0x572c…4360

Specialization by sphere

• Other38 bets

  Hit rate

  66% (25/38)

  ROI

  +22%

• Politics20 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (10/20)

  ROI

  -12%

• Geopolitics5 bets

  Hit rate

  40% (2/5)

  ROI

  -78%

• Economy3 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (3/3)

  ROI

  +16%

• Crypto3 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (1/3)

  ROI

  -49%

• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 26.0¢
• Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
  No$1 @ 75.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$3 @ 87.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 21.8¢
• Will Australia send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 1.3¢
• US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
  Yes$12 @ 15.3¢
• Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 25.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 16.8¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
  No$1 @ 80.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 23.5¢
• Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Won
  No$4 @ 77.2¢
• US forces enter Iran by March 31?Won
  No$2 @ 85.3¢
• US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
  No$5 @ 84.6¢
• US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
  Yes$2 @ 13.4¢
• Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$7 @ 84.8¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$1 @ 65.0¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 12.2¢
• Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Won
  Yes$1 @ 71.0¢
• Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?Won
  Yes$2 @ 60.9¢
• Will Trump visit China by April 30?Lost
  Yes$7 @ 86.9¢
• US strikes Iraq by February 28?Lost
  No$2 @ 55.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Lost
  No$13 @ 78.2¢
• Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?Won
  No$4 @ 88.7¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
  No$1 @ 78.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 9.4¢
• Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 1?Won
  No$1 @ 58.0¢
• Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30?Won
  No$1 @ 64.0¢
• Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Lost
  No$64 @ 49.6¢
• Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
  Yes$1 @ 35.0¢
• Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June?Won
  No$3 @ 87.0¢
• Will the ECB announce no change at the April 2026 meeting?Won
  Yes$1 @ 77.8¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$1 @ 44.0¢
• Greta Thunberg arrested by June 30?Won
  No$1 @ 80.0¢
• US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 15.1¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Won
  No$6 @ 87.0¢
• Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 11.6¢
• US forces enter Iran by April 30?Lost
  No$6 @ 16.1¢
• US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
  Yes$3 @ 81.0¢
• Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading?Won
  No$2 @ 89.0¢
• Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?Lost
  No$4 @ 60.0¢
• Will Pete Hegseth enter Iran by June 30?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
• Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?Lost
  No$3 @ 14.7¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Lost
  No$1 @ 85.0¢
• Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting?Lost
  Yes$3 @ 53.7¢
• Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?Won
  No$1 @ 75.0¢
• Netanyahu out by June 30?Won
  No$6 @ 83.0¢
• Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Won
  No$4 @ 73.3¢
• US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026?Lost
  Yes$2 @ 6.7¢
• Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by March 31?Won
  No$1 @ 79.0¢
• Will Donald Trump announce Lee Zeldin as the next United States Attorney General by June 30?Won
  No$3 @ 55.9¢

Current positions

• Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
  No$50 @ 91.9¢
• Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Politics
  No$19 @ 91.5¢
• Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
  No$14 @ 93.0¢
• Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
  No$10 @ 28.8¢
• Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
  No$7 @ 92.7¢
• Netanyahu out by June 30?Politics
  No$6 @ 83.0¢
• OpenAI IPO before 2027?Tech
  No$6 @ 26.4¢
• Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?Sports
  No$5 @ 36.3¢
• Will OpenAI IPO by August 31 2026?Tech
  No$5 @ 93.5¢
• Will OpenAI IPO by September 30 2026?Tech
  No$4 @ 60.5¢
• AI bubble burst in 2026?Tech
  No$3 @ 78.4¢
• Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?Culture
  No$3 @ 99.0¢
• Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30?Politics
  Yes$3 @ 20.0¢
• Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?Politics
  No$2 @ 54.9¢
• Will OpenAI IPO by July 31 2026?Tech
  No$2 @ 98.2¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
  No$2 @ 86.0¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
  Yes$2 @ 46.5¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics
  Yes$1 @ 47.8¢
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?Politics
  No$1 @ 84.0¢
• Will GameStop acquire eBay?Other
  No$1 @ 80.0¢
• US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?—
  No$1 @ 95.0¢
• Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June?Other
  No$1 @ 84.0¢
• Will Elon Musk’s net worth be at least $800b on June 30?Economy
  Yes$1 @ 93.0¢
• Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$1 @ 86.0¢
• Major CEX insolvent in 2026?Crypto
  No$1 @ 94.0¢
• Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?Economy
  No$1 @ 83.0¢
• Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
  No$1 @ 83.0¢
• SEC removes quarterly reporting requirement?Economy
  Yes$1 @ 56.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 21, 2026?Politics
  No$1 @ 97.8¢
• Anthropic CEO arrested?Politics
  No$1 @ 98.6¢