0x562b…dc09

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x562bc8068347268d9a69b8dd464d00eed0f9dc09
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+6.9pp

ROI

+11%

Win rate

66% @ 59.3¢

Brier

0.188

Resolved

998

Avg size

$82

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	60% (103/171)	+7%	171
Sports	54% (55/101)	+13%	101
Culture	62% (13/21)	-4%	21
Tech	82% (9/11)	+27%	11
Politics	33% (2/6)	-89%	6
Economy	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+27%	1

Other171 bets
Hit rate
60% (103/171)
ROI
+7%
Sports101 bets
Hit rate
54% (55/101)
ROI
+13%
Culture21 bets
Hit rate
62% (13/21)
ROI
-4%
Tech11 bets
Hit rate
82% (9/11)
ROI
+27%
Politics6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-89%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+27%

Track record

58% hit · 183/313

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	No	$98	85.0¢	Lost
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	No	$31	51.0¢	Lost
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?	Yes	$32	53.5¢	Won
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals?	No	$384	85.9¢	Won
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?	No	$542	92.0¢	Lost
Will Luma AI have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?	No	$35	94.5¢	Won
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	No	$157	90.0¢	Lost
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$117	69.4¢	Won
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	No	$89	87.0¢	Won
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	Yes	$166	25.1¢	Lost
Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?	No	$75	29.6¢	Lost
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$1.2k	78.7¢	Won
Will Rare Earths Americas' market cap be between $300M and $400M at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$19	71.0¢	Won
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?	No	$4	3.4¢	Won
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?	Yes	$93	84.0¢	Lost
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?	No	$138	76.9¢	Lost
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?	No	$435	78.3¢	Won
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$356	68.0¢	Lost
Will John Ternus say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 20+ times during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?	No	$61	66.6¢	Won
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$423	31.0¢	Won
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$1.0k	78.2¢	Won
Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	$1	0.7¢	Lost
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$45	79.0¢	Won
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	No	$23	85.9¢	Won
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?	Yes	$12	61.7¢	Lost
Will Philadelphia Union vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?	No	$350	71.0¢	Won
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5	Over	$1	6.0¢	Lost
Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$35	82.0¢	Won
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?	No	$143	62.6¢	Won
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$33	34.9¢	Lost
FDA approves Sanofi's Dupixent?	Yes	$1.5k	82.1¢	Won
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?	No	$2.0k	56.7¢	Won
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February?	Yes	$41	89.5¢	Won
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	$118	86.2¢	Lost
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?	No	$376	36.2¢	Lost
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$789	52.2¢	Lost
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?	No	$3	3.9¢	Lost
Will Jordan Spieth finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson?	No	$17	71.5¢	Lost
FDA approves Camurus' Oclaiz?	No	$192	51.0¢	Won
Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be less than 3m?	Yes	$178	86.8¢	Won
Spurs vs. Pistons	Spurs	$177	48.0¢	Won
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?	No	$358	69.2¢	Won
Will Spain record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$9	88.0¢	Won
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$639	69.2¢	Lost
Will Olivia Rodrigo attend the Met Gala?	No	$22	30.0¢	Won
Will Olivia Rodrigo attend the Met Gala?	Yes	$4	82.0¢	Lost
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?	No	$314	69.7¢	Won
Will Kylian Mbappe score 7+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$72	12.0¢	Lost
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?	No	$162	87.3¢	Won
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$275	53.0¢	Won

Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Lost
No$98 @ 85.0¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Lost
No$31 @ 51.0¢
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion?Won
Yes$32 @ 53.5¢
Will Atlanta Dream win the 2026 WNBA Finals?Won
No$384 @ 85.9¢
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?Lost
No$542 @ 92.0¢
Will Luma AI have the best Text-to-Video AI at the end of October 2026?Won
No$35 @ 94.5¢
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?Lost
No$157 @ 90.0¢
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
No$117 @ 69.4¢
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
No$89 @ 87.0¢
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?Lost
Yes$166 @ 25.1¢
Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?Lost
No$75 @ 29.6¢
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$1.2k @ 78.7¢
Will Rare Earths Americas' market cap be between $300M and $400M at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$19 @ 71.0¢
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?Won
No$4 @ 3.4¢
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?Lost
Yes$93 @ 84.0¢
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?Lost
No$138 @ 76.9¢
Will Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 Women’s French Open?Won
No$435 @ 78.3¢
Will Norway reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$356 @ 68.0¢
Will John Ternus say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" 20+ times during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?Won
No$61 @ 66.6¢
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
No$423 @ 31.0¢
Will Wunmi Mosaku win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
No$1.0k @ 78.2¢
Will Greece advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Lost
No$1 @ 0.7¢
Will Portugal reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$45 @ 79.0¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?Won
No$23 @ 85.9¢
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31?Lost
Yes$12 @ 61.7¢
Will Philadelphia Union vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?Won
No$350 @ 71.0¢
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 222.5Lost
Over$1 @ 6.0¢
Will Come See Me in the Good Light win Best Documentary Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
No$35 @ 82.0¢
Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?Won
No$143 @ 62.6¢
Will Drake officially release Iceman by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$33 @ 34.9¢
FDA approves Sanofi's Dupixent?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 82.1¢
Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?Won
No$2.0k @ 56.7¢
Will Seattle have less than 3 inches of precipitation in February?Won
Yes$41 @ 89.5¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$118 @ 86.2¢
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?Lost
No$376 @ 36.2¢
Will Spain reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$789 @ 52.2¢
Will Reform UK win the most council seat elections in the 2026 United Kingdom local elections?Lost
No$3 @ 3.9¢
Will Jordan Spieth finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 THE CJ CUP Byron Nelson?Lost
No$17 @ 71.5¢
FDA approves Camurus' Oclaiz?Won
No$192 @ 51.0¢
Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be less than 3m?Won
Yes$178 @ 86.8¢
Spurs vs. PistonsWon
Spurs$177 @ 48.0¢
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a successful splashdown?Won
No$358 @ 69.2¢
Will Spain record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$9 @ 88.0¢
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address?Lost
Yes$639 @ 69.2¢
Will Olivia Rodrigo attend the Met Gala?Won
No$22 @ 30.0¢
Will Olivia Rodrigo attend the Met Gala?Lost
Yes$4 @ 82.0¢
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k?Won
No$314 @ 69.7¢
Will Kylian Mbappe score 7+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$72 @ 12.0¢
Will Olivia Dean have a #1 hit in the US in June?Won
No$162 @ 87.3¢
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$275 @ 53.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?	Sports	No	$2.5k	72.0¢
Will Walt Weiss win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Sports	No	$2.4k	74.4¢
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?	Culture	No	$1.3k	51.7¢
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	Sports	No	$899	80.5¢
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?	Sports	No	$599	82.3¢
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?	Sports	No	$542	92.0¢
Will JAY-Z release a new song in 2026?	Culture	Yes	$499	59.2¢
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?	Culture	No	$404	84.0¢
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?	Sports	No	$377	39.3¢
Will Ryan Gosling be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$264	36.8¢
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?	Sports	Yes	$166	25.1¢
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?	Sports	No	$157	90.0¢
Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$153	23.6¢
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?	Culture	Yes	$109	63.0¢
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$108	50.7¢
Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?	Culture	No	$102	96.7¢
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?	Politics	No	$100	90.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$98	85.0¢
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?	Culture	No	$98	26.1¢
Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$68	28.4¢
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?	Sports	No	$67	30.0¢
Will October be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?	Science	Yes	$58	93.2¢
Will Don Kelly win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?	Sports	No	$50	82.0¢
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$50	37.1¢
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$49	21.0¢
Will Jack Harlow have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?	Culture	No	$47	86.3¢
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?	Sports	No	$43	31.0¢
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award?	Sports	No	$37	80.0¢
Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by December 31?	Culture	Yes	$34	56.0¢
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?	Culture	Yes	$31	25.9¢

Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?Sports
No$2.5k @ 72.0¢
Will Walt Weiss win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?Sports
No$2.4k @ 74.4¢
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Culture
No$1.3k @ 51.7¢
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?Sports
No$899 @ 80.5¢
Will Shohei Ohtani win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?Sports
No$599 @ 82.3¢
Will Golden State Valkyries win the 2026 WNBA Finals?Sports
No$542 @ 92.0¢
Will JAY-Z release a new song in 2026?Culture
Yes$499 @ 59.2¢
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?Culture
No$404 @ 84.0¢
Will Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?Sports
No$377 @ 39.3¢
Will Ryan Gosling be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$264 @ 36.8¢
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?Sports
Yes$166 @ 25.1¢
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series?Sports
No$157 @ 90.0¢
Will Tom Cruise be nominated for Best Actor at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$153 @ 23.6¢
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?Culture
Yes$109 @ 63.0¢
Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Tech
Yes$108 @ 50.7¢
Elder Scrolls VI released by December 31?Culture
No$102 @ 96.7¢
US grants license for new nuclear reactor in 2026?Politics
No$100 @ 90.0¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$98 @ 85.0¢
Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?Culture
No$98 @ 26.1¢
Will "Digger" be nominated for Best Picture at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$68 @ 28.4¢
Will Yordan Alvarez win the 2026 American League MVP Award?Sports
No$67 @ 30.0¢
Will October be Melbourne's wettest month of 2026?Science
Yes$58 @ 93.2¢
Will Don Kelly win the 2026 NL Manager of the Year?Sports
No$50 @ 82.0¢
Will 5-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Tech
Yes$50 @ 37.1¢
Will The Odyssey get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$49 @ 21.0¢
Will Jack Harlow have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026?Culture
No$47 @ 86.3¢
Will Kevin McGonigle win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?Sports
No$43 @ 31.0¢
Will Bobby Witt Jr. win the 2026 American League MVP Award?Sports
No$37 @ 80.0¢
Will Lana Del Rey release a new album by December 31?Culture
Yes$34 @ 56.0¢
Will Drake be the top artist for 2026?Culture
Yes$31 @ 25.9¢