0x5c08…eba9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5c08f27559956e9c4fa008c65f79017fe548eba9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+9.5pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

58% @ 48.4¢

Brier

0.223

Resolved

1423

Avg size

$60

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	59% (240/404)	+20%	404
Politics	68% (17/25)	+22%	25
Geopolitics	85% (11/13)	+10%	13
Sports	100% (1/1)	+89%	1

Other404 bets
Hit rate
59% (240/404)
ROI
+20%
Politics25 bets
Hit rate
68% (17/25)
ROI
+22%
Geopolitics13 bets
Hit rate
85% (11/13)
ROI
+10%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+89%

Track record

61% hit · 269/443

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.4k	61.8¢	Won
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?	Yes	$490	51.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Gulf of America" during his Midterm Rally in New York?	No	$384	58.6¢	Won
Will Trump say "Union" during his Midterm Rally in New York?	No	$200	34.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?	No	$62	35.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?	Yes	$132	67.0¢	Won
Will Bernie say "Netanyahu" during CNN town hall on October 15?	Yes	$44	64.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hottest" during announcement today?	Yes	$163	57.5¢	Won
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs HOTU - Map 1 Winner	Spirit	$180	72.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "China Virus" in October?	Yes	$8	8.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during the America Business Forum on November 5?	Yes	$43	69.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17?	Yes	$2	65.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?	No	$109	60.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 9+ times during the Detroit speech on Tuesday?	Yes	$305	61.0¢	Won
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22?	Yes	$50	71.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by September 30?	Yes	$108	27.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?	No	$1.3k	48.5¢	Won
Will Trump say "Cambodia" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?	Yes	$9	45.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Border" 5+ times during ballroom dinner on October 15?	No	$44	75.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crazy" or "Kamala" during Pennsylvania events on December 9?	Yes	$3	50.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Thank you" 10+ times during the private dinner on November 12?	Yes	$427	63.8¢	Lost
OpenAI browser by September 30?	No	$101	67.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?	No	$250	43.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during Malaysia events on October 26?	Yes	$261	60.8¢	Won
Will Donald or Melania Trump say "Innovation" during executive order signing events on November 13?	No	$90	54.9¢	Lost
Will Donald or Melania Trump say "Linda" or "McMahon" during executive order signing events on November 13?	Yes	$33	30.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by January 31, 2026?	No	$239	55.7¢	Won
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Heroic (BO3)	Heroic	$202	48.0¢	Won
Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?	Yes	$178	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Russia" 7+ times during events with President of Finland on Oct 9?	No	$62	37.5¢	Lost
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3)	FaZe	$203	29.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Healthcare" during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7?	No	$136	38.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events on November 10?	No	$34	53.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$711	17.0¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$383	69.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Atlantic" this week? (January 11)	No	$16	78.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?	No	$666	35.0¢	Won
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by January 31?	No	$194	44.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?	No	$211	26.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Xi events on October 29?	No	$40	37.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "Farmer" during Xi events on October 29?	No	$162	46.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" 5+ times during the Detroit speech on Tuesday?	Yes	$163	83.1¢	Won
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?	Yes	$1	72.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Garden" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	No	$388	70.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Wealthy" during Egypt summit?	No	$96	48.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?	No	$166	29.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during ballroom dinner on October 15?	No	$17	60.0¢	Lost
Will Russia capture Drobysheve by October 31?	Yes	$109	18.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?	Yes	$579	48.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?	No	$67	57.7¢	Won

Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 61.8¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?Won
Yes$490 @ 51.0¢
Will Trump say "Gulf of America" during his Midterm Rally in New York?Won
No$384 @ 58.6¢
Will Trump say "Union" during his Midterm Rally in New York?Won
No$200 @ 34.5¢
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Lost
No$62 @ 35.7¢
Will Trump say "Thank you" 8+ times during Australia PM events on October 20?Won
Yes$132 @ 67.0¢
Will Bernie say "Netanyahu" during CNN town hall on October 15?Won
Yes$44 @ 64.0¢
Will Trump say "Hottest" during announcement today?Won
Yes$163 @ 57.5¢
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs HOTU - Map 1 WinnerWon
Spirit$180 @ 72.0¢
Will Trump say "China Virus" in October?Lost
Yes$8 @ 8.0¢
Will Trump say "Tariff" 7+ times during the America Business Forum on November 5?Won
Yes$43 @ 69.0¢
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17?Lost
Yes$2 @ 65.0¢
Will Trump say Palestine during Netanyahu events on September 29?Won
No$109 @ 60.8¢
Will Trump say "Biden" or "Obama" 9+ times during the Detroit speech on Tuesday?Won
Yes$305 @ 61.0¢
Will Atalanta BC win on 2025-10-22?Lost
Yes$50 @ 71.0¢
Will Russia capture Novopavlivka by September 30?Won
Yes$108 @ 27.0¢
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?Won
No$1.3k @ 48.5¢
Will Trump say "Cambodia" during Rwanda and Congo events on December 4?Lost
Yes$9 @ 45.0¢
Will Trump say "Border" 5+ times during ballroom dinner on October 15?Won
No$44 @ 75.0¢
Will Trump say "Crazy" or "Kamala" during Pennsylvania events on December 9?Won
Yes$3 @ 50.0¢
Will Trump say "Thank you" 10+ times during the private dinner on November 12?Lost
Yes$427 @ 63.8¢
OpenAI browser by September 30?Won
No$101 @ 67.0¢
Will Russia capture Shevchenko by October 31?Lost
No$250 @ 43.2¢
Will Trump say "Please" 8+ times during Malaysia events on October 26?Won
Yes$261 @ 60.8¢
Will Donald or Melania Trump say "Innovation" during executive order signing events on November 13?Lost
No$90 @ 54.9¢
Will Donald or Melania Trump say "Linda" or "McMahon" during executive order signing events on November 13?Lost
Yes$33 @ 30.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by January 31, 2026?Won
No$239 @ 55.7¢
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs Heroic (BO3)Won
Heroic$202 @ 48.0¢
Israel strikes Gaza by October 31?Won
Yes$178 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump say "Ukraine" or "Russia" 7+ times during events with President of Finland on Oct 9?Lost
No$62 @ 37.5¢
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FaZe (BO3)Lost
FaZe$203 @ 29.0¢
Will Trump say "Healthcare" during events with PM of Canada on Oct 7?Won
No$136 @ 38.8¢
Will Donald Trump say "Biden" 4+ times during Syria President events on November 10?Won
No$34 @ 53.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$711 @ 17.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$383 @ 69.0¢
Will Trump say "Atlantic" this week? (January 11)Won
No$16 @ 78.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?Won
No$666 @ 35.0¢
Will Russia enter Zaliznychne by January 31?Won
No$194 @ 44.9¢
Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?Won
No$211 @ 26.9¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Xi events on October 29?Won
No$40 @ 37.7¢
Will Trump say "Farmer" during Xi events on October 29?Won
No$162 @ 46.1¢
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" or "Gasoline" 5+ times during the Detroit speech on Tuesday?Won
Yes$163 @ 83.1¢
Will Venezuela give the US oil by January 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 72.0¢
Will Trump say "Garden" during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Won
No$388 @ 70.0¢
Will Trump say "Wealthy" during Egypt summit?Lost
No$96 @ 48.0¢
Will Trump say "NATO" 3+ times during events with the President of Ukraine on October 17?Lost
No$166 @ 29.5¢
Will Trump say "Nobel" or "Peace Prize" during ballroom dinner on October 15?Lost
No$17 @ 60.0¢
Will Russia capture Drobysheve by October 31?Lost
Yes$109 @ 18.4¢
Will Trump say "China" 5+ times during his remarks at Xi Jinping's State Arrival?Lost
Yes$579 @ 48.2¢
Will Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" during Address to the Nation?Won
No$67 @ 57.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$2.9k	92.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.2k	48.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$345	58.0¢
Will Russia enter Bilozerske by November 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$230	23.7¢
Will Russia enter Bilozerske by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$207	36.2¢

Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$2.9k @ 92.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$1.2k @ 48.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Geopolitics
Yes$345 @ 58.0¢
Will Russia enter Bilozerske by November 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$230 @ 23.7¢
Will Russia enter Bilozerske by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$207 @ 36.2¢