0x5e73…6697

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5e73afb20c2b27caccdaad9e49b97fd336576697
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.0pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

58% @ 52.4¢

Brier

0.162

Resolved

4176

Avg size

$152

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (334/668)	+18%	668
Politics	47% (72/154)	+19%	154
Geopolitics	37% (11/30)	-74%	30
Tech	50% (3/6)	-50%	6
Economy	50% (1/2)	-70%	2
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other668 bets
Hit rate
50% (334/668)
ROI
+18%
Politics154 bets
Hit rate
47% (72/154)
ROI
+19%
Geopolitics30 bets
Hit rate
37% (11/30)
ROI
-74%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
50% (3/6)
ROI
-50%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-70%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

49% hit · 421/862

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Labour leadership election scheduled by March 31?	No	$111	58.5¢	Won
Will Kevin Hern replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?	Yes	$9	5.0¢	Lost
Will the government shutdown last 21 days or more?	Yes	$36	6.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$18	18.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$4.9k	84.5¢	Won
James Comey’s indictment dismissed before trial?	Yes	$246	69.9¢	Won
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 10%?	Yes	$33	19.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	$254	17.0¢	Lost
North Korea missile launch by January 31?	Yes	$391	88.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "Corn" during Iowa speech?	Yes	$65	65.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?	Yes	$160	40.0¢	Won
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?	Yes	$75	37.5¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 by December 31, 2025?	Yes	$481	82.3¢	Won
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?	No	$271	82.3¢	Won
Will the government shutdown end November 12?	No	$44	44.0¢	Won
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31?	No	$29	88.0¢	Won
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31?	Yes	$203	36.1¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?	No	$0	16.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	No	$88	88.0¢	Won
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?	Yes	$170	13.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Thank you" 10+ times during the private dinner on November 12?	No	$32	32.0¢	Won
Trump declares a national emergency by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$86	64.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$311	17.0¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	No	$534	89.0¢	Won
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?	Yes	$658	17.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?	Yes	$42	16.6¢	Lost
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	25.0¢	Lost
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?	Yes	$30	30.0¢	Won
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?	No	$178	89.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?	Yes	$140	11.2¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on December 11?	Yes	$90	28.3¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$11	5.4¢	Lost
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?	Yes	$10	6.7¢	Lost
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	47.2¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$128	64.9¢	Won
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?	Yes	$22	36.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 26?	Yes	$72	6.1¢	Lost
Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?	Yes	$207	40.0¢	Lost
Will Keir Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?	Yes	$51	73.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?	No	$301	14.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?	Yes	$29	2.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	Yes	$6	68.0¢	Lost
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	No	$3.0k	77.5¢	Won
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$1.2k	30.6¢	Lost
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?	No	$39	78.0¢	Won
Will Lucy Powell win the UK Labour Party’s Deputy Leadership election?	Yes	$17	83.0¢	Won
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$82	82.0¢	Won
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	Yes	$3.7k	50.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Economy" during Fed chair announcement?	No	$50	84.0¢	Won

Labour leadership election scheduled by March 31?Won
No$111 @ 58.5¢
Will Kevin Hern replace Markwayne Mullin as United States Senator from Oklahoma?Lost
Yes$9 @ 5.0¢
Will the government shutdown last 21 days or more?Lost
Yes$36 @ 6.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$18 @ 18.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$4.9k @ 84.5¢
James Comey’s indictment dismissed before trial?Won
Yes$246 @ 69.9¢
Odds of Russia x Ukraine ceasefire on Friday over 10%?Lost
Yes$33 @ 19.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Lost
Yes$254 @ 17.0¢
North Korea missile launch by January 31?Won
Yes$391 @ 88.1¢
Will Trump say "Corn" during Iowa speech?Lost
Yes$65 @ 65.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April?Won
Yes$160 @ 40.0¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by January 31?Lost
Yes$75 @ 37.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $100,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
Yes$481 @ 82.3¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?Won
No$271 @ 82.3¢
Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
No$44 @ 44.0¢
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31?Won
No$29 @ 88.0¢
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks by December 31?Lost
Yes$203 @ 36.1¢
Will Trump talk to Zohran Mamdani in November?Lost
No$0 @ 16.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Won
No$88 @ 88.0¢
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?Lost
Yes$170 @ 13.6¢
Will Trump say "Thank you" 10+ times during the private dinner on November 12?Won
No$32 @ 32.0¢
Trump declares a national emergency by March 31, 2026?Won
Yes$86 @ 64.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$311 @ 17.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Won
No$534 @ 89.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 4?Lost
Yes$658 @ 17.0¢
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in November?Lost
Yes$42 @ 16.6¢
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$8 @ 25.0¢
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?Won
Yes$30 @ 30.0¢
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 6?Won
No$178 @ 89.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?Lost
Yes$140 @ 11.2¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on December 11?Lost
Yes$90 @ 28.3¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$11 @ 5.4¢
Will Angeliki Stogia - Labour win the Gorton and Denton by-election?Lost
Yes$10 @ 6.7¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 47.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$128 @ 64.9¢
Will Khamenei tweet again by March 14?Won
Yes$22 @ 36.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 26?Lost
Yes$72 @ 6.1¢
Will Netherlands participate in Eurovision 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
Lecornu out as French PM by December 31?Lost
Yes$207 @ 40.0¢
Will Keir Starmer say "Police" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Lost
Yes$51 @ 73.0¢
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$301 @ 14.9¢
Will Donald Trump announce Harmeet Dhillon as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?Lost
Yes$29 @ 2.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Lost
Yes$6 @ 68.0¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$3.0k @ 77.5¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 30.6¢
Trump announces tariff for Iran military cooperation by April 17?Won
No$39 @ 78.0¢
Will Lucy Powell win the UK Labour Party’s Deputy Leadership election?Won
Yes$17 @ 83.0¢
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$82 @ 82.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$3.7k @ 50.3¢
Will Trump say "Economy" during Fed chair announcement?Won
No$50 @ 84.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$19.3k	59.6¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$5.6k	68.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$4.8k	47.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$2.4k	88.3¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$2.3k	38.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.9k	77.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.7k	48.8¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1.2k	72.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$961	58.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$930	30.4¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	Politics	Yes	$772	54.8¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$728	29.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$642	55.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$603	52.3¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$602	74.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?	Other	Yes	$509	20.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$483	22.0¢
US congress stock trading ban before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$462	24.0¢
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$443	19.5¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$422	24.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?	Other	Yes	$359	35.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$338	39.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$331	66.2¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$291	28.5¢
JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?	Politics	Yes	$278	80.0¢
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$277	40.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$250	50.0¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$248	49.6¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?	Sports	Yes	$242	18.0¢
Government shutdown by October 1?	Politics	No	$224	80.1¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$19.3k @ 59.6¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
Yes$5.6k @ 68.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$4.8k @ 47.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Politics
No$2.4k @ 88.3¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$2.3k @ 38.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?Politics
Yes$1.9k @ 77.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
No$1.7k @ 48.8¢
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1.2k @ 72.1¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$961 @ 58.0¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$930 @ 30.4¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?Politics
Yes$772 @ 54.8¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$728 @ 29.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Tech
No$642 @ 55.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$603 @ 52.3¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$602 @ 74.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in September?Other
Yes$509 @ 20.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$483 @ 22.0¢
US congress stock trading ban before 2027?Politics
Yes$462 @ 24.0¢
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$443 @ 19.5¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?Politics
Yes$422 @ 24.5¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in September?Other
Yes$359 @ 35.6¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$338 @ 39.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$331 @ 66.2¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics
Yes$291 @ 28.5¢
JD Vance Republican nomination odds leader on October 31?Politics
Yes$278 @ 80.0¢
Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?Politics
Yes$277 @ 40.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$250 @ 50.0¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Politics
Yes$248 @ 49.6¢
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?Sports
Yes$242 @ 18.0¢
Government shutdown by October 1?Politics
No$224 @ 80.1¢