0x5be3…54df

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5be38eb43958fa8ab6e9dd09cef2565e1f1a54df
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+17.6pp

ROI

+27%

Win rate

87% @ 69.2¢

Brier

0.072

Resolved

Avg size

$35

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	86% (12/14)	+21%	14
Other	83% (10/12)	+24%	12
Tech	100% (9/9)	+31%	9
Sports	67% (2/3)	+11%	3
Culture	100% (2/2)	+12%	2
Economy	100% (1/1)	+39%	1

Politics14 bets
Hit rate
86% (12/14)
ROI
+21%
Other12 bets
Hit rate
83% (10/12)
ROI
+24%
Tech9 bets
Hit rate
100% (9/9)
ROI
+31%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+11%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+12%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+39%

Track record

88% hit · 36/41

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	No	$39	25.4¢	Lost
Will TEAM VISION Qualify to The International 2026	No	$6	84.0¢	Lost
Will Israel participate in Eurovision 2027?	Yes	$175	88.9¢	Won
Will Belgium participate in Eurovision 2027?	Yes	$130	90.2¢	Won
Will Meituan have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?	No	$45	64.0¢	Won
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	No	$12	86.0¢	Won
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30?	No	$30	75.0¢	Won
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?	No	$35	77.0¢	Won
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?	No	$58	74.0¢	Won
Will FULL SENSE win Valorant Masters London 2026?	No	$12	74.0¢	Won
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?	No	$12	88.0¢	Won
Will Planet Fitness be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?	No	$41	80.1¢	Won
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?	No	$30	75.0¢	Won
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19?	No	$20	72.0¢	Won
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?	Yes	$35	69.0¢	Won
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	No	$45	89.0¢	Won
Will Microsoft have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?	No	$36	66.0¢	Won
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	$91	81.0¢	Won
Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?	No	$36	76.0¢	Won
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?	No	$30	74.0¢	Won
Will Planet Fitness be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?	No	$28	70.0¢	Won
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Yes	$7	9.0¢	Lost
Will Christian Pulisic score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$11	82.0¢	Won
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?	No	$43	86.1¢	Won
Will Haiti be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	Yes	$1	11.0¢	Lost
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	Yes	$36	40.2¢	Lost
Will Moonshot have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?	No	$47	66.0¢	Won
Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?	No	$10	77.0¢	Won
Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?	No	$33	81.0¢	Won
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in June?	No	$26	72.0¢	Won
Will Global Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026?	No	$12	69.0¢	Won
Will Wipr 2 be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?	No	$31	72.0¢	Won
Will Helena Proos be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Uppsala?	Yes	$131	67.4¢	Won
Will Scarlett Gillespie win the 2026 Hamilton, Ontario mayoral election?	No	$60	92.9¢	Won
Will Paul Fromm win the 2026 Hamilton, Ontario mayoral election?	No	$50	96.0¢	Won
Will Jenny Lundström be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Uppsala?	No	$19	96.0¢	Won
Will Monica Johansson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Sörmland?	No	$95	95.8¢	Won
Will PCQ finish in third place in the Quebec general election?	Yes	$8	38.0¢	Won
Will PLQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?	Yes	$76	76.2¢	Won
Will Peter Olofsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västerbotten?	Yes	$73	72.1¢	Won
Will Henrietta Modig Serrate be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kronoberg?	Yes	$54	66.8¢	Won

Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?Lost
No$39 @ 25.4¢
Will TEAM VISION Qualify to The International 2026Lost
No$6 @ 84.0¢
Will Israel participate in Eurovision 2027?Won
Yes$175 @ 88.9¢
Will Belgium participate in Eurovision 2027?Won
Yes$130 @ 90.2¢
Will Meituan have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?Won
No$45 @ 64.0¢
Will Uzbekistan be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Won
No$12 @ 86.0¢
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30?Won
No$30 @ 75.0¢
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?Won
No$35 @ 77.0¢
Will TonalEnergy Tuner & Metronome be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?Won
No$58 @ 74.0¢
Will FULL SENSE win Valorant Masters London 2026?Won
No$12 @ 74.0¢
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Final of the World Cup?Won
No$12 @ 88.0¢
Will Planet Fitness be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?Won
No$41 @ 80.1¢
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?Won
No$30 @ 75.0¢
Will Claude by Anthropic be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 19?Won
No$20 @ 72.0¢
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in Antioquia in the second round of the 2026 Colombia presidential election?Won
Yes$35 @ 69.0¢
Will Khamenei post 40-44 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Won
No$45 @ 89.0¢
Will Microsoft have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?Won
No$36 @ 66.0¢
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Won
Yes$91 @ 81.0¢
Will SkyView be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?Won
No$36 @ 76.0¢
Will Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?Won
No$30 @ 74.0¢
Will Planet Fitness be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?Won
No$28 @ 70.0¢
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$7 @ 9.0¢
Will Christian Pulisic score 6+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$11 @ 82.0¢
Will Threads be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?Won
No$43 @ 86.1¢
Will Haiti be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?Lost
Yes$1 @ 11.0¢
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?Lost
Yes$36 @ 40.2¢
Will Moonshot have the best AI Agent at the end of July 2026?Won
No$47 @ 66.0¢
Will New Zealand be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?Won
No$10 @ 77.0¢
Will Love Island USA be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?Won
No$33 @ 81.0¢
Will the US add between 0 and 50k jobs in June?Won
No$26 @ 72.0¢
Will Global Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026?Won
No$12 @ 69.0¢
Will Wipr 2 be #1 Paid App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?Won
No$31 @ 72.0¢
Will Helena Proos be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Uppsala?Won
Yes$131 @ 67.4¢
Will Scarlett Gillespie win the 2026 Hamilton, Ontario mayoral election?Won
No$60 @ 92.9¢
Will Paul Fromm win the 2026 Hamilton, Ontario mayoral election?Won
No$50 @ 96.0¢
Will Jenny Lundström be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Uppsala?Won
No$19 @ 96.0¢
Will Monica Johansson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Sörmland?Won
No$95 @ 95.8¢
Will PCQ finish in third place in the Quebec general election?Won
Yes$8 @ 38.0¢
Will PLQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?Won
Yes$76 @ 76.2¢
Will Peter Olofsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västerbotten?Won
Yes$73 @ 72.1¢
Will Henrietta Modig Serrate be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kronoberg?Won
Yes$54 @ 66.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will AfD be in the next Berlin state government?	Politics	No	$182	95.6¢
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Tamaulipas Congress election?	Politics	Yes	$134	76.8¢
Will the Labour Party win 55 or more seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Politics	No	$109	95.7¢
Will Jasenko Omanovic be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västernorrland?	Politics	No	$74	89.7¢
Will Peter Olofsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västerbotten?	Politics	Yes	$72	72.1¢
Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by November 30?	Science	No	$69	90.3¢
Will Maria Lundqvist-Brömster be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västerbotten?	Politics	No	$60	92.7¢
Will Gunnar Nordmark be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kronoberg?	Politics	No	$58	94.3¢
Will Sara Gunnarsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Värmland?	Politics	No	$57	93.0¢
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Oaxaca Congress election?	Politics	Yes	$56	75.5¢
Will Henrietta Modig Serrate be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kronoberg?	Politics	Yes	$53	66.7¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-05 House election?	Politics	No	$53	94.2¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-02 House election?	Politics	No	$51	94.5¢
Will the Labour Party win 50-54 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?	Politics	No	$50	95.8¢
Will "Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$44	27.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-03 House election?	Politics	No	$43	94.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-07 House election?	Politics	No	$41	92.0¢
Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?	—	No	$39	25.4¢
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?	Politics	Yes	$36	40.2¢
Will Elisabeth Björk be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Värmland?	Politics	No	$19	95.0¢
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$7	9.0¢
Will TEAM VISION Qualify to The International 2026	Sports	No	$6	84.0¢

Will AfD be in the next Berlin state government?Politics
No$182 @ 95.6¢
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Tamaulipas Congress election?Politics
Yes$134 @ 76.8¢
Will the Labour Party win 55 or more seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics
No$109 @ 95.7¢
Will Jasenko Omanovic be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västernorrland?Politics
No$74 @ 89.7¢
Will Peter Olofsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västerbotten?Politics
Yes$72 @ 72.1¢
Will a 8.0+ earthquake occur worldwide by November 30?Science
No$69 @ 90.3¢
Will Maria Lundqvist-Brömster be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Västerbotten?Politics
No$60 @ 92.7¢
Will Gunnar Nordmark be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kronoberg?Politics
No$58 @ 94.3¢
Will Sara Gunnarsson be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Värmland?Politics
No$57 @ 93.0¢
Will Morena win the most seats in the 2027 Oaxaca Congress election?Politics
Yes$56 @ 75.5¢
Will Henrietta Modig Serrate be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Kronoberg?Politics
Yes$53 @ 66.7¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-05 House election?Politics
No$53 @ 94.2¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-02 House election?Politics
No$51 @ 94.5¢
Will the Labour Party win 50-54 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?Politics
No$50 @ 95.8¢
Will "Shaun the Sheep: The Beast of Mossy Bottom" be nominated for Best Animated Feature Film at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$44 @ 27.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-03 House election?Politics
No$43 @ 94.0¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 IL-07 House election?Politics
No$41 @ 92.0¢
Will AfD win 38-41 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?—
No$39 @ 25.4¢
Icelandic European Union membership negotiations referendum passes?Politics
Yes$36 @ 40.2¢
Will Elisabeth Björk be the next Regional Board Chair of Region Värmland?Politics
No$19 @ 95.0¢
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Politics
Yes$7 @ 9.0¢
Will TEAM VISION Qualify to The International 2026Sports
No$6 @ 84.0¢