0x564f…7026

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x564f22744b7941ade18d5e0e4f347c30e3057026
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.8pp

ROI

+13%

Win rate

21% @ 18.1¢

Brier

0.097

Resolved

2210

Avg size

$29

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Tech	38% (176/460)	+22%	460
Other	47% (105/222)	+16%	222
Politics	41% (29/71)	+7%	71
Economy	27% (15/56)	+30%	56
Geopolitics	25% (13/53)	-18%	53
Science	65% (33/51)	+40%	51
Sports	33% (3/9)	-81%	9
Culture	83% (5/6)	+64%	6

Tech460 bets
Hit rate
38% (176/460)
ROI
+22%
Other222 bets
Hit rate
47% (105/222)
ROI
+16%
Politics71 bets
Hit rate
41% (29/71)
ROI
+7%
Economy56 bets
Hit rate
27% (15/56)
ROI
+30%
Geopolitics53 bets
Hit rate
25% (13/53)
ROI
-18%
Science51 bets
Hit rate
65% (33/51)
ROI
+40%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
33% (3/9)
ROI
-81%
Culture6 bets
Hit rate
83% (5/6)
ROI
+64%

Track record

41% hit · 379/928

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	$152	55.0¢	Lost
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?	No	$132	66.0¢	Lost
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	No	$129	46.7¢	Lost
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	Yes	$53	20.6¢	Lost
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	$10	8.3¢	Lost
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	$17	11.7¢	Lost
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	$52	85.0¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	$74	92.0¢	Won
Will White House post 200+ posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	Yes	$216	77.0¢	Lost
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$46	28.6¢	Lost
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$67	51.8¢	Lost
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?	Yes	$13	27.2¢	Won
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?	Yes	$32	16.4¢	Lost
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?	Yes	$79	40.7¢	Won
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?	Yes	$15	13.2¢	Lost
Will Take-Two Q2 net bookings be above $1.80B?	No	$151	69.4¢	Won
Will Take-Two Q2 net bookings be above $1.65B?	Yes	$81	67.2¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?	No	$7	52.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$16	55.0¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?	Yes	$243	67.7¢	Won
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026?	No	$198	59.0¢	Lost
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 14?	Yes	$318	73.3¢	Won
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Yes	$128	64.0¢	Lost
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?	Yes	$134	67.0¢	Lost
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	$3	65.0¢	Lost
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	$19	6.5¢	Lost
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	$4	4.1¢	Lost
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?	No	$199	88.7¢	Won
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of November 2?	Yes	$2	4.0¢	Lost
Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?	Yes	$40	13.6¢	Lost
Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?	Yes	$50	50.0¢	Lost
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?	Yes	$2	54.2¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?	Yes	$12	39.0¢	Lost
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	$9	36.8¢	Won
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #1 US song this week?	Yes	$12	70.0¢	Won
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #1 song this week?	Yes	$114	54.4¢	Won
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	$35	44.0¢	Lost
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?	Yes	$20	68.0¢	Won
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 4, 2026?	Yes	$10	2.4¢	Lost
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?	Yes	$15	75.0¢	Won
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?	Yes	$1	2.0¢	Lost
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $7.00 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$11	14.9¢	Won
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House	Yes	$142	71.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$140	70.0¢	Won
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?	Yes	$21	42.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?	Yes	$34	34.0¢	Won
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Yes	$722	72.2¢	Won
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 3, 2026?	Yes	$3	0.6¢	Lost
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	$455	75.4¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?	Yes	$128	54.8¢	Lost

Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Lost
No$152 @ 55.0¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Lost
No$132 @ 66.0¢
Will the highest score achieved on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Lost
No$129 @ 46.7¢
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$53 @ 20.6¢
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released on November 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 8.3¢
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 11.7¢
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?Won
Yes$52 @ 85.0¢
Will Zelenskyy post 120-139 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?Won
No$74 @ 92.0¢
Will White House post 200+ posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$216 @ 77.0¢
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1480 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$46 @ 28.6¢
Will Kimi K3.1 Pro debut at a score of at least 1470 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$67 @ 51.8¢
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 9 and November 15, 2026?Won
Yes$13 @ 27.2¢
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$32 @ 16.4¢
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 10, 2026?Won
Yes$79 @ 40.7¢
Will Gemini Carbon be released between November 16 and November 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$15 @ 13.2¢
Will Take-Two Q2 net bookings be above $1.80B?Won
No$151 @ 69.4¢
Will Take-Two Q2 net bookings be above $1.65B?Lost
Yes$81 @ 67.2¢
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $40 in 2026?Lost
No$7 @ 52.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $50 by June 30, 2027?Lost
Yes$16 @ 55.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5.2+ debut at an output token price of at least $40 by June 30, 2027?Won
Yes$243 @ 67.7¢
Will Claude Fable's output price be at or below $45 in 2026?Lost
No$198 @ 59.0¢
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 14?Won
Yes$318 @ 73.3¢
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?Lost
Yes$128 @ 64.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the NC-09 House seat?Lost
Yes$134 @ 67.0¢
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 65.0¢
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$19 @ 6.5¢
Will NYC Mayor post 40-59 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 4.1¢
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from November 3 to November 10, 2026?Won
No$199 @ 88.7¢
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of November 2?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.0¢
Will Muse from Meta be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?Lost
Yes$40 @ 13.6¢
Will TikTok Pro - Events be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on November 6?Lost
Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
Will GPT Astra 6.1+ be released between November 2 and November 8, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 54.2¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CO-03 House seat?Lost
Yes$12 @ 39.0¢
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?Won
Yes$9 @ 36.8¢
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #1 US song this week?Won
Yes$12 @ 70.0¢
Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the #1 song this week?Won
Yes$114 @ 54.4¢
Will CZ post 40-59 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$35 @ 44.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-17 House seat?Won
Yes$20 @ 68.0¢
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 4, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.4¢
Will Vivek Ramaswamy pull the Amy Acton mother ad?Won
Yes$15 @ 75.0¢
Will NYC Mayor post 0-19 posts from October 30 to November 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.0¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index hit $7.00 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$11 @ 14.9¢
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HouseWon
Yes$142 @ 71.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$140 @ 70.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MO-02 House seat?Won
Yes$21 @ 42.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas governor race in 2026?Won
Yes$34 @ 34.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Won
Yes$722 @ 72.2¢
Will Gemini Carbon be released on November 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 0.6¢
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?Won
Yes$455 @ 75.4¢
Will Zelenskyy post 80-99 posts from October 27 to November 3, 2026?Lost
Yes$128 @ 54.8¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.1k	44.3¢
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?	Science	Yes	$1.1k	57.3¢
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$974	65.1¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$810	51.5¢
Will US births in 2026 be between 3.56 million and 3.59 million?	Economy	Yes	$714	40.3¢
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$617	85.1¢
Will there be 35 to 49 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?	Science	Yes	$540	31.4¢
Will the Ornn RTX 6000 Index be between $1.50 and $1.75 on November 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$520	51.9¢
Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $100 in 2026?	Tech	No	$519	77.2¢
Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$432	38.0¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$416	34.5¢
Will Jay Z release an album in 2026?	Culture	No	$412	70.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$407	62.5¢
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?	Science	Yes	$403	48.7¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $1.50 and $2.00 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$393	82.1¢
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $397,000 on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$386	43.3¢
Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$382	39.8¢
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$377	65.0¢
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$373	14.9¢
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?	Tech	No	$364	54.9¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$356	74.0¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$350	50.6¢
Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$348	42.0¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$344	43.4¢
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 14?	Culture	Yes	$318	73.3¢
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?	Science	Yes	$311	18.3¢
Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?	Tech	Yes	$306	67.2¢
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$300	41.4¢
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?	Science	Yes	$293	26.3¢
Will the median home value in the US be between $403,000 and $407,000 on December 31?	Economy	Yes	$290	46.3¢

Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$1.1k @ 44.3¢
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation stay above 3,510 ft?Science
Yes$1.1k @ 57.3¢
Will the median home value in the DC Metro be less than $503,000 on December 31?Economy
Yes$974 @ 65.1¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$810 @ 51.5¢
Will US births in 2026 be between 3.56 million and 3.59 million?Economy
Yes$714 @ 40.3¢
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$617 @ 85.1¢
Will there be 35 to 49 West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases among NYC residents in 2026?Science
Yes$540 @ 31.4¢
Will the Ornn RTX 6000 Index be between $1.50 and $1.75 on November 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$520 @ 51.9¢
Will GPT Astra's output price be at or above $100 in 2026?Tech
No$519 @ 77.2¢
Will the next GPT Terra model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?Tech
Yes$432 @ 38.0¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$416 @ 34.5¢
Will Jay Z release an album in 2026?Culture
No$412 @ 70.1¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$407 @ 62.5¢
Will the lowest 2026 Great Salt Lake elevation be 4,189.5 or 4,189.6 ft?Science
Yes$403 @ 48.7¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $1.50 and $2.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech
No$393 @ 82.1¢
Will the median home value in Austin Metro be less than $397,000 on December 31?Economy
Yes$386 @ 43.3¢
Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?Tech
Yes$382 @ 39.8¢
Will NYC Mayor post 20-39 posts from November 6 to November 13, 2026?Politics
Yes$377 @ 65.0¢
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
Yes$373 @ 14.9¢
Will the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Tech
No$364 @ 54.9¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$356 @ 74.0¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.00 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$350 @ 50.6¢
Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$348 @ 42.0¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$344 @ 43.4¢
Will "You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love - Olivia Rodrigo" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the week of November 14?Culture
Yes$318 @ 73.3¢
Will Lake Powell's minimum elevation be at least 3,500 but below 3,510 ft?Science
Yes$311 @ 18.3¢
Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of November 2026?Tech
Yes$306 @ 67.2¢
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$300 @ 41.4¢
Will the lowest St. Louis river level be -1.00 to 0.99 ft by November 30?Science
Yes$293 @ 26.3¢
Will the median home value in the US be between $403,000 and $407,000 on December 31?Economy
Yes$290 @ 46.3¢