0x54fd…4ac3

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x54fde20fa60e932fc480071e05695b42caa94ac3
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.1pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

72% @ 64.6¢

Brier

0.183

Resolved

2129

Avg size

$86

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	65% (206/315)	+9%	315
Sports	70% (47/67)	+12%	67
Business	93% (28/30)	+31%	30
Tech	100% (6/6)	+30%	6
Economy	67% (2/3)	-16%	3
Politics	50% (1/2)	-28%	2
Geopolitics	100% (1/1)	+25%	1

Other315 bets
Hit rate
65% (206/315)
ROI
+9%
Sports67 bets
Hit rate
70% (47/67)
ROI
+12%
Business30 bets
Hit rate
93% (28/30)
ROI
+31%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
100% (6/6)
ROI
+30%
Economy3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-16%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-28%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+25%

Track record

69% hit · 291/424

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Hims & Hers (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$5	51.0¢	Won
Broncos vs. Panthers	Broncos	$2.8k	58.3¢	Won
Packers vs. Patriots	Packers	$507	39.0¢	Won
Cardinals vs. Seahawks	Seahawks	$1.2k	78.0¢	Won
Buccaneers vs. Bears	Bears	$209	73.0¢	Won
Will Apnimed's market cap be between $840M and $960M at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$64	35.6¢	Lost
Will Apnimed's market cap be between $600M and $720M at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$21	30.5¢	Lost
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by August 31?	Yes	$20	40.0¢	Lost
Will Warby Parker (WRBY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$72	44.5¢	Lost
Will Cintas (CTAS) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$41	20.5¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of July?	Yes	$11	0.8¢	Lost
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be less than $16B at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$166	16.1¢	Lost
Will Allstate (ALL) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$23	9.0¢	Lost
Will Sysco (SYY) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$152	91.0¢	Lost
Will General Dynamics (GD) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$2	11.5¢	Lost
Will Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$61	26.4¢	Lost
Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$13	67.0¢	Won
Will Arm (ARM) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$13	67.0¢	Won
Will Datadog (DDOG) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$13	67.0¢	Won
Will Circle (CRCL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$13	67.0¢	Won
Bears vs. Seahawks	Bears	$507	39.0¢	Won
Will Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$67	61.0¢	Won
Eagles vs. Commanders	Commanders	$34	68.0¢	Won
Patriots vs. Dolphins	Patriots	$456	76.0¢	Won
Chiefs vs. Broncos	Chiefs	$11	53.0¢	Lost
Chargers vs. Rams	Rams	$562	73.9¢	Won
Cardinals vs. Cowboys	Cowboys	$450	75.0¢	Lost
Ravens vs. Bills	Bills	$684	68.4¢	Won
Browns vs. Steelers	Steelers	$13	65.0¢	Won
Raiders vs. Jets	Raiders	$9	47.0¢	Won
Falcons vs. Buccaneers	Falcons	$7	45.0¢	Lost
Rams vs. Eagles	Eagles	$1.2k	68.2¢	Lost
Adelaide International: Jaume Munar vs Francisco Cerundolo	Munar	$26	46.0¢	Won
Toledo vs. Louisville	Louisville	$217	83.5¢	Won
Toledo vs. Louisville	Toledo	$2	11.0¢	Lost
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?	Yes	$432	81.2¢	Won
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?	No	$263	56.0¢	Lost
Will "Middle East" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?	No	$3	2.7¢	Won
Will EA say "Acquisition" during earnings call?	No	$406	78.8¢	Won
Will Amplitude (AMPL) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$1.9k	77.1¢	Won
Will StoneX Group (SNEX) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$48	12.2¢	Lost
Colts vs. Chiefs	Chiefs	$2.4k	65.2¢	Won
Colts vs. Chiefs	Colts	$649	39.4¢	Lost
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$69	69.0¢	Won
Brisbane International: Quentin Halys vs Brandon Nakashima	Nakashima	$372	86.9¢	Won
Will EA say "Underperformance" during earnings call?	No	$157	83.0¢	Won
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by December 31?	Yes	$146	72.0¢	Won
Will Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat quarterly earnings?	Yes	$4	86.0¢	Won
Will Fervo Energy's market cap be between $7.0B and $8.5B at market close on IPO day?	No	$5	23.0¢	Won
Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$52	19.4¢	Won

Will Hims & Hers (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$5 @ 51.0¢
Broncos vs. PanthersWon
Broncos$2.8k @ 58.3¢
Packers vs. PatriotsWon
Packers$507 @ 39.0¢
Cardinals vs. SeahawksWon
Seahawks$1.2k @ 78.0¢
Buccaneers vs. BearsWon
Bears$209 @ 73.0¢
Will Apnimed's market cap be between $840M and $960M at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$64 @ 35.6¢
Will Apnimed's market cap be between $600M and $720M at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$21 @ 30.5¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by August 31?Lost
Yes$20 @ 40.0¢
Will Warby Parker (WRBY) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
Yes$72 @ 44.5¢
Will Cintas (CTAS) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$41 @ 20.5¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of July?Lost
Yes$11 @ 0.8¢
Will Bending Spoons' market cap be less than $16B at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$166 @ 16.1¢
Will Allstate (ALL) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$23 @ 9.0¢
Will Sysco (SYY) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
Yes$152 @ 91.0¢
Will General Dynamics (GD) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$2 @ 11.5¢
Will Caterpillar (CAT) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$61 @ 26.4¢
Will Moderna (MRNA) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$13 @ 67.0¢
Will Arm (ARM) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$13 @ 67.0¢
Will Datadog (DDOG) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$13 @ 67.0¢
Will Circle (CRCL) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$13 @ 67.0¢
Bears vs. SeahawksWon
Bears$507 @ 39.0¢
Will Lumentum Holdings Inc (LITE) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$67 @ 61.0¢
Eagles vs. CommandersWon
Commanders$34 @ 68.0¢
Patriots vs. DolphinsWon
Patriots$456 @ 76.0¢
Chiefs vs. BroncosLost
Chiefs$11 @ 53.0¢
Chargers vs. RamsWon
Rams$562 @ 73.9¢
Cardinals vs. CowboysLost
Cowboys$450 @ 75.0¢
Ravens vs. BillsWon
Bills$684 @ 68.4¢
Browns vs. SteelersWon
Steelers$13 @ 65.0¢
Raiders vs. JetsWon
Raiders$9 @ 47.0¢
Falcons vs. BuccaneersLost
Falcons$7 @ 45.0¢
Rams vs. EaglesLost
Eagles$1.2k @ 68.2¢
Adelaide International: Jaume Munar vs Francisco CerundoloWon
Munar$26 @ 46.0¢
Toledo vs. LouisvilleWon
Louisville$217 @ 83.5¢
Toledo vs. LouisvilleLost
Toledo$2 @ 11.0¢
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?Won
Yes$432 @ 81.2¢
Fed Rate Hike by October 2026 Meeting?Lost
No$263 @ 56.0¢
Will "Middle East" be said during the next episode of the All-In Podcast?Won
No$3 @ 2.7¢
Will EA say "Acquisition" during earnings call?Won
No$406 @ 78.8¢
Will Amplitude (AMPL) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 77.1¢
Will StoneX Group (SNEX) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$48 @ 12.2¢
Colts vs. ChiefsWon
Chiefs$2.4k @ 65.2¢
Colts vs. ChiefsLost
Colts$649 @ 39.4¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$69 @ 69.0¢
Brisbane International: Quentin Halys vs Brandon NakashimaWon
Nakashima$372 @ 86.9¢
Will EA say "Underperformance" during earnings call?Won
No$157 @ 83.0¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (LOW) $40B by December 31?Won
Yes$146 @ 72.0¢
Will Cisco Systems (CSCO) beat quarterly earnings?Won
Yes$4 @ 86.0¢
Will Fervo Energy's market cap be between $7.0B and $8.5B at market close on IPO day?Won
No$5 @ 23.0¢
Will Under Armour (UAA) beat quarterly earnings?Won
No$52 @ 19.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Oura not IPO before January 2027?	Business	Yes	$6.8k	90.8¢
Broncos vs. Panthers	Sports	Broncos	$3.4k	58.4¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?	Tech	No	$3.4k	88.9¢
Cardinals vs. Seahawks	Sports	Seahawks	$1.9k	78.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?	Tech	No	$1.1k	91.1¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by December 31?	Tech	No	$972	79.1¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31?	Tech	No	$701	93.0¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?	Tech	No	$579	85.8¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?	Other	No	$566	85.1¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?	Tech	No	$549	94.7¢
Packers vs. Patriots	Sports	Packers	$507	39.0¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by December 31?	Other	No	$354	83.3¢
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?	Tech	Microsoft	$327	59.2¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?	Other	No	$288	75.5¢
Databricks vs Stripe — higher valuation on December 31?	Other	Databricks	$277	68.3¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by December 31?	Other	No	$261	88.4¢
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$233	85.0¢
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?	Tech	No	$212	88.1¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?	Tech	No	$207	94.0¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?	Other	No	$196	88.5¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?	Tech	Yes	$192	81.0¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?	Other	No	$145	88.8¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31?	Other	No	$137	57.0¢
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?	Tech	No	$133	81.4¢
Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	No	$121	93.0¢
Canva IPO before 2027?	Business	No	$89	96.0¢
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?	Business	No	$38	79.3¢
Will Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) beat quarterly earnings?	Business	No	$23	65.4¢
Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings?	Business	No	$8	60.0¢
Will Hims & Hers (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?	Business	No	$5	51.0¢

Will Oura not IPO before January 2027?Business
Yes$6.8k @ 90.8¢
Broncos vs. PanthersSports
Broncos$3.4k @ 58.4¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?Tech
No$3.4k @ 88.9¢
Cardinals vs. SeahawksSports
Seahawks$1.9k @ 78.0¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?Tech
No$1.1k @ 91.1¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $45B by December 31?Tech
No$972 @ 79.1¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $75B by December 31?Tech
No$701 @ 93.0¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $50B by December 31?Tech
No$579 @ 85.8¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $175B by December 31?Other
No$566 @ 85.1¢
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?Tech
No$549 @ 94.7¢
Packers vs. PatriotsSports
Packers$507 @ 39.0¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $150B by December 31?Other
No$354 @ 83.3¢
Anthropic + OpenAI vs Microsoft - higher valuation on December 31?Tech
Microsoft$327 @ 59.2¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31?Other
No$288 @ 75.5¢
Databricks vs Stripe — higher valuation on December 31?Other
Databricks$277 @ 68.3¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (LOW) $70B by December 31?Other
No$261 @ 88.4¢
Will CoreWeave announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$233 @ 85.0¢
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $70B and $80B at market close on IPO day?Tech
No$212 @ 88.1¢
Will Canva's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31?Tech
No$207 @ 94.0¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $17.5B by December 31?Other
No$196 @ 88.5¢
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Tech
Yes$192 @ 81.0¢
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $20B by December 31?Other
No$145 @ 88.8¢
Will Anduril's valuation hit (HIGH) $125B by December 31?Other
No$137 @ 57.0¢
Will SB Energy's market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?Tech
No$133 @ 81.4¢
Will DeepSeek IPO by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
No$121 @ 93.0¢
Canva IPO before 2027?Business
No$89 @ 96.0¢
Will Oura's market cap be between $15B and $17.5B at market close on IPO day?Business
No$38 @ 79.3¢
Will Theravance Biopharma (TBPH) beat quarterly earnings?Business
No$23 @ 65.4¢
Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings?Business
No$8 @ 60.0¢
Will Hims & Hers (HIMS) beat quarterly earnings?Business
No$5 @ 51.0¢