0x5e83…665b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5e8391f19ba5e3c23529b5d2394fdd3dc575665b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.2pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

51% @ 41.6¢

Brier

0.133

Resolved

132

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	68% (26/38)	+41%	38
Science	38% (10/26)	-10%	26
Politics	31% (5/16)	-49%	16
Sports	33% (4/12)	+16%	12
Culture	67% (4/6)	+114%	6
Geopolitics	33% (1/3)	-80%	3
Tech	100% (1/1)	+186%	1
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Business	100% (1/1)	+133%	1

Other38 bets
Hit rate
68% (26/38)
ROI
+41%
Science26 bets
Hit rate
38% (10/26)
ROI
-10%
Politics16 bets
Hit rate
31% (5/16)
ROI
-49%
Sports12 bets
Hit rate
33% (4/12)
ROI
+16%
Culture6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+114%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-80%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+186%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+133%

Track record

50% hit · 52/104

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	$3	32.0¢	Lost
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?	No	$10	85.0¢	Won
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?	Yes	$1	24.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 6?	No	$1	61.0¢	Lost
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?	Yes	$10	74.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 5?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 4?	No	$2	43.5¢	Won
Will Ilias Bulaid win by KO or TKO?	Yes	$3	38.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	$3	24.6¢	Lost
Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	$3	21.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19?	Yes	$2	5.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	$3	18.5¢	Won
Will Key (KEY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$1	75.0¢	Won
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	Yes	$20	7.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 4?	No	$2	53.5¢	Lost
US strike on Cuba by March 31?	Yes	$10	13.0¢	Lost
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$1	89.0¢	Won
US government shutdown Saturday?	Yes	$28	24.3¢	Won
Will Citizens Financial Group (CFG) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$1	86.0¢	Won
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?	No	$15	70.0¢	Won
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$3	43.0¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?	No	$1	86.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5?	No	$1	66.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	Yes	$3	41.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?	Yes	$3	19.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	$3	11.0¢	Lost
Nothing Ever Happens: January	No	$20	55.0¢	Won
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	Yes	$25	22.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5?	No	$2	68.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15?	No	$3	56.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15?	Yes	$0	1.2¢	Lost
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?	No	$8	48.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 17.5 and 20 million views on day 1?	Yes	$3	24.0¢	Won
Will PARIVISION win BLAST Slam VIII?	Yes	$3	29.0¢	Lost
Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?	Yes	$3	11.0¢	Lost
Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m?	Yes	$3	24.0¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?	Yes	$3	19.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4?	No	$1	59.0¢	Won
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	$3	38.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 4?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 16?	No	$6	45.6¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 16?	Yes	$4	64.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 11?	Yes	$3	28.0¢	Lost
Insurrection Act invoked by March 31?	Yes	$10	30.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 19?	Yes	$1	5.8¢	Lost
Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-11?	Yes	$3	35.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18?	Yes	$0	1.9¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17?	No	$4	77.2¢	Won
Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$1	84.0¢	Lost
Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?	Yes	$2	80.0¢	Won

Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-10-11?Lost
Yes$3 @ 32.0¢
Will Tim Walz resign by June 30?Won
No$10 @ 85.0¢
Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 24.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 6?Lost
No$1 @ 61.0¢
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?Won
Yes$10 @ 74.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 5?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 29°C on June 4?Won
No$2 @ 43.5¢
Will Ilias Bulaid win by KO or TKO?Lost
Yes$3 @ 38.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 24.6¢
Will Ariel Pakes win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 21.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19?Lost
Yes$2 @ 5.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 18.5¢
Will Key (KEY) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$1 @ 75.0¢
US strike on Mexico by January 31?Lost
Yes$20 @ 7.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 4?Lost
No$2 @ 53.5¢
US strike on Cuba by March 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 13.0¢
Will Morgan Stanley (MS) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$1 @ 89.0¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Won
Yes$28 @ 24.3¢
Will Citizens Financial Group (CFG) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$1 @ 86.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by January 31?Won
No$15 @ 70.0¢
Will Goldman Sachs (GS) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$3 @ 43.0¢
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31?Won
No$1 @ 86.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 5?Won
No$1 @ 66.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 41.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 10 to October 12, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 19.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 11.0¢
Nothing Ever Happens: JanuaryWon
No$20 @ 55.0¢
US strike on Mexico by March 31?Lost
Yes$25 @ 22.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 5?Won
No$2 @ 68.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15?Won
No$3 @ 56.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on June 15?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.2¢
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?Lost
No$8 @ 48.0¢
Will MrBeast Gaming's next video get between 17.5 and 20 million views on day 1?Won
Yes$3 @ 24.0¢
Will PARIVISION win BLAST Slam VIII?Lost
Yes$3 @ 29.0¢
Will Susan Athey win the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 11.0¢
Will "The Social Reckoning" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5m and 7m?Won
Yes$3 @ 24.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from October 6 to October 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 19.1¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4?Won
No$1 @ 59.0¢
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-10-11?Lost
Yes$3 @ 38.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on June 4?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 16?Won
No$6 @ 45.6¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on June 16?Lost
Yes$4 @ 64.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on October 11?Lost
Yes$3 @ 28.0¢
Insurrection Act invoked by March 31?Lost
Yes$10 @ 30.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 31°C on June 19?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.8¢
Will AS Roma win on 2026-10-11?Lost
Yes$3 @ 35.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 18?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.9¢
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on June 17?Won
No$4 @ 77.2¢
Will Citigroup (C) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
Yes$1 @ 84.0¢
Will Dr Patrick Herminie win the 2025 Seychelles presidential election?Won
Yes$2 @ 80.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?	Tech	No	$44	79.0¢
CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 89% to 90.5%?	Other	No	$14	70.0¢
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7?	Culture	Yes	$8	40.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-06 House election by 15%-20%?	Politics	Yes	$6	30.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-04 House election by 25%-30%?	Politics	Yes	$6	29.8¢
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$2	25.0¢
Will United Torah Judaism win 5-6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$2	45.0¢
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-10-26?	Sports	Yes	$2	44.0¢
Will Shannon Weber win the 2026 Waterloo mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$2	43.6¢
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$2	39.0¢
Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$2	31.0¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?	Politics	Yes	$2	30.0¢
Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$2	28.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	Yes	$2	28.0¢
Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?	Economy	Yes	$2	26.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2	22.0¢
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2	19.5¢
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?	Politics	Yes	$2	19.0¢
Will Yisrael Beiteinu win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?	Politics	Yes	$2	18.5¢
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Politics	Yes	$2	18.6¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$2	16.3¢
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%?	Economy	Yes	$2	13.0¢
Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$2	11.5¢

Will GPT Astra 6.1+ debut with an HLE-Diamond score of 70% or higher?Tech
No$44 @ 79.0¢
CVS Health (CVS) Q3 medical benefit ratio (MBR) 89% to 90.5%?Other
No$14 @ 70.0¢
Will "Choosin' Texas - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7?Culture
Yes$8 @ 40.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 TN-06 House election by 15%-20%?Politics
Yes$6 @ 30.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 KY-04 House election by 25%-30%?Politics
Yes$6 @ 29.8¢
Will Likud win 25-29 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$2 @ 25.0¢
Will United Torah Judaism win 5-6% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$2 @ 45.0¢
Will Coritiba FBC win on 2026-10-26?Sports
Yes$2 @ 44.0¢
Will Shannon Weber win the 2026 Waterloo mayoral election?Politics
Yes$2 @ 43.6¢
Will Brad Bradford win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Politics
Yes$2 @ 39.0¢
Will Yashar win the second-most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$2 @ 31.0¢
Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Politics
Yes$2 @ 30.0¢
Will Carolyn Parrish win the 2026 Mississauga mayoral election?Politics
Yes$2 @ 28.0¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
Yes$2 @ 28.0¢
Will no one dissent the October Fed decision?Economy
Yes$2 @ 26.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 27, 2026?Tech
Yes$2 @ 22.0¢
Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 27, 2026?Tech
Yes$2 @ 19.5¢
Israel Election: Any Coalition Wins a Majority?Politics
Yes$2 @ 19.0¢
Will Yisrael Beiteinu win less than 5% of the vote in the 2026 Knesset elections?Politics
Yes$2 @ 18.5¢
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?Politics
Yes$2 @ 18.6¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$2 @ 16.3¢
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q3 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%?Economy
Yes$2 @ 13.0¢
Will Jeff Leiper win the 2026 Ottawa mayoral election?Politics
Yes$2 @ 11.5¢