0x5e73…6697

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5e73afb20c2b27caccdaad9e49b97fd336576697
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.8pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

58% @ 52.6¢

Brier

0.162

Resolved

4171

Avg size

$158

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	50% (343/687)	+17%	687
Politics	46% (107/233)	+14%	233
Geopolitics	34% (13/38)	-68%	38
Tech	33% (2/6)	-75%	6
Economy	50% (2/4)	-50%	4
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other687 bets
Hit rate
50% (343/687)
ROI
+17%
Politics233 bets
Hit rate
46% (107/233)
ROI
+14%
Geopolitics38 bets
Hit rate
34% (13/38)
ROI
-68%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-75%
Economy4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
-50%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

48% hit · 467/970

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Yes	$158	9.0¢	Lost
Will James Murray be in the Burnham cabinet?	Yes	$3	30.0¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of July 13 2026?	No	$25	25.0¢	Lost
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 20?	No	$35	35.0¢	Lost
Will FISA Section 702 be reauthorized by July 31?	Yes	$23	50.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026?	Yes	$80	29.0¢	Lost
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 8?	Up	$255	17.0¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of August 10 2026?	Yes	$25	9.0¢	Lost
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30?	Yes	$97	43.5¢	Lost
Erling Haaland: 1+ shots	Yes	$200	63.5¢	Lost
Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16?	Yes	$347	62.7¢	Won
Will Trump accuse Iran of election interference by July 16?	No	$70	70.0¢	Won
Will Trump admin declassify foreign election interference files by July 17?	Yes	$256	54.0¢	Won
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?	Yes	$54	11.0¢	Lost
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?	No	$111	74.0¢	Won
England-Mexico game rescheduled to different time?	No	$80	80.1¢	Lost
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?	Yes	$305	14.2¢	Lost
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?	Yes	$204	57.0¢	Won
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?	Yes	$88	41.8¢	Won
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?	Yes	$131	85.5¢	Lost
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?	Yes	$40	40.0¢	Won
French election called by June 30, 2026?	No	$365	84.7¢	Won
Will Ed Miliband be in the Burnham cabinet?	Yes	$378	88.9¢	Won
Will Doug Burgum be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?	Yes	$0	1.2¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?	Yes	$0	27.0¢	Lost
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Yes	$40	39.5¢	Won
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?	No	$46	61.0¢	Lost
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?	Yes	$134	61.0¢	Won
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R House	Yes	$65	4.4¢	Lost
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	$961	58.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?	Yes	$467	80.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$414	69.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$395	79.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$484	22.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?	Yes	$38	26.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$195	65.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	$52	15.9¢	Won
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	No	$87	29.0¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?	Yes	$93	14.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$250	50.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	36.0¢	Lost
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$31	10.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?	No	$162	27.0¢	Won
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	$91	90.9¢	Won
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?	Yes	$78	28.9¢	Lost
Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by October 31?	No	$274	69.4¢	Won
Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by October 31?	Yes	$124	39.5¢	Lost
Will the IEA ask France to release oil stocks by October 31?	No	$81	73.6¢	Won
Will the IEA ask France to release oil stocks by October 31?	Yes	$15	38.0¢	Lost
Trump Admin held in contempt over press ban by October 31?	Yes	$6	12.0¢	Lost

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Lost
Yes$158 @ 9.0¢
Will James Murray be in the Burnham cabinet?Lost
Yes$3 @ 30.0¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of July 13 2026?Lost
No$25 @ 25.0¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $740 on July 20?Lost
No$35 @ 35.0¢
Will FISA Section 702 be reauthorized by July 31?Lost
Yes$23 @ 50.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 Week of August 10 2026?Lost
Yes$80 @ 29.0¢
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 8?Lost
Up$255 @ 17.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 Week of August 10 2026?Lost
Yes$25 @ 9.0¢
Insurrection Act invoked by June 30?Lost
Yes$97 @ 43.5¢
Erling Haaland: 1+ shotsLost
Yes$200 @ 63.5¢
Will Trump accuse China of election interference by July 16?Won
Yes$347 @ 62.7¢
Will Trump accuse Iran of election interference by July 16?Won
No$70 @ 70.0¢
Will Trump admin declassify foreign election interference files by July 17?Won
Yes$256 @ 54.0¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?Lost
Yes$54 @ 11.0¢
Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?Won
No$111 @ 74.0¢
England-Mexico game rescheduled to different time?Lost
No$80 @ 80.1¢
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 17?Lost
Yes$305 @ 14.2¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?Won
Yes$204 @ 57.0¢
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 7?Won
Yes$88 @ 41.8¢
Will Waymo launch in Dallas by June 30 2026?Lost
Yes$131 @ 85.5¢
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?Won
Yes$40 @ 40.0¢
French election called by June 30, 2026?Won
No$365 @ 84.7¢
Will Ed Miliband be in the Burnham cabinet?Won
Yes$378 @ 88.9¢
Will Doug Burgum be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.2¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-21 House seat?Lost
Yes$0 @ 27.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
Yes$40 @ 39.5¢
Bank of England rate hike in 2026?Lost
No$46 @ 61.0¢
Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.70% before 2027?Won
Yes$134 @ 61.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, R HouseLost
Yes$65 @ 4.4¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseWon
Yes$961 @ 58.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$467 @ 80.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
Yes$414 @ 69.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$395 @ 79.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Lost
Yes$484 @ 22.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?Lost
Yes$38 @ 26.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$195 @ 65.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$52 @ 15.9¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Won
No$87 @ 29.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the PA-08 House seat?Lost
Yes$93 @ 14.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$250 @ 50.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 36.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?Lost
Yes$31 @ 10.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 8?Won
No$162 @ 27.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Won
No$91 @ 90.9¢
Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by October 31?Lost
Yes$78 @ 28.9¢
Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by October 31?Won
No$274 @ 69.4¢
Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by October 31?Lost
Yes$124 @ 39.5¢
Will the IEA ask France to release oil stocks by October 31?Won
No$81 @ 73.6¢
Will the IEA ask France to release oil stocks by October 31?Lost
Yes$15 @ 38.0¢
Trump Admin held in contempt over press ban by October 31?Lost
Yes$6 @ 12.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$20.4k	55.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?	—	Yes	$9.1k	35.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$4.3k	68.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.9k	47.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.8k	41.7¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.3k	32.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$3.1k	45.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2.6k	30.8¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.8k	40.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.6k	22.2¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.5k	48.8¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.5k	80.6¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.4k	83.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	27.6¢
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	Politics	No	$1.1k	52.7¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	30.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$1.0k	28.4¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?	Politics	No	$921	59.4¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	Tech	No	$871	38.8¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?	Politics	Yes	$820	46.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?	—	Yes	$804	66.0¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	Politics	Yes	$772	54.8¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?	—	Yes	$748	11.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$686	29.0¢
Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by December 31?	Politics	No	$683	53.0¢
Will Trump say "Tariff" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?	—	No	$644	78.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?	Tech	No	$642	55.0¢
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 8?	—	Up	$621	13.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$578	21.6¢
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September?	—	Yes	$552	82.9¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$20.4k @ 55.3¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?—
Yes$9.1k @ 35.0¢
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by September 30?Politics
Yes$4.3k @ 68.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$3.9k @ 47.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$3.8k @ 41.7¢
Will an independent win the Nebraska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$3.3k @ 32.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics
Yes$3.1k @ 45.3¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$2.6k @ 30.8¢
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.8k @ 40.9¢
Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.6k @ 22.2¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
No$1.5k @ 48.8¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Politics
No$1.5k @ 80.6¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.4k @ 83.5¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 27.6¢
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?Politics
No$1.1k @ 52.7¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 30.9¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$1.0k @ 28.4¢
Trump renames AI by September 30?Politics
No$921 @ 59.4¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Tech
No$871 @ 38.8¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31?Politics
Yes$820 @ 46.5¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?—
Yes$804 @ 66.0¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?Politics
Yes$772 @ 54.8¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by March 13?—
Yes$748 @ 11.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the FL-27 House seat?Politics
Yes$686 @ 29.0¢
Will the IEA ask Germany to release oil stocks by December 31?Politics
No$683 @ 53.0¢
Will Trump say "Tariff" during speech to Israeli Parliament on October 13?—
No$644 @ 78.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Tech
No$642 @ 55.0¢
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on July 8?—
Up$621 @ 13.8¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$578 @ 21.6¢
Will Trump talk to Vladimir Putin in September?—
Yes$552 @ 82.9¢