0x564f…7026

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x564f22744b7941ade18d5e0e4f347c30e3057026
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.7pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

24% @ 20.2¢

Brier

0.091

Resolved

1203

Avg size

$25

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	43% (77/181)	+18%	181
Tech	32% (26/81)	+22%	81
Politics	42% (14/33)	+49%	33
Geopolitics	12% (2/17)	+6%	17
Sports	33% (3/9)	-81%	9
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other181 bets
Hit rate
43% (77/181)
ROI
+18%
Tech81 bets
Hit rate
32% (26/81)
ROI
+22%
Politics33 bets
Hit rate
42% (14/33)
ROI
+49%
Geopolitics17 bets
Hit rate
12% (2/17)
ROI
+6%
Sports9 bets
Hit rate
33% (3/9)
ROI
-81%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

38% hit · 122/322

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?	No	$77	58.0¢	Won
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 28, 2026?	Yes	$36	2.2¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$91	11.0¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$510	52.7¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$4	2.4¢	Lost
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?	No	$913	75.2¢	Won
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?	No	$131	59.0¢	Won
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 16, 2026?	Yes	$14	2.4¢	Lost
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	No	$9	85.0¢	Won
Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$26	6.3¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$56	7.3¢	Lost
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$103	16.8¢	Lost
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?	No	$17	20.8¢	Lost
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$26	0.7¢	Lost
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?	Yes	$279	15.8¢	Lost
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$18	0.9¢	Lost
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?	Yes	$224	27.8¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$96	1.7¢	Lost
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?	Yes	$0	2.0¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?	Yes	$50	87.0¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?	Yes	$300	46.8¢	Won
Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?	Yes	$0	1.0¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$26	1.4¢	Lost
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)	Nikita Krylov	$5	10.0¢	Lost
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$0	0.6¢	Lost
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?	Yes	$77	12.3¢	Lost
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$33	2.4¢	Lost
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?	Yes	$60	60.0¢	Lost
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?	No	$41	54.9¢	Won
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $7.00 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?	No	$58	17.9¢	Lost
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$175	12.0¢	Lost
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	$2	8.0¢	Lost
Will Alibaba have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$4	0.4¢	Lost
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$97	7.6¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?	Yes	$516	50.6¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?	Yes	$4	16.3¢	Won
What percent of U.S. cattle inventory area will be in drought? (week of September 1)	No	$25	56.5¢	Lost
Will Ulta say "Uncertainty" during earnings call?	No	$15	8.2¢	Lost
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?	Yes	$35	19.9¢	Won
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?	No	$51	30.0¢	Won
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$0	5.0¢	Won
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 17, 2026?	Yes	$11	6.2¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	No	$5	41.0¢	Won
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?	Yes	$21	51.5¢	Won
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$17	1.5¢	Lost
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?	Yes	$122	80.8¢	Won
Will New Mexico have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?	Yes	$151	87.7¢	Won
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?	Yes	$4	10.4¢	Won
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?	No	$132	46.0¢	Lost

Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027?Won
No$77 @ 58.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$36 @ 2.2¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$91 @ 11.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model debut at a score of at least 1505 by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$510 @ 52.7¢
Will OpenAI have the second best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 2.4¢
Will the Ornn H200 Index be between $5.00 and $6.00 on June 30, 2026?Won
No$913 @ 75.2¢
Will the next GPT Sol model (5.7+) debut at a score of at least 1460 by June 30, 2027?Won
No$131 @ 59.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on July 16, 2026?Lost
Yes$14 @ 2.4¢
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 85.0¢
Will OpenAI be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 6.3¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$56 @ 7.3¢
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$103 @ 16.8¢
OpenAI reports another AI sandbox escape by October 15?Lost
No$17 @ 20.8¢
Will Baidu have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 0.7¢
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?Lost
Yes$279 @ 15.8¢
Will no country replace Iran in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$18 @ 0.9¢
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from August 4 to August 11, 2026?Lost
Yes$224 @ 27.8¢
Will Alibaba have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$96 @ 1.7¢
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 16 to June 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 2.0¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 12 2026?Won
Yes$50 @ 87.0¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1?Won
Yes$300 @ 46.8¢
Will Baidu have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 0.2¢
Will Khamenei post 10-14 posts from June 12 to June 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 1.0¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the UAE by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 1.4¢
UFC 329: Robert Whittaker vs. Nikita Krylov (Light Heavyweight, Prelims)Lost
Nikita Krylov$5 @ 10.0¢
Will Z.ai have the third best AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.6¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?Lost
Yes$77 @ 12.3¢
Will DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$33 @ 2.4¢
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 15?Lost
Yes$60 @ 60.0¢
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?Won
No$41 @ 54.9¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $7.00 (HIGH) by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$58 @ 17.9¢
Will Anthropic be the second-best Math AI lab at the end of August 2026?Lost
Yes$175 @ 12.0¢
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.0¢
Will Alibaba have the best Coding AI model at the end of July 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 0.4¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$97 @ 7.6¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?Won
Yes$516 @ 50.6¢
Will Zelenskyy post 100-119 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 16.3¢
What percent of U.S. cattle inventory area will be in drought? (week of September 1)Lost
No$25 @ 56.5¢
Will Ulta say "Uncertainty" during earnings call?Lost
No$15 @ 8.2¢
Will CZ post 20-39 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?Won
Yes$35 @ 19.9¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026?Won
No$51 @ 30.0¢
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of August 2026?Won
Yes$0 @ 5.0¢
Will the next Grok model (4.7+) be released on September 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$11 @ 6.2¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Won
No$5 @ 41.0¢
Will the next Grok model (4.6+) debut with a Humanity’s Last Exam score of 35% or higher?Won
Yes$21 @ 51.5¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$17 @ 1.5¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?Won
Yes$122 @ 80.8¢
Will New Mexico have D4 (Exceptional Drought) this week?Won
Yes$151 @ 87.7¢
Will Zelenskyy post 60-79 posts from June 9 to June 16, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 10.4¢
Will any AI model reach 1510 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$132 @ 46.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$1.0k	81.1¢
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena \| WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?	Tech	Yes	$937	55.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$810	51.5¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?	Tech	No	$795	45.4¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$786	90.6¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$741	62.5¢
Will Runway have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?	Tech	No	$683	83.9¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$665	15.9¢
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$617	85.1¢
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$493	58.7¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$493	25.2¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$449	20.8¢
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$448	68.6¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$416	34.5¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $1.50 and $2.00 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$393	82.1¢
Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$382	39.8¢
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30?	Economy	Yes	$374	51.4¢
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$373	14.9¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$362	21.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$346	17.6¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$344	43.4¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$340	75.3¢
Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$324	69.9¢
Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	Tech	Yes	$304	35.0¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$296	29.3¢
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Tech	Yes	$284	43.7¢
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 9, 2026?	Tech	No	$282	86.2¢
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$281	67.9¢
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?	Tech	No	$277	92.0¢
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21?	Tech	Yes	$271	62.3¢

Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$1.0k @ 81.1¢
Will Alibaba be the third-best Code Arena | WebDev AI lab at the end of September 2026?Tech
Yes$937 @ 55.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$810 @ 51.5¢
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Tech
No$795 @ 45.4¢
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$786 @ 90.6¢
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$741 @ 62.5¢
Will Runway have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of September 2026?Tech
No$683 @ 83.9¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$665 @ 15.9¢
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$617 @ 85.1¢
Will Google have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$493 @ 58.7¢
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$493 @ 25.2¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$449 @ 20.8¢
Will any AI model reach 1600 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$448 @ 68.6¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$416 @ 34.5¢
Will the Ornn H100 Index be between $1.50 and $2.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech
No$393 @ 82.1¢
Will AI solve the Hodge Conjecture in 2026?Tech
Yes$382 @ 39.8¢
Will the median home value in Miami be between $1,089,000 and $1,125,000 on September 30?Economy
Yes$374 @ 51.4¢
Will AI solve 2 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Tech
Yes$373 @ 14.9¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index be at least $7.00 on December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$362 @ 21.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$346 @ 17.6¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$344 @ 43.4¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$340 @ 75.3¢
Will OpenAI have the best Image Edit AI at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$324 @ 69.9¢
Will MiniMax have the best Image-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?Tech
Yes$304 @ 35.0¢
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $5.50 (LOW) by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$296 @ 29.3¢
Will the Hodge Conjecture be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Tech
Yes$284 @ 43.7¢
Will the next Meta Muse Spark model be released on October 9, 2026?Tech
No$282 @ 86.2¢
Will Z.ai be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$281 @ 67.9¢
Will the next Sonnet model debut at a score of at least 1510 by December 31, 2026?Tech
No$277 @ 92.0¢
Will Google have the second highest OpenRouter market share the week of September 21?Tech
Yes$271 @ 62.3¢