0x56e3…81cc

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x56e3d9a06d455e0eac8a60a639451ad3252281cc
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+10.5pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

72% @ 61.5¢

Brier

0.134

Resolved

584

Avg size

$221

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	65% (49/75)	+20%	75
Tech	71% (5/7)	+6%	7
Economy	86% (6/7)	-18%	7
Politics	33% (2/6)	+0%	6
Sports	100% (2/2)	+24%	2

Other75 bets
Hit rate
65% (49/75)
ROI
+20%
Tech7 bets
Hit rate
71% (5/7)
ROI
+6%
Economy7 bets
Hit rate
86% (6/7)
ROI
-18%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
+0%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+24%

Track record

66% hit · 64/97

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$2.1k	82.7¢	Lost
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?	Yes	$134	83.8¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?	Yes	$10	17.0¢	Lost
Will Good Job Nicky win Sing for Greece 2026?	Yes	$5	9.5¢	Lost
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$284	52.2¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$1.0k	86.5¢	Won
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$1.0k	26.0¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$14	88.0¢	Won
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?	Yes	$1.3k	82.0¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$3.3k	23.5¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	No	$17	89.0¢	Won
Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18?	No	$20	47.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	Yes	$415	83.0¢	Won
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	Yes	$2.1k	69.0¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3500 on July 18 at 5PM ET?	Yes	$20	17.0¢	Won
Knicks vs. Spurs	Knicks	$348	69.0¢	Won
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?	Yes	$425	85.0¢	Won
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?	Yes	$6	20.2¢	Won
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?	Yes	$2.6k	86.0¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$2.5k	79.4¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$2.4k	38.5¢	Lost
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?	Yes	$4.0k	65.4¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?	Yes	$20	28.0¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	$1.6k	78.7¢	Won
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?	Yes	$12	88.8¢	Won
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?	No	$31	33.0¢	Lost
US government shutdown Saturday?	Yes	$4.6k	89.0¢	Won
Ethereum above $4,000 on August 4?	Yes	$23	22.0¢	Lost
Government shutdown on Saturday?	No	$491	81.8¢	Won
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$982	49.0¢	Lost
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$2	20.2¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?	Yes	$7.2k	79.4¢	Won
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?	Yes	$30	86.0¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$4.2k	56.9¢	Won
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15?	Yes	$84	90.0¢	Won
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Yes	$424	83.0¢	Won
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?	No	$4.9k	87.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?	Yes	$4.5k	75.3¢	Won
Will Vienna host Eurovision 2026?	Yes	$50	68.9¢	Won
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$92	60.0¢	Won
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Yes	$870	87.0¢	Won
Will Akylas win Sing for Greece 2026?	Yes	$49	88.0¢	Won
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?	Yes	$33	17.0¢	Lost
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	Yes	$1.3k	57.8¢	Won
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?	Yes	$4.9k	84.5¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$300	15.0¢	Lost
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?	Yes	$898	28.9¢	Lost
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday?	No	$20	45.0¢	Lost
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31?	No	$94	85.2¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?	Yes	$199	66.0¢	Won

Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$2.1k @ 82.7¢
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?Won
Yes$134 @ 83.8¢
No change in Fed interest rates after September 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$10 @ 17.0¢
Will Good Job Nicky win Sing for Greece 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.5¢
Will Google have the second-best AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$284 @ 52.2¢
Will Anthropic have the top AI model at the end of June 2026?Won
Yes$1.0k @ 86.5¢
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$1.0k @ 26.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$14 @ 88.0¢
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the best AI model on April 17, 2026?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 82.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$3.3k @ 23.5¢
Will NVIDIA be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?Won
No$17 @ 89.0¢
Bitcoin above $118,000 on July 18?Won
No$20 @ 47.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Won
Yes$415 @ 83.0¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 69.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $3500 on July 18 at 5PM ET?Won
Yes$20 @ 17.0¢
Knicks vs. SpursWon
Knicks$348 @ 69.0¢
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?Won
Yes$425 @ 85.0¢
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?Won
Yes$6 @ 20.2¢
Will Claude 5 be released by March 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.6k @ 86.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?Won
Yes$2.5k @ 79.4¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$2.4k @ 38.5¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?Won
Yes$4.0k @ 65.4¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$20 @ 28.0¢
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Won
Yes$1.6k @ 78.7¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?Won
Yes$12 @ 88.8¢
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?Lost
No$31 @ 33.0¢
US government shutdown Saturday?Won
Yes$4.6k @ 89.0¢
Ethereum above $4,000 on August 4?Lost
Yes$23 @ 22.0¢
Government shutdown on Saturday?Won
No$491 @ 81.8¢
Will Google have the #2 AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$982 @ 49.0¢
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of March 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 20.2¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?Won
Yes$7.2k @ 79.4¢
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?Won
Yes$30 @ 86.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$4.2k @ 56.9¢
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 25% and 40% on August 15?Won
Yes$84 @ 90.0¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Won
Yes$424 @ 83.0¢
Will the government shutdown last 7 days or more?Won
No$4.9k @ 87.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?Won
Yes$4.5k @ 75.3¢
Will Vienna host Eurovision 2026?Won
Yes$50 @ 68.9¢
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?Won
Yes$92 @ 60.0¢
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?Won
Yes$870 @ 87.0¢
Will Akylas win Sing for Greece 2026?Won
Yes$49 @ 88.0¢
Will Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?Lost
Yes$33 @ 17.0¢
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
Yes$1.3k @ 57.8¢
Will the United States win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?Won
Yes$4.9k @ 84.5¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$300 @ 15.0¢
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?Lost
Yes$898 @ 28.9¢
Andy Byron out as Astronomer CEO by next Friday?Lost
No$20 @ 45.0¢
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together by August 31?Won
No$94 @ 85.2¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?Won
Yes$199 @ 66.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$2.1k	85.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$2.1k	82.7¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$2.0k	38.9¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	68.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.0k	55.0¢

Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$2.1k @ 85.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$2.1k @ 82.7¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$2.0k @ 38.9¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 68.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$1.0k @ 55.0¢