0x5c5b…1a6d

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Other31 bets

  Hit rate

  81% (25/31)

  ROI

  +20%

• Politics29 bets

  Hit rate

  86% (25/29)

  ROI

  +27%

• Geopolitics5 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (5/5)

  ROI

  +24%

• Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 14, 2026?Won
  No$41 @ 83.0¢
• Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$108 @ 67.5¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$34 @ 69.0¢
• Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
  No$33 @ 66.0¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
  No$114 @ 72.2¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
  No$156 @ 29.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Won
  No$8 @ 72.1¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
  No$279 @ 64.5¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$212 @ 68.6¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Won
  No$131 @ 68.8¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?Won
  No$30 @ 41.5¢
• Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz in April?Won
  No$289 @ 72.1¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
  Yes$168 @ 19.4¢
• Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026?Won
  No$86 @ 76.5¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
  No$33 @ 84.0¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 15, 2026?Won
  No$70 @ 86.6¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
  Yes$25 @ 57.7¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$176 @ 50.9¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
  No$101 @ 80.6¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
  No$47 @ 40.3¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Lost
  Yes$11 @ 50.0¢
• Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Won
  No$407 @ 77.5¢
• US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
  No$1.4k @ 43.1¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?Won
  No$211 @ 81.3¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?Won
  No$222 @ 64.1¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 23, 2026?Won
  No$157 @ 65.4¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 26, 2026?Won
  No$49 @ 54.0¢
• Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Won
  Yes$24 @ 38.2¢
• Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$174 @ 82.4¢
• Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$278 @ 55.7¢
• Will Trump declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$226 @ 73.3¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?Won
  No$211 @ 76.5¢
• US announces military support of Iran opposition by April 30?Won
  No$28 @ 86.0¢
• Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$153 @ 80.7¢
• Will Russia capture Bilytske by April 30, 2026?Won
  No$68 @ 68.0¢
• Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026?Won
  No$371 @ 56.5¢
• Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Won
  No$378 @ 84.9¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?Won
  No$80 @ 35.6¢
• Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30?Won
  No$307 @ 85.2¢
• US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
  Yes$35 @ 46.2¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Lost
  No$590 @ 69.2¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
  Yes$124 @ 22.9¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?Lost
  No$399 @ 73.8¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Won
  No$124 @ 82.3¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?Lost
  Yes$431 @ 32.0¢
• US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
  No$33 @ 79.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?Won
  No$192 @ 26.7¢
• Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?Lost
  No$194 @ 41.3¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$101 @ 33.0¢
• Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31?Won
  No$16 @ 88.7¢

Current positions

• Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$688 @ 54.6¢
• Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
  No$572 @ 74.8¢
• US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?—
  No$494 @ 38.9¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$486 @ 80.3¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$346 @ 74.6¢
• Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? Politics
  No$335 @ 80.5¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?—
  No$277 @ 42.1¢
• Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
  No$219 @ 66.5¢
• Trump meets with Putin by December 31?—
  No$214 @ 65.1¢
• Will Trump and Putin not meet?Politics
  Yes$158 @ 62.6¢
• Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?—
  No$148 @ 45.0¢
• Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Politics
  Yes$119 @ 87.6¢
• Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$105 @ 95.5¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$101 @ 70.0¢
• Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?Politics
  No$75 @ 86.8¢
• Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$63 @ 79.0¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?—
  No$39 @ 64.9¢
• Will Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?Politics
  No$15 @ 47.6¢
• Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Politics
  No$11 @ 75.0¢
• Will Russia capture Kupiansk by December 31, 2026?—
  No$8 @ 67.0¢
• Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$7 @ 49.0¢