0x5c22…e4db

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5c22ffa6212e28591ad30e82894c5ef46d74e4db
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.9pp

ROI

+54%

Win rate

30% @ 22.7¢

Brier

0.175

Resolved

402

Avg size

$48

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	35% (8/23)	+67%	23
Sports	40% (4/10)	+62%	10
Politics	0% (0/9)	-100%	9
Geopolitics	80% (4/5)	+16%	5

Other23 bets
Hit rate
35% (8/23)
ROI
+67%
Sports10 bets
Hit rate
40% (4/10)
ROI
+62%
Politics9 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/9)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+16%

Track record

34% hit · 16/47

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$6	66.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	$150	10.8¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$10	80.3¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$50	1.7¢	Lost
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	9.2¢	Lost
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$10	5.1¢	Lost
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?	Yes	$550	4.4¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.3k	3.4¢	Lost
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$10	3.0¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	No	$988	78.4¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?	No	$938	70.1¢	Won
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$10	10.1¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$198	19.4¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?	No	$1	83.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by August 31?	Yes	$1	1.4¢	Lost
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$16	1.6¢	Lost
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?	No	$5.8k	45.4¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?	Yes	$326	7.8¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$88	25.0¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$111	1.5¢	Lost
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$21	3.5¢	Lost
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$3.2k	56.8¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$179	9.2¢	Lost
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	$47	47.0¢	Won
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 23, 2026?	No	$6	6.0¢	Won
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$154	7.7¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$812	2.9¢	Lost
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?	Yes	$1	3.1¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?	No	$76	83.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?	Yes	$300	10.0¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	No	$1	3.2¢	Lost
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$10	7.3¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$868	5.2¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?	Yes	$8	32.3¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?	Yes	$3	31.7¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?	No	$685	89.0¢	Won
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$114	1.2¢	Lost
Spread: England (-2.5)	England	$3	43.0¢	Lost
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?	Yes	$353	3.5¢	Lost
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$12	7.4¢	Lost
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	Yes	$10	15.0¢	Lost
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Botic van de Zandschulp	Botic van de Zandschulp	$10	12.0¢	Lost
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 25, 2026?	No	$7	7.0¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$835	9.2¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$105	7.0¢	Won
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?	No	$1	64.0¢	Won
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?	Yes	$50	39.9¢	Won

NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$6 @ 66.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
Yes$150 @ 10.8¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$10 @ 80.3¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$50 @ 1.7¢
Mykhailo Fedorov reinstated as Ukrainian Defense Minister by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 9.2¢
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
Yes$10 @ 5.1¢
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30?Lost
Yes$550 @ 4.4¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.3k @ 3.4¢
Will Taylor Fritz win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
Yes$10 @ 3.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Won
No$988 @ 78.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?Won
No$938 @ 70.1¢
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's US Open?Won
Yes$10 @ 10.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$198 @ 19.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by August 31?Won
No$1 @ 83.0¢
Iran leadership change by August 31?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.4¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 25, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$16 @ 1.6¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?Lost
No$5.8k @ 45.4¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by March 31?Lost
Yes$326 @ 7.8¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$88 @ 25.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran on February 23, 2026 (ET)?Lost
Yes$111 @ 1.5¢
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
Yes$21 @ 3.5¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
No$3.2k @ 56.8¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$179 @ 9.2¢
Will Jannik Sinner win the 2026 Men's US Open?Won
No$47 @ 47.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 23, 2026?Won
No$6 @ 6.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$154 @ 7.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$812 @ 2.9¢
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.1¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30?Won
No$76 @ 83.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 7th?Lost
Yes$300 @ 10.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
No$1 @ 3.2¢
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
Yes$10 @ 7.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$868 @ 5.2¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by July 31?Lost
Yes$8 @ 32.3¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?Won
Yes$3 @ 31.7¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026?Won
No$685 @ 89.0¢
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$114 @ 1.2¢
Spread: England (-2.5)Lost
England$3 @ 43.0¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31?Lost
Yes$353 @ 3.5¢
NATO x Russia military clash by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$12 @ 7.4¢
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?Lost
Yes$10 @ 15.0¢
US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Botic van de ZandschulpLost
Botic van de Zandschulp$10 @ 12.0¢
Will Russia target Kyiv on August 25, 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 7.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$835 @ 9.2¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$105 @ 7.0¢
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26?Won
No$1 @ 64.0¢
Will the US next strike Iran before March 2026 (ET)?Won
Yes$50 @ 39.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$14.7k	13.7¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$318	28.9¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?	Politics	Yes	$232	6.7¢
Russia coup attempt in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$117	6.4¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?	Politics	Yes	$111	27.6¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$99	17.0¢
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$64	6.5¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus?	Politics	Yes	$50	0.3¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?	Politics	No	$40	36.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?	Politics	Yes	$31	0.4¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?	Politics	Yes	$28	4.0¢
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$23	11.5¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$22	7.6¢
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$21	6.1¢
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?	Politics	Yes	$20	7.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$19	1.9¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$10	8.6¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland?	Politics	Yes	$7	0.6¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country?	Politics	Yes	$7	0.5¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?	Politics	Yes	$5	1.6¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?	Politics	Yes	$4	1.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	21.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	2.9¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$2	17.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?	Politics	Yes	$1	0.2¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?	Politics	No	$1	8.0¢
NATO article 5 before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1	10.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$1	59.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	48.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	36.0¢

Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$14.7k @ 13.7¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 15, 2026?Politics
Yes$318 @ 28.9¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States?Politics
Yes$232 @ 6.7¢
Russia coup attempt in 2026?Politics
Yes$117 @ 6.4¢
Will Trump and Putin not meet?Politics
Yes$111 @ 27.6¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?Politics
Yes$99 @ 17.0¢
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? Politics
Yes$64 @ 6.5¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Belarus?Politics
Yes$50 @ 0.3¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?Politics
No$40 @ 36.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?Politics
Yes$31 @ 0.4¢
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by October 31?Politics
Yes$28 @ 4.0¢
Will Trump meet with Aleksandr Lukashenko in 2026?Politics
Yes$23 @ 11.5¢
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31?Politics
Yes$22 @ 7.6¢
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027?Politics
Yes$21 @ 6.1¢
Will Ukraine sign an EU accession treaty by December 31, 2027?Politics
Yes$20 @ 7.0¢
Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$19 @ 1.9¢
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$10 @ 8.6¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Switzerland?Politics
Yes$7 @ 0.6¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another country?Politics
Yes$7 @ 0.5¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Russia?Politics
Yes$5 @ 1.6¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey?Politics
Yes$4 @ 1.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 21.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 2.9¢
NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$2 @ 17.0¢
Will Trump and Putin meet next in another EU country?Politics
Yes$1 @ 0.2¢
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Politics
No$1 @ 8.0¢
NATO article 5 before 2027?Politics
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$1 @ 59.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 48.0¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 36.0¢