0x5d83…0bb9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5d83c3963c790b9760e6ac0e55878320cafa0bb9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.5pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

55% @ 44.5¢

Brier

0.185

Resolved

1509

Avg size

$121

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	53% (184/344)	+5%	344
Tech	80% (4/5)	+44%	5
Politics	100% (1/1)	+30%	1

Other344 bets
Hit rate
53% (184/344)
ROI
+5%
Tech5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+44%
Politics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+30%

Track record

54% hit · 189/350

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?	No	$469	85.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Yes	$4.3k	82.4¢	Won
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?	No	$16	71.0¢	Won
Ye divorce before April?	No	$141	70.5¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?	Yes	$382	54.6¢	Lost
Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1?	Yes	$2	6.9¢	Lost
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days?	No	$166	83.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$348	78.8¢	Lost
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?	No	$34	73.0¢	Lost
Will Labour win 450 or more seats in the next UK Election?	No	$6	58.1¢	Won
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30?	Yes	$30	3.1¢	Lost
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	$9	35.6¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on March 31?	No	$1.8k	78.6¢	Won
Will Jake Paul knockout Mike Tyson?	No	$597	55.6¢	Won
Will Jake Paul knockout Mike Tyson?	Yes	$318	28.7¢	Lost
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?	Yes	$26	4.7¢	Won
Taylor vs. Serrano	Taylor	$14	36.0¢	Won
Will DOGE bring back Marko Elez in February?	Yes	$16	45.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2025?	Yes	$22	21.8¢	Lost
Claude 4 released in May?	No	$30	29.7¢	Lost
Grokipedia released by October 31?	No	$33	1.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" during Elon interview?	No	$29	72.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" during Elon interview?	Yes	$10	16.7¢	Lost
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31?	Yes	$721	16.1¢	Won
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?	No	$557	87.0¢	Won
Will Trump say 'China' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union?	No	$24	6.0¢	Lost
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?	Yes	$252	84.0¢	Lost
Will Joey Chestnut eat 65 or more Hot Dogs?	Yes	$19	37.5¢	Won
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025?	No	$268	78.8¢	Won
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025?	Yes	$88	22.0¢	Lost
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?	Yes	$5	42.6¢	Lost
Kamala Harris divorce in 2025?	No	$87	87.0¢	Won
Will Kamala say "not going back" at debate?	Yes	$1	71.0¢	Won
Kamala and Trump shake hands at inauguration?	No	$246	6.6¢	Lost
Kamala and Trump shake hands at inauguration?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?	No	$600	25.4¢	Won
Simone Biles wins 4 gold medals?	Yes	$3	31.0¢	Lost
Will Labour win 400-424 seats in the next UK Election?	No	$9	87.0¢	Lost
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 before April?	Yes	$40	20.0¢	Lost
Will Trump and Harris debate before election?	No	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?	Yes	$98	32.7¢	Won
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?	Yes	$6	3.6¢	Lost
World Chess Championship 2024 Winner	Ding	$186	24.8¢	Lost
World Chess Championship 2024 Winner	Gukesh	$1.2k	69.6¢	Won
Will Apple release a new product line in 2025?	No	$16	51.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?	Yes	$29	4.5¢	Lost
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?	Yes	$100	3.8¢	Lost
Pavel Durov released in August?	No	$12	38.3¢	Lost
Pavel Durov released in August?	Yes	$46	58.2¢	Won
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?	No	$414	69.0¢	Won

Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Won
No$469 @ 85.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Won
Yes$4.3k @ 82.4¢
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by August 31?Won
No$16 @ 71.0¢
Ye divorce before April?Won
No$141 @ 70.5¢
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on March 31?Lost
Yes$382 @ 54.6¢
Will Trump issue 15-19 executive orders on Day 1?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.9¢
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days?Won
No$166 @ 83.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$348 @ 78.8¢
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?Lost
No$34 @ 73.0¢
Will Labour win 450 or more seats in the next UK Election?Won
No$6 @ 58.1¢
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30?Lost
Yes$30 @ 3.1¢
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$9 @ 35.6¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on March 31?Won
No$1.8k @ 78.6¢
Will Jake Paul knockout Mike Tyson?Won
No$597 @ 55.6¢
Will Jake Paul knockout Mike Tyson?Lost
Yes$318 @ 28.7¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?Won
Yes$26 @ 4.7¢
Taylor vs. SerranoWon
Taylor$14 @ 36.0¢
Will DOGE bring back Marko Elez in February? Won
Yes$16 @ 45.0¢
Will SpaceX have between 180-199 launches in 2025?Lost
Yes$22 @ 21.8¢
Claude 4 released in May?Lost
No$30 @ 29.7¢
Grokipedia released by October 31?Lost
No$33 @ 1.1¢
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" during Elon interview?Won
No$29 @ 72.0¢
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" during Elon interview?Lost
Yes$10 @ 16.7¢
Will Google have the top AI model on March 31?Won
Yes$721 @ 16.1¢
Will GPT-6 be released by March 31, 2026?Won
No$557 @ 87.0¢
Will Trump say 'China' 5+ times during the 2025 State of the Union?Lost
No$24 @ 6.0¢
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?Lost
Yes$252 @ 84.0¢
Will Joey Chestnut eat 65 or more Hot Dogs?Won
Yes$19 @ 37.5¢
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025?Won
No$268 @ 78.8¢
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025?Lost
Yes$88 @ 22.0¢
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?Lost
Yes$5 @ 42.6¢
Kamala Harris divorce in 2025?Won
No$87 @ 87.0¢
Will Kamala say "not going back" at debate?Won
Yes$1 @ 71.0¢
Kamala and Trump shake hands at inauguration?Lost
No$246 @ 6.6¢
Kamala and Trump shake hands at inauguration?Won
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?Won
No$600 @ 25.4¢
Simone Biles wins 4 gold medals?Lost
Yes$3 @ 31.0¢
Will Labour win 400-424 seats in the next UK Election?Lost
No$9 @ 87.0¢
Will a Chinese AI model become #1 before April? Lost
Yes$40 @ 20.0¢
Will Trump and Harris debate before election?Lost
No$0 @ 0.3¢
Will either Kamala or Trump win every swing state?Won
Yes$98 @ 32.7¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Lost
Yes$6 @ 3.6¢
World Chess Championship 2024 WinnerLost
Ding$186 @ 24.8¢
World Chess Championship 2024 WinnerWon
Gukesh$1.2k @ 69.6¢
Will Apple release a new product line in 2025?Won
No$16 @ 51.0¢
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31?Lost
Yes$29 @ 4.5¢
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?Lost
Yes$100 @ 3.8¢
Pavel Durov released in August?Lost
No$12 @ 38.3¢
Pavel Durov released in August?Won
Yes$46 @ 58.2¢
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025?Won
No$414 @ 69.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2.0k	55.6¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.0k	42.0¢
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$291	71.0¢
Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Tech	Yes	$118	9.4¢

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$2.0k @ 55.6¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$1.0k @ 42.0¢
Will Ari Weinstein leave OpenAI by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$291 @ 71.0¢
Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Tech
Yes$118 @ 9.4¢