0x5af5…5fcc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5af5acbe8dbb78fc5b34166d56b7cbee5db15fcc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+13.4pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

86% @ 72.2¢

Brier

0.090

Resolved

321

Avg size

$13

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	57% (29/51)	+4%	51
Politics	74% (23/31)	+2%	31
Geopolitics	86% (6/7)	+27%	7
Sports	33% (1/3)	-87%	3
Economy	100% (1/1)	+18%	1

Other51 bets
Hit rate
57% (29/51)
ROI
+4%
Politics31 bets
Hit rate
74% (23/31)
ROI
+2%
Geopolitics7 bets
Hit rate
86% (6/7)
ROI
+27%
Sports3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-87%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+18%

Track record

65% hit · 60/93

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Spread: Ohio State (-14.5)	Ohio State	$1	51.0¢	Won
Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay Rays	Tampa Bay Rays	$1	25.0¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	No	$5	83.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$63	78.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$5	31.0¢	Lost
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?	Yes	$1	60.0¢	Won
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 27.5	Yes	$3	56.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	Yes	$65	81.3¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$57	86.1¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$5	79.0¢	Won
Ruud vs. Darderi: Match O/U 21.5	Over	$2	55.0¢	Lost
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?	No	$148	84.9¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	No	$15	84.7¢	Won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals	No	$3	53.0¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?	Yes	$12	71.2¢	Lost
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?	Yes	$3	31.0¢	Lost
Rockets vs. Lakers	Rockets	$2	39.0¢	Won
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?	No	$43	63.0¢	Lost
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$20	87.0¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	No	$28	85.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$821	69.6¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Yes	$77	60.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	No	$6	75.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$25	80.1¢	Won
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?	No	$15	84.4¢	Won
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$2	54.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?	No	$566	85.8¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	$7	86.0¢	Lost
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?	Yes	$12	65.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?	Yes	$3	73.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$30	71.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$400	76.4¢	Won
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 7.5	Yes	$2	47.0¢	Lost
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	Yes	$5	17.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	$12	69.6¢	Lost
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$2	49.0¢	Won
Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics	Athletics	$2	56.0¢	Lost
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?	No	$23	82.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	52.0¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?	No	$170	85.5¢	Won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5	Under	$2	55.0¢	Won
Francavilla: Toby Samuel vs Stefanos Sakellaridis	Toby Samuel	$1	21.0¢	Lost
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$5	89.0¢	Won
Gauff vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 21.5	Over	$2	54.0¢	Won
Spread: Rockets (-3.5)	Lakers	$2	50.0¢	Won
France vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$2	50.0¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?	No	$2	4.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	$5	85.0¢	Won
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Grigor Dimitrov	Grigor Dimitrov	$2	44.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$10	88.0¢	Won

Spread: Ohio State (-14.5)Won
Ohio State$1 @ 51.0¢
Seattle Mariners vs. Tampa Bay RaysLost
Tampa Bay Rays$1 @ 25.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Won
No$5 @ 83.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$63 @ 78.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 31.0¢
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-20?Won
Yes$1 @ 60.0¢
Cade Cunningham: Points O/U 27.5Won
Yes$3 @ 56.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Won
Yes$65 @ 81.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$57 @ 86.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$5 @ 79.0¢
Ruud vs. Darderi: Match O/U 21.5Lost
Over$2 @ 55.0¢
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Won
No$148 @ 84.9¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Won
No$15 @ 84.7¢
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City RoyalsWon
No$3 @ 53.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?Lost
Yes$12 @ 71.2¢
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15?Lost
Yes$3 @ 31.0¢
Rockets vs. LakersWon
Rockets$2 @ 39.0¢
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30?Lost
No$43 @ 63.0¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$20 @ 87.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
No$28 @ 85.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$821 @ 69.6¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Lost
Yes$77 @ 60.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Won
No$6 @ 75.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$25 @ 80.1¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026?Won
No$15 @ 84.4¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$2 @ 54.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15?Won
No$566 @ 85.8¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Lost
Yes$7 @ 86.0¢
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?Won
Yes$12 @ 65.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May?Lost
Yes$3 @ 73.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$30 @ 71.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$400 @ 76.4¢
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 7.5Lost
Yes$2 @ 47.0¢
US strike on Mexico by March 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 17.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Lost
No$12 @ 69.6¢
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreWon
Yes$2 @ 49.0¢
Cleveland Guardians vs. AthleticsLost
Athletics$2 @ 56.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?Won
No$23 @ 82.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$10 @ 52.0¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?Won
No$170 @ 85.5¢
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5Won
Under$2 @ 55.0¢
Francavilla: Toby Samuel vs Stefanos SakellaridisLost
Toby Samuel$1 @ 21.0¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$5 @ 89.0¢
Gauff vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 21.5Won
Over$2 @ 54.0¢
Spread: Rockets (-3.5)Won
Lakers$2 @ 50.0¢
France vs. Morocco: Both Teams to ScoreLost
Yes$2 @ 50.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 31, 2026?Lost
No$2 @ 4.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Won
Yes$5 @ 85.0¢
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Grigor DimitrovLost
Grigor Dimitrov$2 @ 44.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$10 @ 88.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?	Politics	No	$58	93.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	No	$47	91.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?	Politics	No	$46	97.4¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?	Politics	No	$40	97.6¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$37	94.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-28 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$25	97.6¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$21	95.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?	Politics	No	$19	83.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$15	65.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$13	67.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$10	95.0¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?	Politics	No	$6	92.0¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?	Politics	Yes	$2	66.0¢

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?Politics
No$58 @ 93.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
No$47 @ 91.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?Politics
No$46 @ 97.4¢
Will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal in October?Politics
No$40 @ 97.6¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$37 @ 94.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-28 House seat?Politics
Yes$25 @ 97.6¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
No$21 @ 95.0¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
No$19 @ 83.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$15 @ 65.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$13 @ 67.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat?Politics
Yes$10 @ 95.0¢
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
No$6 @ 92.0¢
Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad?Politics
Yes$2 @ 66.0¢