0x57d4…ac0d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x57d494d8aecd90fb4f48423974f7e48ec1f9ac0d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.4pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

22% @ 18.9¢

Brier

0.106

Resolved

5876

Avg size

$11

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	32% (406/1269)	+22%	1269
Culture	43% (10/23)	-32%	23
Sports	7% (1/14)	-63%	14
Politics	30% (3/10)	-68%	10
Tech	50% (1/2)	+62%	2
Business	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other1269 bets
Hit rate
32% (406/1269)
ROI
+22%
Culture23 bets
Hit rate
43% (10/23)
ROI
-32%
Sports14 bets
Hit rate
7% (1/14)
ROI
-63%
Politics10 bets
Hit rate
30% (3/10)
ROI
-68%
Tech2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+62%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

32% hit · 421/1319

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will "The Official Release Party of a Showgirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 53m?	Yes	$5	4.0¢	Lost
Will Die With a Smile by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars be the 2nd most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?	Yes	$2	3.3¢	Lost
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 1, 2026?	Yes	$4	5.1¢	Lost
Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before May?	Yes	$20	18.0¢	Won
Will Sinners win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$1	0.5¢	Lost
Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 50?	No	$4	89.0¢	Won
Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 50?	Yes	$234	43.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Transgender" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?	Yes	$16	33.7¢	Lost
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$7	11.0¢	Lost
Will Taylor Swift say "Marry" or "Married" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?	No	$5	5.0¢	Lost
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days?	Yes	$1	2.5¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get 45m or more views on day 1?	Yes	$6	7.3¢	Lost
Hegseth test vote passes today?	No	$0	4.0¢	Lost
Will 'Challengers' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?	Yes	$2	4.3¢	Lost
Will 'TEXAS HOLD 'EM' win Song of the Year?	Yes	$6	6.0¢	Lost
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$102	17.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September?	Yes	$1	40.0¢	Lost
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)	Oilers	$20	42.0¢	Lost
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 7?	No	$11	85.0¢	Won
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$4	55.0¢	Lost
Will Kanye launch a coin by March 7?	Yes	$1	8.0¢	Lost
Bears vs. Vikings	Vikings	$21	77.4¢	Won
Will Taylor Swift hold exactly 5 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?	Yes	$17	31.0¢	Lost
Will Fear & Greed Index report "Extreme Fear" on March 31?	Yes	$5	23.0¢	Won
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars?	Yes	$11	37.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy in April?	Yes	$2	2.4¢	Won
Will 'The Fate of Ophelia' be the highest ranked song from Taylor Swift’s new album on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18?	No	$1	3.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" while addressing the nation on December 17?	No	$10	48.0¢	Won
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$151	65.7¢	Lost
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $70m and $75m?	Yes	$26	37.2¢	Won
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?	No	$52	52.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?	No	$261	50.1¢	Lost
Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August?	Yes	$10	23.0¢	Lost
Will “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” be the top global Netflix show this week? (October 28)	Yes	$1	3.5¢	Lost
Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be greater than 80?	Yes	$23	5.6¢	Lost
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$10	16.0¢	Lost
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend?	Yes	$45	13.5¢	Lost
Will Sinners win Best Original Score – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?	Yes	$45	89.0¢	Won
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?	Yes	$36	41.3¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25–30 million views on day 1?	No	$16	45.0¢	Lost
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$14	13.2¢	Lost
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$68	10.1¢	Lost
Will Weapons win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$3	0.6¢	Lost
Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year?	Yes	$22	8.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say “Million / Billion / Trillion” 15+ times during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?	No	$35	37.0¢	Won
Will Taylor Swift say "Super Bowl" during Tonight Show on October 6?	No	$93	65.2¢	Won
Will Katherine LaNasa win Best Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?	Yes	$0	6.0¢	Lost
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?	Yes	$18	88.0¢	Won
Will Saylor say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 5+ times during his Strategy World 2025 keynote?	No	$9	22.8¢	Lost
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?	Yes	$81	33.2¢	Lost

Will "The Official Release Party of a Showgirl" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 48m and 53m?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.0¢
Will Die With a Smile by Lady Gaga and Bruno Mars be the 2nd most streamed song globally on Spotify for 2025?Lost
Yes$2 @ 3.3¢
Will Trump’s approval rating be less than 38.0 on May 1, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 5.1¢
Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before May?Won
Yes$20 @ 18.0¢
Will Sinners win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.5¢
Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 50?Won
No$4 @ 89.0¢
Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be less than 50?Lost
Yes$234 @ 43.8¢
Will Trump say "Transgender" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on September 21?Lost
Yes$16 @ 33.7¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$7 @ 11.0¢
Will Taylor Swift say "Marry" or "Married" during Travis Kelce's podcast on Wednesday?Lost
No$5 @ 5.0¢
Will Trump pardon Derek Chauvin in his first 100 days?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.5¢
Will MrBeast's next video get 45m or more views on day 1?Lost
Yes$6 @ 7.3¢
Hegseth test vote passes today?Lost
No$0 @ 4.0¢
Will 'Challengers' be nominated for Oscar for Best Picture?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.3¢
Will 'TEXAS HOLD 'EM' win Song of the Year?Lost
Yes$6 @ 6.0¢
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
Yes$102 @ 17.0¢
Will annual inflation increase by 3.1% in September?Lost
Yes$1 @ 40.0¢
Spread: Oilers (-1.5)Lost
Oilers$20 @ 42.0¢
Will Trump's 538 approval rating be between 48.0% and 48.4% on March 7?Won
No$11 @ 85.0¢
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
No$4 @ 55.0¢
Will Kanye launch a coin by March 7?Lost
Yes$1 @ 8.0¢
Bears vs. VikingsWon
Vikings$21 @ 77.4¢
Will Taylor Swift hold exactly 5 spots in the Billboard Hot 100 Top 10 for the week of November 1, 2025?Lost
Yes$17 @ 31.0¢
Will Fear & Greed Index report "Extreme Fear" on March 31?Won
Yes$5 @ 23.0¢
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 2025 Oscars?Lost
Yes$11 @ 37.0¢
Will Trump meet with Zelenskyy in April?Won
Yes$2 @ 2.4¢
Will 'The Fate of Ophelia' be the highest ranked song from Taylor Swift’s new album on the Billboard Hot 100 for the week of October 18?Lost
No$1 @ 3.9¢
Will Trump say "Putin" or "Zelenskyy" while addressing the nation on December 17?Won
No$10 @ 48.0¢
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$151 @ 65.7¢
Will "Demon Slayer" Opening Weekend Box Office be between $70m and $75m?Won
Yes$26 @ 37.2¢
Will Lilo and Stitch be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?Lost
No$52 @ 52.0¢
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?Lost
No$261 @ 50.1¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 43% before August?Lost
Yes$10 @ 23.0¢
Will “Monster: The Ed Gein Story” be the top global Netflix show this week? (October 28)Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.5¢
Will "Captain America: Brave New World" Rotten Tomatoes score be greater than 80?Lost
Yes$23 @ 5.6¢
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$10 @ 16.0¢
Will 'Snow White' gross more than 49m on opening weekend?Lost
Yes$45 @ 13.5¢
Will Sinners win Best Original Score – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?Won
Yes$45 @ 89.0¢
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?Lost
Yes$36 @ 41.3¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25–30 million views on day 1?Lost
No$16 @ 45.0¢
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$14 @ 13.2¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$68 @ 10.1¢
Will Weapons win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.6¢
Will 'Now and Then' win Record of the Year?Lost
Yes$22 @ 8.7¢
Will Trump say “Million / Billion / Trillion” 15+ times during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?Won
No$35 @ 37.0¢
Will Taylor Swift say "Super Bowl" during Tonight Show on October 6?Won
No$93 @ 65.2¢
Will Katherine LaNasa win Best Actress in a Drama Series at the 2026 SAG Awards?Lost
Yes$0 @ 6.0¢
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?Won
Yes$18 @ 88.0¢
Will Saylor say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 5+ times during his Strategy World 2025 keynote?Lost
No$9 @ 22.8¢
Will 'Sonic 3' gross between $64-72m on 3-day opening weekend?Lost
Yes$81 @ 33.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$128	64.0¢
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?	Culture	No	$90	79.5¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 50% in 2026?	Politics	No	$37	86.1¢
Will Beyoncé release an album in 2026?	Culture	No	$35	40.2¢
Will the cure (Olivia Rodrigo) win Song of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Culture	No	$21	52.9¢
Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?	Culture	Yes	$20	44.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$20	17.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$12	19.7¢
Will Confessions II (Madonna) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Culture	Yes	$5	4.6¢
Will Dandelion (Ella Langley) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Culture	Yes	$3	1.2¢
Will Jay Z perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?	Sports	No	$3	4.9¢
Will Playboi Carti release an album in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$3	53.0¢
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$2	50.0¢
Will Ryan Gosling be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	Yes	$2	49.0¢
Will Heated Rivalry be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?	Tech	Yes	$1	2.0¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1	4.6¢
Will Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally (Harry Styles) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Culture	Yes	$0	0.1¢
Will The Fate of Ophelia (Taylor Swift) win Song of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?	Culture	Yes	$0	0.4¢

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$128 @ 64.0¢
Will Sabrina Carpenter be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?Culture
No$90 @ 79.5¢
Will Trump's approval rating hit 50% in 2026?Politics
No$37 @ 86.1¢
Will Beyoncé release an album in 2026?Culture
No$35 @ 40.2¢
Will the cure (Olivia Rodrigo) win Song of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Culture
No$21 @ 52.9¢
Will Pablo Picasso be #1 in global fine art auction turnover for 2026?Culture
Yes$20 @ 44.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.25T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$20 @ 17.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$12 @ 19.7¢
Will Confessions II (Madonna) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Culture
Yes$5 @ 4.6¢
Will Dandelion (Ella Langley) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Culture
Yes$3 @ 1.2¢
Will Jay Z perform at the 2027 Big Game halftime show?Sports
No$3 @ 4.9¢
Will Playboi Carti release an album in 2026?Culture
Yes$3 @ 53.0¢
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$2 @ 50.0¢
Will Ryan Gosling be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
Yes$2 @ 49.0¢
Will Heated Rivalry be the #1 searched TV show on Google this year?Tech
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1 @ 4.6¢
Will Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally (Harry Styles) win Album of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Culture
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will The Fate of Ophelia (Taylor Swift) win Song of the Year at the 69th Annual GRAMMY Awards?Culture
Yes$0 @ 0.4¢