← Smart money
0x5935…5e9b
ProfitableEdge
+25.8pp
ROI
+39%
Win rate
53% @ 27.6¢
Brier
0.245
Resolved
103
Avg size
$37
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 71% (5/7) | +139% | 7 |
| Politics | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
| Geopolitics | 0% (0/2) | -100% | 2 |
| Tech | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
| Sports | 0% (0/1) | -100% | 1 |
- Other7 bets
- Hit rate
- 71% (5/7)
- ROI
- +139%
- Politics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
- Geopolitics2 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/2)
- ROI
- -100%
- Tech1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
- Sports1 bets
- Hit rate
- 0% (0/1)
- ROI
- -100%
Track record
38% hit · 5/13| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? | Yes | $672 | 16.5¢ | Lost |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? | Yes | $310 | 15.5¢ | Lost |
| Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? | Yes | $239 | 31.9¢ | Won |
| Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? | Yes | $57 | 80.0¢ | Won |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by August 31? | No | $66 | 33.0¢ | Lost |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Yes | $363 | 16.7¢ | Lost |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? | Yes | $144 | 25.4¢ | Lost |
| Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Yes | $48 | 0.5¢ | Lost |
| Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $7,000 by end of June? | No | $259 | 86.4¢ | Won |
| Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | Yes | $47 | 0.5¢ | Lost |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | Yes | $1.1k | 27.3¢ | Won |
| Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? | Yes | $335 | 34.0¢ | Lost |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | Yes | $160 | 78.0¢ | Won |
- Yes$672 @ 16.5¢
- Yes$310 @ 15.5¢
- Yes$239 @ 31.9¢
- Yes$57 @ 80.0¢
- No$66 @ 33.0¢
- Yes$363 @ 16.7¢
- Yes$144 @ 25.4¢
- Yes$48 @ 0.5¢
- No$259 @ 86.4¢
- Yes$47 @ 0.5¢
- Yes$1.1k @ 27.3¢
- Yes$335 @ 34.0¢
- Yes$160 @ 78.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Politics | No | $650 | 50.0¢ |
| Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Politics | Yes | $650 | 50.0¢ |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | Crypto | No | $124 | 91.6¢ |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $12 by December 31, 2026? | Crypto | No | $101 | 93.0¢ |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $16 by December 31, 2026? | Crypto | No | $45 | 88.0¢ |
| Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2027? | Crypto | Yes | $34 | 67.0¢ |
| Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? | Tech | No | $19 | 93.0¢ |
- No$650 @ 50.0¢
- Yes$650 @ 50.0¢
- No$124 @ 91.6¢
- No$101 @ 93.0¢
- No$45 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$34 @ 67.0¢
- No$19 @ 93.0¢