢

US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 9?Politics
No$40 @ 4.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 7?Politics
No$29 @ 2.9¢
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 4.6% and 4.9%?Geopolitics
Yes$12 @ 12.0¢
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 17, 2026?Politics
Yes$8 @ 8.0¢
Saudi troops fighting in Yemen by October 10, 2026?Politics
Yes$3 @ 3.2¢
Israel military action against Yemen by October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢