0x5d91…3578

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5d91954919c7c729cc0dc4c82c62d336132f3578
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+11.4pp

ROI

+29%

Win rate

65% @ 53.4¢

Brier

0.205

Resolved

1089

Avg size

$126

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	54% (126/234)	+39%	234
Sports	53% (56/105)	-11%	105
Politics	83% (25/30)	+27%	30
Geopolitics	60% (15/25)	-3%	25
Tech	33% (1/3)	-40%	3
Science	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Business	100% (1/1)	+62%	1

Other234 bets
Hit rate
54% (126/234)
ROI
+39%
Sports105 bets
Hit rate
53% (56/105)
ROI
-11%
Politics30 bets
Hit rate
83% (25/30)
ROI
+27%
Geopolitics25 bets
Hit rate
60% (15/25)
ROI
-3%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-40%
Science2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+62%

Track record

56% hit · 224/400

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat?	No	$55	73.3¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat?	Yes	$77	63.0¢	Won
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	$55	63.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Yes	$222	44.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$55	62.0¢	Won
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?	No	$635	55.3¢	Won
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$153	16.1¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31?	No	$1.2k	72.8¢	Won
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?	No	$3.0k	64.1¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?	No	$4.4k	50.5¢	Lost
Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$7	65.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Yes	$50	68.0¢	Won
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5)	Team Spirit	$192	57.8¢	Lost
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3)	Team Liquid	$51	45.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31?	No	$2.6k	56.4¢	Won
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?	Yes	$5	2.5¢	Lost
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to Advance	Argentina	$528	74.0¢	Won
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Yes	$15	7.7¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner	FURIA	$51	62.9¢	Won
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5	Under	$113	69.0¢	Won
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winner	Aurora	$23	37.0¢	Lost
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees	New York Yankees	$34	49.7¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$34	14.7¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	Monte	$31	31.0¢	Lost
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$33	14.3¢	Lost
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees	New York Yankees	$158	60.0¢	Won
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)	Alex Pereira	$109	51.5¢	Lost
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?	No	$500	44.7¢	Won
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 Winner	Natus Vincere	$70	28.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?	Yes	$3.0k	68.7¢	Won
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	No	$6.5k	45.4¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner	Team Falcons	$51	49.0¢	Won
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?	Yes	$36	23.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?	Yes	$132	68.6¢	Won
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?	No	$1.2k	50.1¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs INOX Division (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #1 Playoffs	Nemiga	$31	62.0¢	Won
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$91	41.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?	No	$733	40.5¢	Won
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by January 31?	No	$61	30.5¢	Won
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Tidebound - Game 1 Winner	Team Tidebound	$25	36.5¢	Lost
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-08-15?	Yes	$34	46.0¢	Lost
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	$15	71.0¢	Won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5	Under	$113	68.0¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3	MOUZ	$81	57.6¢	Lost
Cowboys vs. Giants	Cowboys	$172	60.0¢	Lost
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)	Nikita Krylov	$170	46.6¢	Lost
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)	Robert Whittaker	$127	62.4¢	Won
Will Palantir Technologies (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$3	65.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$512	19.9¢	Won
Will Russia enter Svitle by April 30?	No	$1.5k	83.8¢	Won

Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat?Won
No$55 @ 73.3¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat?Won
Yes$77 @ 63.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseWon
Yes$55 @ 63.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Won
Yes$222 @ 44.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$55 @ 62.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026?Won
No$635 @ 55.3¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$153 @ 16.1¢
Will Russia capture Kucheriv Yar by October 31?Won
No$1.2k @ 72.8¢
Will Russia capture Svitle by October 31?Lost
No$3.0k @ 64.1¢
Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?Lost
No$4.4k @ 50.5¢
Will Sunoco (SUN) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
Yes$7 @ 65.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Won
Yes$50 @ 68.0¢
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs MOUZ (BO5)Lost
Team Spirit$192 @ 57.8¢
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs Team Liquid (BO3)Lost
Team Liquid$51 @ 45.0¢
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by March 31?Won
No$2.6k @ 56.4¢
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.5¢
Argentina vs. Switzerland: Team to AdvanceWon
Argentina$528 @ 74.0¢
Will G2 win IEM Cologne Major 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 7.7¢
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 WinnerWon
FURIA$51 @ 62.9¢
Texas Rangers vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Won
Under$113 @ 69.0¢
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Falcons - Game 2 WinnerLost
Aurora$23 @ 37.0¢
Boston Red Sox vs. New York YankeesLost
New York Yankees$34 @ 49.7¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$34 @ 14.7¢
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Lost
Monte$31 @ 31.0¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$33 @ 14.3¢
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York YankeesWon
New York Yankees$158 @ 60.0¢
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card)Lost
Alex Pereira$109 @ 51.5¢
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?Won
No$500 @ 44.7¢
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Natus Vincere - Game 4 WinnerLost
Natus Vincere$70 @ 28.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by March 31?Won
Yes$3.0k @ 68.7¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Won
No$6.5k @ 45.4¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 WinnerWon
Team Falcons$51 @ 49.0¢
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?Lost
Yes$36 @ 23.7¢
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?Won
Yes$132 @ 68.6¢
Will Russia capture Rodynske by January 31?Won
No$1.2k @ 50.1¢
Counter-Strike: Nemiga vs INOX Division (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series #1 PlayoffsWon
Nemiga$31 @ 62.0¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
Yes$91 @ 41.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?Won
No$733 @ 40.5¢
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by January 31?Won
No$61 @ 30.5¢
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Tidebound - Game 1 WinnerLost
Team Tidebound$25 @ 36.5¢
Will San Jose Earthquakes win on 2026-08-15?Lost
Yes$34 @ 46.0¢
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17?Won
Yes$15 @ 71.0¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Lost
Under$113 @ 68.0¢
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3Lost
MOUZ$81 @ 57.6¢
Cowboys vs. GiantsLost
Cowboys$172 @ 60.0¢
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)Lost
Nikita Krylov$170 @ 46.6¢
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)Won
Robert Whittaker$127 @ 62.4¢
Will Palantir Technologies (PLTR) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$3 @ 65.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$512 @ 19.9¢
Will Russia enter Svitle by April 30?Won
No$1.5k @ 83.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$4.3k	69.0¢
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.9k	71.9¢
Will Russia enter Bilozerske by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$1.3k	65.6¢
Will Russia enter Bilozerske by November 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$945	73.9¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$666	56.6¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$665	25.6¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$599	79.6¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$226	23.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$222	61.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$222	14.5¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$200	14.4¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$167	23.9¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?	Politics	No	$144	27.7¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$77	63.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$75	7.3¢
Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat?	Politics	No	$55	73.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$55	62.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$48	4.4¢
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	Tech	Yes	$25	10.0¢
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?	Tech	Yes	$25	10.3¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$25	30.8¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$25	3.1¢
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$15	0.9¢
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$15	1.0¢
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$10	1.0¢
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$10	0.8¢
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$10	0.8¢

Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$4.3k @ 69.0¢
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1.9k @ 71.9¢
Will Russia enter Bilozerske by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$1.3k @ 65.6¢
Will Russia enter Bilozerske by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
No$945 @ 73.9¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$666 @ 56.6¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$665 @ 25.6¢
Will Russia enter Sloviansk by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$599 @ 79.6¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$226 @ 23.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$222 @ 61.0¢
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$222 @ 14.5¢
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$200 @ 14.4¢
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$167 @ 23.9¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by November 30, 2026?Politics
No$144 @ 27.7¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat?Politics
Yes$77 @ 63.0¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$75 @ 7.3¢
Will the Republican Party win the MI-07 House seat?Politics
No$55 @ 73.3¢
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$55 @ 62.0¢
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$48 @ 4.4¢
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Tech
Yes$25 @ 10.0¢
Will Donald Trump be the #1 searched person on Google in the US this year?Tech
Yes$25 @ 10.3¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$25 @ 30.8¢
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$25 @ 3.1¢
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$15 @ 0.9¢
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$15 @ 1.0¢
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$10 @ 1.0¢
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$10 @ 0.8¢
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$10 @ 0.8¢