0x5e73…6697

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5e73afb20c2b27caccdaad9e49b97fd336576697
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.9pp

ROI

+36%

Win rate

68% @ 54.3¢

Brier

0.200

Resolved

242

Avg size

$249

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	44% (21/48)	+28%	48
Other	59% (24/41)	+26%	41
Geopolitics	20% (1/5)	-53%	5
Tech	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Politics48 bets
Hit rate
44% (21/48)
ROI
+28%
Other41 bets
Hit rate
59% (24/41)
ROI
+26%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-53%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

48% hit · 46/96

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$11	5.4¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	No	$5.0k	79.0¢	Won
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 8?	No	$195	75.0¢	Won
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 8?	Yes	$874	21.6¢	Lost
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$21	3.9¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?	Yes	$29	0.1¢	Lost
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?	No	$374	74.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 25?	Yes	$13	1.8¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$93	46.6¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$171	85.4¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$156	26.0¢	Lost
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$160	76.5¢	Won
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	$904	86.6¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	No	$526	82.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$1.6k	19.4¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$179	63.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$727	51.1¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?	No	$193	3.1¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	No	$1.2k	55.0¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$18.4k	43.5¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	No	$280	70.1¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.0k	28.9¢	Won
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?	No	$5	9.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$14.9k	60.7¢	Lost
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$7.3k	41.1¢	Won
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?	Yes	$269	76.7¢	Won
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility?	No	$21	21.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	$112	56.0¢	Won
Graham Platner drops out before Maine Senate Dem primary?	No	$5	62.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$677	84.7¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$177	15.9¢	Lost
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$1.1k	89.3¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	Yes	$1.3k	84.3¢	Lost
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on May 6?	No	$13	5.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	Yes	$62	5.2¢	Lost
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?	Yes	$271	82.2¢	Won
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	No	$84	84.0¢	Won
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?	Yes	$21	7.0¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?	Yes	$254	17.0¢	Lost
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?	No	$1.1k	36.3¢	Lost
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?	Yes	$736	80.6¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$258	75.0¢	Won
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?	Yes	$530	57.0¢	Lost
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$26	0.9¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?	Yes	$105	15.0¢	Lost
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?	Yes	$2.3k	54.3¢	Lost
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?	Yes	$82	82.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$411	10.4¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	No	$337	84.2¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?	Yes	$80	14.9¢	Lost

Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$11 @ 5.4¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Won
No$5.0k @ 79.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 8?Won
No$195 @ 75.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on May 8?Lost
Yes$874 @ 21.6¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Lost
Yes$21 @ 3.9¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Iran?Lost
Yes$29 @ 0.1¢
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?Won
No$374 @ 74.0¢
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 25?Lost
Yes$13 @ 1.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$93 @ 46.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$171 @ 85.4¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$156 @ 26.0¢
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Won
No$160 @ 76.5¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?Won
Yes$904 @ 86.6¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
No$526 @ 82.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.6k @ 19.4¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$179 @ 63.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$727 @ 51.1¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 30?Lost
No$193 @ 3.1¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Lost
No$1.2k @ 55.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$18.4k @ 43.5¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$280 @ 70.1¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$3.0k @ 28.9¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19?Lost
No$5 @ 9.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$14.9k @ 60.7¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$7.3k @ 41.1¢
Will Claire Valdez be the Democratic nominee for NY-07?Won
Yes$269 @ 76.7¢
SpaceX IPO: Trading Halted for Volatility?Won
No$21 @ 21.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Won
Yes$112 @ 56.0¢
Graham Platner drops out before Maine Senate Dem primary?Won
No$5 @ 62.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$677 @ 84.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$177 @ 15.9¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$1.1k @ 89.3¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Lost
Yes$1.3k @ 84.3¢
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $715 on May 6?Lost
No$13 @ 5.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$62 @ 5.2¢
Will the Court Force Trump to Refund Tariffs?Won
Yes$271 @ 82.2¢
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?Won
No$84 @ 84.0¢
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China?Lost
Yes$21 @ 7.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June?Lost
Yes$254 @ 17.0¢
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?Lost
No$1.1k @ 36.3¢
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?Won
Yes$736 @ 80.6¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$258 @ 75.0¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June?Lost
Yes$530 @ 57.0¢
Starmer out by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 0.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Lost
Yes$105 @ 15.0¢
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17?Lost
Yes$2.3k @ 54.3¢
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15?Won
Yes$82 @ 82.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$411 @ 10.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?Won
No$337 @ 84.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$80 @ 14.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$19.3k	59.6¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$8.9k	61.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	—	Yes	$3.2k	50.4¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$2.2k	38.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$1.8k	78.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.5k	61.6¢
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$1.4k	36.9¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$900	75.0¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?	Politics	Yes	$772	54.8¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$742	29.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$603	52.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$578	21.6¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$522	87.0¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?	—	Yes	$494	86.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$484	22.0¢
US congress stock trading ban before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$462	24.0¢
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$443	19.5¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$422	24.5¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?	—	Yes	$416	64.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$338	39.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$331	66.2¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	—	No	$319	90.9¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$291	28.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?	—	No	$289	96.5¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?	—	No	$286	69.2¢
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%?	Politics	No	$261	89.6¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$248	49.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$241	48.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	—	No	$229	15.0¢
Government shutdown by October 1?	—	No	$224	80.1¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$19.3k @ 59.6¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$8.9k @ 61.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?—
Yes$3.2k @ 50.4¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$2.2k @ 38.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?—
Yes$1.8k @ 78.9¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
No$1.5k @ 61.6¢
Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?—
Yes$1.4k @ 36.9¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$900 @ 75.0¢
Will FISA Section 702 reauthorization become law this year?Politics
Yes$772 @ 54.8¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$742 @ 29.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Politics
Yes$603 @ 52.3¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$578 @ 21.6¢
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting?—
Yes$522 @ 87.0¢
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?—
Yes$494 @ 86.0¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$484 @ 22.0¢
US congress stock trading ban before 2027?Politics
Yes$462 @ 24.0¢
Ukraine election called by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$443 @ 19.5¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "Indonesia" before 2027?Politics
Yes$422 @ 24.5¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?—
Yes$416 @ 64.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$338 @ 39.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$331 @ 66.2¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?—
No$319 @ 90.9¢
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "India" before 2027?Politics
Yes$291 @ 28.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?—
No$289 @ 96.5¢
Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?—
No$286 @ 69.2¢
Will Micah Lasher win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by 10–15%?Politics
No$261 @ 89.6¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Politics
Yes$248 @ 49.6¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?—
Yes$241 @ 48.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?—
No$229 @ 15.0¢
Government shutdown by October 1?—
No$224 @ 80.1¢