0x5b8f…2c14

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5b8f191a4a3e66fe9b7348891f21021399762c14
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.0pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

19% @ 16.8¢

Brier

0.107

Resolved

1847

Avg size

$61

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	25% (76/303)	+22%	303
Politics	22% (13/59)	-33%	59
Geopolitics	16% (3/19)	-49%	19
Sports	13% (2/16)	+36%	16
Tech	0% (0/4)	-100%	4
Crypto	33% (1/3)	+95%	3
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other303 bets
Hit rate
25% (76/303)
ROI
+22%
Politics59 bets
Hit rate
22% (13/59)
ROI
-33%
Geopolitics19 bets
Hit rate
16% (3/19)
ROI
-49%
Sports16 bets
Hit rate
13% (2/16)
ROI
+36%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/4)
ROI
-100%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
+95%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

23% hit · 95/405

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Ghazl El Mahalla SC win on 2026-08-27?	Yes	$22	25.0¢	Lost
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings	Punjab Kings	$58	38.0¢	Lost
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?	No	$121	3.5¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$346	27.3¢	Lost
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	$10	7.0¢	Lost
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$90	35.6¢	Lost
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 8 and 50 hours without failure?	Yes	$8	0.8¢	Lost
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17?	Yes	$42	14.0¢	Lost
Will the Patek Index hit $107,000 (HIGH) by April 30?	No	$4	0.6¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$5.6k	61.7¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$200	15.9¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?	No	$129	4.5¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 29?	Yes	$87	43.5¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$1.0k	1.0¢	Lost
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 25 minutes long?	No	$3	1.1¢	Lost
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Spain?	Yes	$24	39.5¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$100	5.0¢	Lost
Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?	Yes	$9	2.2¢	Lost
Thunder vs. Lakers	Lakers	$40	6.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	$100	6.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 27?	Yes	$11	5.6¢	Lost
Madrid Open: Elise Mertens vs Karolina Pliskova	Elise Mertens	$53	42.0¢	Lost
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?	No	$52	16.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)	No	$435	11.4¢	Lost
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 13, 2026?	Yes	$21	2.7¢	Lost
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?	No	$336	5.6¢	Lost
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?	No	$6	0.3¢	Lost
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	$407	26.4¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	$928	32.4¢	Lost
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?	Yes	$139	44.6¢	Lost
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?	Yes	$24	0.8¢	Lost
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?	No	$1.6k	32.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.8k	23.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?	Yes	$218	2.0¢	Lost
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$60	11.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	Yes	$276	9.2¢	Lost
Will any of Trump’s sons attend Trump’s Xi summit?	No	$39	2.7¢	Lost
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand	Bangladesh	$15	3.0¢	Lost
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New Zealand	New Zealand	$81	58.0¢	Won
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11?	Yes	$50	9.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?	Yes	$50	8.0¢	Lost
Pakistan Super League: Hyderabad Kingsmen vs Islamabad United	Hyderabad Kingsmen	$30	44.0¢	Lost
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?	Yes	$30	14.2¢	Lost
Will Real Madrid CF Femenino win on 2026-03-25?	Yes	$20	2.1¢	Lost
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?	No	$100	9.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?	Yes	$420	44.7¢	Won
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?	Yes	$98	12.0¢	Lost
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?	Yes	$99	23.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$126	6.1¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?	Yes	$36	27.0¢	Won

Will Ghazl El Mahalla SC win on 2026-08-27?Lost
Yes$22 @ 25.0¢
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab KingsLost
Punjab Kings$58 @ 38.0¢
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?Lost
No$121 @ 3.5¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$346 @ 27.3¢
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?Lost
Yes$10 @ 7.0¢
Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$90 @ 35.6¢
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 8 and 50 hours without failure?Lost
Yes$8 @ 0.8¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-03-17?Lost
Yes$42 @ 14.0¢
Will the Patek Index hit $107,000 (HIGH) by April 30?Lost
No$4 @ 0.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$5.6k @ 61.7¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$200 @ 15.9¢
U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30?Lost
No$129 @ 4.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 29?Lost
Yes$87 @ 43.5¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$1.0k @ 1.0¢
Will the GTA 6 extended look be at least 25 minutes long?Lost
No$3 @ 1.1¢
Exact Score: France 0 - 2 Spain?Won
Yes$24 @ 39.5¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 5.0¢
Will the US strike 6 countries in 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 2.2¢
Thunder vs. LakersLost
Lakers$40 @ 6.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
Yes$100 @ 6.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on March 27?Lost
Yes$11 @ 5.6¢
Madrid Open: Elise Mertens vs Karolina PliskovaLost
Elise Mertens$53 @ 42.0¢
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM on May 21?Won
No$52 @ 16.0¢
Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)Lost
No$435 @ 11.4¢
Will the first eaglet hatch on April 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$21 @ 2.7¢
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19?Lost
No$336 @ 5.6¢
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?Lost
No$6 @ 0.3¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?Lost
Yes$407 @ 26.4¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Lost
Yes$928 @ 32.4¢
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?Lost
Yes$139 @ 44.6¢
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$24 @ 0.8¢
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31?Lost
No$1.6k @ 32.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.8k @ 23.9¢
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026?Lost
Yes$218 @ 2.0¢
Will UK strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$60 @ 11.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Lost
Yes$276 @ 9.2¢
Will any of Trump’s sons attend Trump’s Xi summit?Lost
No$39 @ 2.7¢
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New ZealandLost
Bangladesh$15 @ 3.0¢
T20 Series Bangladesh vs. New Zealand: Bangladesh vs New ZealandWon
New Zealand$81 @ 58.0¢
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-03-11?Lost
Yes$50 @ 9.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 15th?Lost
Yes$50 @ 8.0¢
Pakistan Super League: Hyderabad Kingsmen vs Islamabad UnitedLost
Hyderabad Kingsmen$30 @ 44.0¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?Lost
Yes$30 @ 14.2¢
Will Real Madrid CF Femenino win on 2026-03-25?Lost
Yes$20 @ 2.1¢
US ceasefire against Iran continues through August 31?Won
No$100 @ 9.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?Won
Yes$420 @ 44.7¢
Will Trump and Xi hug at their summit?Lost
Yes$98 @ 12.0¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-07-01?Lost
Yes$99 @ 23.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$126 @ 6.1¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?Won
Yes$36 @ 27.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$1.7k	10.0¢
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)	Sports	Conor McGregor	$522	29.5¢
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?	Politics	No	$240	15.4¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	Politics	Yes	$121	11.6¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?	Sports	Yes	$97	13.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$93	6.3¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?	—	Yes	$58	7.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$50	3.7¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Politics	No	$48	0.4¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	Geopolitics	No	$34	34.0¢
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Sports	No	$32	3.8¢
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5	—	Under	$30	7.0¢
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Argentina?	—	Yes	$30	7.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	Yes	$28	0.7¢
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?	—	Yes	$27	12.7¢
Will Ghazl El Mahalla SC win on 2026-08-27?	—	Yes	$22	25.0¢
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 DR Congo?	—	Yes	$15	1.0¢
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 DR Congo?	—	Yes	$15	5.1¢
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?	—	Yes	$10	7.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?	—	Yes	$4	0.4¢
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?	Sports	No	$4	0.7¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$0	0.3¢

Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$1.7k @ 10.0¢
UFC 329: Max Holloway vs. Conor McGregor (Welterweight, Main Card)Sports
Conor McGregor$522 @ 29.5¢
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?Politics
No$240 @ 15.4¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Politics
Yes$121 @ 11.6¢
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16?Sports
Yes$97 @ 13.0¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$93 @ 6.3¢
US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 21?—
Yes$58 @ 7.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$50 @ 3.7¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Politics
No$48 @ 0.4¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Geopolitics
No$34 @ 34.0¢
Will Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?Sports
No$32 @ 3.8¢
Spain vs. Belgium: O/U 0.5—
Under$30 @ 7.0¢
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Argentina?—
Yes$30 @ 7.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
Yes$28 @ 0.7¢
Will Croatia win on 2026-07-02?—
Yes$27 @ 12.7¢
Will Ghazl El Mahalla SC win on 2026-08-27?—
Yes$22 @ 25.0¢
Exact Score: England 0 - 3 DR Congo?—
Yes$15 @ 1.0¢
Exact Score: England 0 - 2 DR Congo?—
Yes$15 @ 5.1¢
Will DR Congo win on 2026-07-01?—
Yes$10 @ 7.0¢
Iran military action against a Gulf State on July 15?—
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Will Justin Bieber perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?Sports
No$4 @ 0.7¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$0 @ 0.3¢