0x581e…bdea

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x581ea5f2d4f413993d5965cedf02b7f5135ebdea
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+21.3pp

ROI

+99%

Win rate

52% @ 30.7¢

Brier

0.160

Resolved

125

Avg size

$42

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	39% (20/51)	+100%	51
Science	50% (2/4)	+18%	4
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Politics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other51 bets
Hit rate
39% (20/51)
ROI
+100%
Science4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+18%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Politics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

38% hit · 22/58

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup?	Yes	$15	43.4¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 4?	Yes	$1	9.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 4?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Will Norway win on 2026-09-27?	Yes	$21	43.0¢	Lost
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?	Yes	$17	40.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on September 28?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 29?	Yes	$2	81.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 26?	Yes	$14	14.0¢	Lost
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?	Yes	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-08-30?	Yes	$16	11.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 1?	No	$9	88.0¢	Won
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?	Yes	$31	55.0¢	Won
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19?	Yes	$30	48.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	No	$1	0.3¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 16?	No	$460	75.4¢	Won
Will Manchester City win on 2026-08-05?	Yes	$76	77.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?	Yes	$15	30.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 4?	Yes	$3	24.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 26?	Yes	$1	10.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 15?	No	$80	80.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 22?	Yes	$2	1.5¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 17?	Yes	$7	17.0¢	Won
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 30-July 6?	Yes	$4	3.5¢	Lost
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?	Yes	$643	38.1¢	Won
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	$1	5.0¢	Lost
Netanyahu out by March 31?	Yes	$2	0.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 29?	Yes	$3	50.0¢	Won
Will Nene Royal win AGT Season 21?	No	$4	7.0¢	Lost
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 3 - 0 Sunderland AFC?	Yes	$4	10.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 19?	Yes	$10	2.5¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 29?	Yes	$1	1.8¢	Lost
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 3 - 1 Sunderland AFC?	Yes	$4	8.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 25?	No	$10	48.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 22?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	Yes	$1.1k	33.1¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 21?	Yes	$2	2.0¢	Lost
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?	Yes	$15	67.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 12?	No	$517	89.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 30?	Yes	$1	7.0¢	Lost
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?	Yes	$15	25.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30?	Yes	$2	89.2¢	Won
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?	Yes	$31	31.7¢	Won
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 120 and 134 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?	Yes	$2.0k	56.7¢	Won
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 0 Sunderland AFC?	Yes	$4	13.0¢	Lost
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-08-29?	Yes	$16	14.0¢	Lost
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?	No	$1	0.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 26?	Yes	$2	31.7¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 25?	Yes	$1	4.9¢	Lost
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?	No	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 11?	Yes	$1	0.6¢	Lost

Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 Carabao Cup?Won
Yes$15 @ 43.4¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 4?Lost
Yes$1 @ 9.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 4?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Will Norway win on 2026-09-27?Lost
Yes$21 @ 43.0¢
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-03?Won
Yes$17 @ 40.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 22°C on September 28?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on January 29?Lost
Yes$2 @ 81.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on April 26?Lost
Yes$14 @ 14.0¢
Based FDV above $300M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Ipswich Town FC win on 2026-08-30?Lost
Yes$16 @ 11.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 1?Won
No$9 @ 88.0¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?Won
Yes$31 @ 55.0¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19?Won
Yes$30 @ 48.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
No$1 @ 0.3¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 16?Won
No$460 @ 75.4¢
Will Manchester City win on 2026-08-05?Won
Yes$76 @ 77.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?Lost
Yes$15 @ 30.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 4?Lost
Yes$3 @ 24.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 26?Lost
Yes$1 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 27°C on August 15?Won
No$80 @ 80.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 22?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C on April 17?Won
Yes$7 @ 17.0¢
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 30-July 6?Lost
Yes$4 @ 3.5¢
Next Thai Prime Minister Chosen by March 31?Won
Yes$643 @ 38.1¢
Based FDV above $200M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$1 @ 5.0¢
Netanyahu out by March 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 29?Won
Yes$3 @ 50.0¢
Will Nene Royal win AGT Season 21?Lost
No$4 @ 7.0¢
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 3 - 0 Sunderland AFC?Lost
Yes$4 @ 10.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 19?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 29?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.8¢
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 3 - 1 Sunderland AFC?Lost
Yes$4 @ 8.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 15°C or higher on March 25?Won
No$10 @ 48.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 22?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will Bhumjaithai Party (BJT) win the most seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 33.1¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 21?Lost
Yes$2 @ 2.0¢
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?Lost
Yes$15 @ 67.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 14°C or below on April 12?Won
No$517 @ 89.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 24°C on September 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 7.0¢
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$15 @ 25.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 30?Won
Yes$2 @ 89.2¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?Won
Yes$31 @ 31.7¢
Will the People’s Party (PPLE) win between 120 and 134 seats in the 2026 Thai legislative election?Won
Yes$2.0k @ 56.7¢
Exact Score: Manchester City FC 2 - 0 Sunderland AFC?Lost
Yes$4 @ 13.0¢
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-08-29?Lost
Yes$16 @ 14.0¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 7, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 0.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 26?Lost
Yes$2 @ 31.7¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 25?Lost
Yes$1 @ 4.9¢
Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 8, 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 0.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 on July 11?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.6¢

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