0x54fd…4ac3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x54fde20fa60e932fc480071e05695b42caa94ac3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Profitable

Edge

+6.6pp

ROI

+5%

Win rate

71% @ 64.5¢

Brier

0.226

Resolved

387

Avg size

$109

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	67% (37/55)	+1%	55
Sports	100% (7/7)	+34%	7
Economy	67% (2/3)	-16%	3
Business	100% (3/3)	+40%	3
Politics	50% (1/2)	-28%	2
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+25%	1

Other55 bets
Hit rate
67% (37/55)
ROI
+1%
Sports7 bets
Hit rate
100% (7/7)
ROI
+34%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-16%
Business3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+40%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-28%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+25%

Track record

72% hit · 51/71

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$432	81.2¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$263	56.0¢	Lost
Colts vs. Chiefs	Chiefs	$2.4k	65.2¢	Won
Colts vs. Chiefs	Colts	$649	39.4¢	Lost
Will Fervo Energy's market cap be between $7.0B and $8.5B at market close on IPO day?	No	$5	23.0¢	Won
Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$52	19.4¢	Won
Will Odyssey Therapeutics' market cap be less than $0.8B at market close on IPO day?	No	$374	84.6¢	Lost
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$12	60.0¢	Won
Will Odyssey Therapeutics' market cap be between $0.8B and $1.1B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$18	44.0¢	Lost
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$86	15.6¢	Lost
Will IONQ (IONQ) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$2.6k	85.3¢	Won
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.1B and $1.3B at market close on IPO day?	No	$572	65.7¢	Won
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?	No	$142	88.6¢	Won
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close on IPO day?	No	$225	83.3¢	Won
Raiders vs. Chargers	Chargers	$2.5k	66.4¢	Lost
Raiders vs. Chargers	Raiders	$2.4k	55.1¢	Won
Giants vs. Rams	Rams	$2.2k	74.2¢	Won
Will Halliburton (HAL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$38	75.0¢	Won
Will Paramount Skydance (PSKY) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$874	71.7¢	Lost
Will Yesway’s market cap be greater than $1.0B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$284	85.8¢	Won
Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$924	86.1¢	Won
Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$828	58.7¢	Lost
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $25B and $28B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$116	54.0¢	Won
49ers vs. Rams	49ers	$231	35.2¢	Won
49ers vs. Rams	Rams	$1.2k	52.6¢	Lost
Lions vs. Bills	Bills	$1.8k	76.6¢	Won
Will X-Energy’s market cap be between $8B and $9B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$2	4.7¢	Lost
Will Alamar Biosciences’s market cap be greater than $1.3B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$47	38.2¢	Won
Commanders vs. Cowboys	Cowboys	$83	83.0¢	Won
Vikings vs. Bears	Bears	$2.7k	61.8¢	Lost
Will Kailera Therapeutics’s market cap be between $1.8B and $1.9B at market close on IPO day?	No	$161	89.6¢	Won
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$369	82.0¢	Won
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?	Yes	$38	47.1¢	Won
Rams vs. Falcons	Falcons	$829	61.7¢	Won
Rams vs. Falcons	Rams	$695	58.2¢	Lost
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?	Yes	$218	54.0¢	Won
Will Equifax (EFX) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$8	88.0¢	Won
Will Kailera Therapeutics’s market cap be greater than $2.1B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$340	54.2¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$787	86.9¢	Won
Packers vs. Bears	Bears	$584	57.3¢	Won
Packers vs. Bears	Packers	$220	73.0¢	Lost
Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$164	72.6¢	Won
Will Alamar Biosciences’s market cap be between $1.0B and $1.1B at market close on IPO day?	No	$24	70.5¢	Won
Will Intel (INTC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$112	74.3¢	Won
Will SUJA LIFE's market cap be between $0.8B and $1B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$47	42.0¢	Lost
Will X-Energy’s market cap be greater than $9B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$21	20.8¢	Won
Will IonQ (IONQ) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$483	80.8¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$463	65.0¢	Lost
Will Truist Financial (TFC) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$139	57.5¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?	No	$280	80.0¢	Won

Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$432 @ 81.2¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$263 @ 56.0¢
Colts vs. ChiefsWon
Chiefs$2.4k @ 65.2¢
Colts vs. ChiefsLost
Colts$649 @ 39.4¢
Will Fervo Energy's market cap be between $7.0B and $8.5B at market close on IPO day?Won
No$5 @ 23.0¢
Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$52 @ 19.4¢
Will Odyssey Therapeutics' market cap be less than $0.8B at market close on IPO day?Lost
No$374 @ 84.6¢
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$12 @ 60.0¢
Will Odyssey Therapeutics' market cap be between $0.8B and $1.1B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$18 @ 44.0¢
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $40B and $50B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$86 @ 15.6¢
Will IONQ (IONQ) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$2.6k @ 85.3¢
Will Safepoint's market cap be between $1.1B and $1.3B at market close on IPO day?Won
No$572 @ 65.7¢
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw?Won
No$142 @ 88.6¢
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $22B and $25B at market close on IPO day?Won
No$225 @ 83.3¢
Raiders vs. ChargersLost
Chargers$2.5k @ 66.4¢
Raiders vs. ChargersWon
Raiders$2.4k @ 55.1¢
Giants vs. RamsWon
Rams$2.2k @ 74.2¢
Will Halliburton (HAL) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$38 @ 75.0¢
Will Paramount Skydance (PSKY) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$874 @ 71.7¢
Will Yesway’s market cap be greater than $1.0B at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$284 @ 85.8¢
Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$924 @ 86.1¢
Will Coinbase (COIN) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
Yes$828 @ 58.7¢
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be between $25B and $28B at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$116 @ 54.0¢
49ers vs. RamsWon
49ers$231 @ 35.2¢
49ers vs. RamsLost
Rams$1.2k @ 52.6¢
Lions vs. BillsWon
Bills$1.8k @ 76.6¢
Will X-Energy’s market cap be between $8B and $9B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$2 @ 4.7¢
Will Alamar Biosciences’s market cap be greater than $1.3B at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$47 @ 38.2¢
Commanders vs. CowboysWon
Cowboys$83 @ 83.0¢
Vikings vs. BearsLost
Bears$2.7k @ 61.8¢
Will Kailera Therapeutics’s market cap be between $1.8B and $1.9B at market close on IPO day?Won
No$161 @ 89.6¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$369 @ 82.0¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18?Won
Yes$38 @ 47.1¢
Rams vs. FalconsWon
Falcons$829 @ 61.7¢
Rams vs. FalconsLost
Rams$695 @ 58.2¢
Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?Won
Yes$218 @ 54.0¢
Will Equifax (EFX) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$8 @ 88.0¢
Will Kailera Therapeutics’s market cap be greater than $2.1B at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$340 @ 54.2¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$787 @ 86.9¢
Packers vs. BearsWon
Bears$584 @ 57.3¢
Packers vs. BearsLost
Packers$220 @ 73.0¢
Will Blackstone (BX) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$164 @ 72.6¢
Will Alamar Biosciences’s market cap be between $1.0B and $1.1B at market close on IPO day?Won
No$24 @ 70.5¢
Will Intel (INTC) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$112 @ 74.3¢
Will SUJA LIFE's market cap be between $0.8B and $1B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$47 @ 42.0¢
Will X-Energy’s market cap be greater than $9B at market close on IPO day?Won
Yes$21 @ 20.8¢
Will IonQ (IONQ) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$483 @ 80.8¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$463 @ 65.0¢
Will Truist Financial (TFC) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$139 @ 57.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?Won
No$280 @ 80.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.8k	87.8¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.1k	93.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$1.0k	72.5¢
Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?	Business	No	$993	95.5¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by December 31?	Tech	No	$972	79.1¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?	Tech	No	$579	85.8¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?	Tech	No	$549	94.7¢
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?	Tech	No	$496	88.1¢
Rams vs. Broncos	Sports	Rams	$465	56.0¢
Falcons vs. Packers	Sports	Falcons	$450	30.0¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?	Other	No	$288	75.5¢
Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day?	Business	Yes	$240	26.3¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?	Tech	No	$207	94.0¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?	Other	No	$196	88.5¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	No	$180	83.2¢
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $80B and $100B at market close on IPO day?	Tech	No	$166	92.8¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Tech	No	$148	80.5¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?	Other	No	$145	88.8¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?	Tech	Yes	$134	68.1¢
Ravens vs. Cowboys	Sports	Cowboys	$126	42.0¢
Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$121	93.0¢
Canva IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$89	96.0¢
Seahawks vs. Commanders	Sports	Seahawks	$88	73.1¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$70	14.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?	Business	Yes	$38	75.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?	Tech	Yes	$20	8.3¢
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?	Business	Yes	$7	35.6¢
Will SB Energy not IPO before January 2027?	Tech	Yes	$7	17.5¢
Raiders vs. Saints	Sports	Saints	$6	62.0¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?	Tech	No	$5	91.0¢

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?Tech
No$1.8k @ 87.8¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31?Tech
No$1.1k @ 93.0¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Tech
Yes$1.0k @ 72.5¢
Will Oura's market cap be less than $7.5B at market close on IPO day?Business
No$993 @ 95.5¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by December 31?Tech
No$972 @ 79.1¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?Tech
No$579 @ 85.8¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?Tech
No$549 @ 94.7¢
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?Tech
No$496 @ 88.1¢
Rams vs. BroncosSports
Rams$465 @ 56.0¢
Falcons vs. PackersSports
Falcons$450 @ 30.0¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?Other
No$288 @ 75.5¢
Will Oura's market cap be between $17.5B and $20B at market close on IPO day?Business
Yes$240 @ 26.3¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?Tech
No$207 @ 94.0¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?Other
No$196 @ 88.5¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.5T and $1.75T at market close on IPO day?Tech
No$180 @ 83.2¢
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $80B and $100B at market close on IPO day?Tech
No$166 @ 92.8¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Tech
No$148 @ 80.5¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?Other
No$145 @ 88.8¢
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Tech
Yes$134 @ 68.1¢
Ravens vs. CowboysSports
Cowboys$126 @ 42.0¢
Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$121 @ 93.0¢
Canva IPO before 2027?Business
No$89 @ 96.0¢
Seahawks vs. CommandersSports
Seahawks$88 @ 73.1¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.25T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$70 @ 14.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Business
Yes$38 @ 75.0¢
Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.5T and $2.75T at market close on IPO day?Tech
Yes$20 @ 8.3¢
Will Oura's market cap be at least $20B at market close on IPO day?Business
Yes$7 @ 35.6¢
Will SB Energy not IPO before January 2027?Tech
Yes$7 @ 17.5¢
Raiders vs. SaintsSports
Saints$6 @ 62.0¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $60B by December 31?Tech
No$5 @ 91.0¢