0x5c7b…d463

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5c7bd15c159659f5d39ad30d089f7f6d0dc5d463
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.3pp

ROI

+6%

Win rate

11% @ 6.9¢

Brier

0.048

Resolved

558

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	8% (5/61)	+4%	61
Other	0% (0/40)	-100%	40
Geopolitics	11% (2/18)	-48%	18
Tech	25% (4/16)	-12%	16
Economy	20% (3/15)	-12%	15
Crypto	20% (1/5)	+69%	5
Business	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics61 bets
Hit rate
8% (5/61)
ROI
+4%
Other40 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/40)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics18 bets
Hit rate
11% (2/18)
ROI
-48%
Tech16 bets
Hit rate
25% (4/16)
ROI
-12%
Economy15 bets
Hit rate
20% (3/15)
ROI
-12%
Crypto5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
+69%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

9% hit · 15/159

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$2	0.9¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$52	2.4¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	Yes	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	No	$20	59.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$24	87.0¢	Won
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote?	Yes	$3	2.0¢	Lost
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	No	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	No	$12	2.0¢	Lost
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	$76	63.8¢	Won
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?	No	$21	10.5¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?	Yes	$14	0.1¢	Lost
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap?	No	$12	54.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$55	55.4¢	Won
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?	Yes	$5	1.0¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$2	0.5¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?	Yes	$4	2.0¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	$20	2.7¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$12	4.0¢	Lost
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	Yes	$33	56.0¢	Won
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?	Yes	$7	3.1¢	Lost
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.6¢	Lost
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$0	0.4¢	Lost
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?	No	$2	1.1¢	Lost
Will Cho Sangho win the 2026 Sejong mayoral election?	No	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?	No	$9	8.0¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$4	0.6¢	Lost
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election?	No	$2	6.0¢	Lost
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in June 2026?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the third highest private market valuation on June 30?	Yes	$4	9.9¢	Lost
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	No	$36	33.6¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	3.4¢	Lost
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?	Yes	$10	40.0¢	Lost
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
Will Wi Seong-gon win the 2026 Jeju Province Gubernatorial Election?	No	$3	2.0¢	Lost
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	Yes	$39	0.3¢	Lost
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02?	No	$2	2.0¢	Lost

Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$52 @ 2.4¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Lost
Yes$3 @ 3.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Lost
No$20 @ 59.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$24 @ 87.0¢
Will Apple announce a foldable iPhone during the WWDC 2026 keynote?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.0¢
Jerome Powell federally charged by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will Anthropic have the #2 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
No$0 @ 1.0¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Lost
No$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Lost
No$12 @ 2.0¢
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Won
Yes$76 @ 63.8¢
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?Won
No$21 @ 10.5¢
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?Lost
Yes$14 @ 0.1¢
Will Vaibhav Sooryavanshi win the 2026 IPL Orange Cap?Won
No$12 @ 54.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$55 @ 55.4¢
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.0¢
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Lost
Yes$20 @ 2.7¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$12 @ 4.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Won
Yes$33 @ 56.0¢
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30?Lost
Yes$7 @ 3.1¢
Will Tucker Carlson announce Presidential run by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Hantavirus lab leak confirmed by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.6¢
Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢
Will Park Chan-dae win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?Lost
No$2 @ 1.1¢
Will Cho Sangho win the 2026 Sejong mayoral election?Lost
No$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$9 @ 8.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.6¢
Will Lara Bird win the 2026 Arbroath and Broughty Ferry by-election?Lost
No$2 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump publicly insult Mojtaba Khamenei by Friday?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will Elon Musk post 1400+ tweets in June 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Rodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Anthropic have the third highest private market valuation on June 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 9.9¢
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
No$36 @ 33.6¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 3.4¢
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?Lost
Yes$10 @ 40.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Cut in the next three decisions (Mar–Apr–Jun)?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
Will Wi Seong-gon win the 2026 Jeju Province Gubernatorial Election?Lost
No$3 @ 2.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Lost
Yes$39 @ 0.3¢
Jimmy Lai released by June 30?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.1¢
Will Blake Moore be the Republican nominee for UT-02?Lost
No$2 @ 2.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Vilgefortz die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?	Culture	No	$5	7.0¢
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$4	0.3¢
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$3	4.0¢
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$2	0.3¢
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$2	3.0¢
Nick Fuentes and Sophie Rain confirmed relationship by September 30?	—	Yes	$2	2.0¢
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Sports	Yes	$1	0.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$1	66.5¢
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$1	4.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	No	$1	16.0¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1	12.5¢
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$0	3.0¢
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$0	3.0¢

Will Vilgefortz die during "The Witcher: Season 5"?Culture
No$5 @ 7.0¢
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$4 @ 0.3¢
Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$3 @ 4.0¢
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$2 @ 0.3¢
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$2 @ 3.0¢
Nick Fuentes and Sophie Rain confirmed relationship by September 30?—
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Sports
Yes$1 @ 0.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
No$1 @ 66.5¢
Will Alaska Airlines announce bankruptcy by December 31?Tech
Yes$1 @ 4.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
No$1 @ 16.0¢
AI bubble burst in 2026?Tech
Yes$1 @ 12.5¢
Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?Crypto
Yes$0 @ 3.0¢
Will Base launch a token by September 30, 2026?Crypto
Yes$0 @ 3.0¢