0x5446…18f6

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5446fe5868e4e6da0ab784b005fe423df62218f6
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.2pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

43% @ 38.6¢

Brier

0.169

Resolved

1514

Avg size

$80

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	43% (191/440)	+12%	440
Politics	51% (32/63)	-18%	63
Sports	28% (5/18)	+33%	18
Tech	75% (3/4)	+12%	4
Geopolitics	50% (1/2)	+21%	2
Culture	0% (0/2)	-100%	2
Economy	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other440 bets
Hit rate
43% (191/440)
ROI
+12%
Politics63 bets
Hit rate
51% (32/63)
ROI
-18%
Sports18 bets
Hit rate
28% (5/18)
ROI
+33%
Tech4 bets
Hit rate
75% (3/4)
ROI
+12%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+21%
Culture2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%
Economy1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

44% hit · 232/530

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	Yes	$590	50.8¢	Lost
Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?	No	$6	1.0¢	Lost
Will the April 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?	Yes	$0	3.0¢	Lost
Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass?	No	$95	20.8¢	Won
Will Trump nominate Dan Brouillette for Energy Secretary?	No	$677	80.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "NATO" during Macron presser today?	Yes	$143	65.0¢	Lost
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?	No	$184	38.3¢	Lost
U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025?	No	$211	30.7¢	Lost
U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025?	Yes	$46	64.8¢	Won
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?	Yes	$30	6.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?	Yes	$949	45.0¢	Won
Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?	Yes	$332	26.7¢	Lost
Will Nate Morris be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?	Yes	$11	6.5¢	Lost
Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the CA-17 primary?	No	$4	10.1¢	Won
Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the CA-17 primary?	Yes	$31	62.0¢	Lost
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff?	No	$204	67.9¢	Lost
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff?	Yes	$138	15.5¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	Yes	$129	23.0¢	Lost
Will Lois Frankel be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?	Yes	$106	70.9¢	Won
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?	Yes	$377	25.8¢	Won
Weed rescheduled by June 30?	Yes	$1	14.0¢	Lost
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	No	$111	27.0¢	Lost
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	64.0¢	Won
Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025?	No	$253	83.0¢	Won
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?	No	$44	26.4¢	Lost
Will Yordan Alvarez hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?	Yes	$2	1.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk attend presidential inauguration?	No	$56	5.6¢	Lost
Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 22?	No	$43	45.0¢	Won
Will Trump nominate Tom Cotton for Defense Secretary?	Yes	$28	5.9¢	Lost
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration in 2025?	Yes	$70	11.7¢	Lost
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$93	58.0¢	Won
Carabao Cup: Tottenham vs. Manchester United	Man U	$35	20.2¢	Lost
Will Kamala say "Coconut" in August?	Yes	$2	36.0¢	Lost
Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?	No	$20	8.9¢	Lost
Less than 49 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS?	Yes	$22	18.0¢	Lost
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?	Yes	$264	68.0¢	Won
Will Trump win Wyoming by 50+ points?	Yes	$26	17.3¢	Lost
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	No	$211	74.2¢	Won
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?	Yes	$85	17.0¢	Lost
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority?	Yes	$143	14.0¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?	Yes	$475	67.9¢	Won
Will Trump nominate Ric Grenell for Secretary of State?	No	$198	46.9¢	Won
Kamala Harris wins a solid red state?	Yes	$142	17.8¢	Lost
Shehbaz Sharif out in 2025?	No	$44	87.0¢	Won
Will Nancy Pelosi attend presidential inauguration?	Yes	$592	52.9¢	Lost
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?	No	$368	34.7¢	Lost
Will Tim Walz say "Football" during the debate?	Yes	$1	52.0¢	Won
Will Playboi Carti release new album in 2024?	No	$126	67.3¢	Won
Will Playboi Carti release new album in 2024?	Yes	$337	22.0¢	Lost
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	$271	43.8¢	Won

Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Lost
Yes$590 @ 50.8¢
Will Jack Antonoff attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Lost
No$6 @ 1.0¢
Will the April 2025 unemployment rate be ≥4.6%?Lost
Yes$0 @ 3.0¢
Will the 2025 Taiwanese referendum pass?Won
No$95 @ 20.8¢
Will Trump nominate Dan Brouillette for Energy Secretary?Won
No$677 @ 80.7¢
Will Trump say "NATO" during Macron presser today?Lost
Yes$143 @ 65.0¢
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?Lost
No$184 @ 38.3¢
U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025?Lost
No$211 @ 30.7¢
U.S. enacts stablecoin bill in 2025?Won
Yes$46 @ 64.8¢
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?Lost
Yes$30 @ 6.0¢
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?Won
Yes$949 @ 45.0¢
Kamala flips a 2020 Trump state?Lost
Yes$332 @ 26.7¢
Will Nate Morris be the Republican nominee for Senate in Kentucky?Lost
Yes$11 @ 6.5¢
Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the CA-17 primary?Won
No$4 @ 10.1¢
Will Ethan Agarwal advance from the CA-17 primary?Lost
Yes$31 @ 62.0¢
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff?Lost
No$204 @ 67.9¢
Will Biden pardon Adam Schiff?Won
Yes$138 @ 15.5¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Lost
Yes$129 @ 23.0¢
Will Lois Frankel be the Democratic Nominee for FL-23?Won
Yes$106 @ 70.9¢
Will Biden pardon Liz Cheney?Won
Yes$377 @ 25.8¢
Weed rescheduled by June 30?Lost
Yes$1 @ 14.0¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$111 @ 27.0¢
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$5 @ 64.0¢
Brazilian Supreme Court Minister Alexandre de Moraes be impeached 2025?Won
No$253 @ 83.0¢
Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?Lost
No$44 @ 26.4¢
Will Yordan Alvarez hit the most home runs during the 2026 MLB regular season?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.0¢
Will Elon Musk attend presidential inauguration?Lost
No$56 @ 5.6¢
Will Trump sign 0 executive orders on January 22?Won
No$43 @ 45.0¢
Will Trump nominate Tom Cotton for Defense Secretary?Lost
Yes$28 @ 5.9¢
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leave the Trump administration in 2025?Lost
Yes$70 @ 11.7¢
Will Mandela Barnes win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$93 @ 58.0¢
Carabao Cup: Tottenham vs. Manchester UnitedLost
Man U$35 @ 20.2¢
Will Kamala say "Coconut" in August?Lost
Yes$2 @ 36.0¢
Will Jeremy Moss be the Democratic nominee for MI-11?Lost
No$20 @ 8.9¢
Less than 49 Senators vote to confirm RFK as Secretary of HHS? Lost
Yes$22 @ 18.0¢
Will Greg Hull win the 2026 New Mexico Governor Republican primary election?Won
Yes$264 @ 68.0¢
Will Trump win Wyoming by 50+ points?Lost
Yes$26 @ 17.3¢
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Won
No$211 @ 74.2¢
Will Joe Biden win the 2024 US Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$85 @ 17.0¢
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority?Lost
Yes$143 @ 14.0¢
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025?Won
Yes$475 @ 67.9¢
Will Trump nominate Ric Grenell for Secretary of State?Won
No$198 @ 46.9¢
Kamala Harris wins a solid red state?Lost
Yes$142 @ 17.8¢
Shehbaz Sharif out in 2025?Won
No$44 @ 87.0¢
Will Nancy Pelosi attend presidential inauguration?Lost
Yes$592 @ 52.9¢
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?Lost
No$368 @ 34.7¢
Will Tim Walz say "Football" during the debate?Won
Yes$1 @ 52.0¢
Will Playboi Carti release new album in 2024?Won
No$126 @ 67.3¢
Will Playboi Carti release new album in 2024?Lost
Yes$337 @ 22.0¢
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?Won
Yes$271 @ 43.8¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?	Politics	No	$785	81.4¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$745	65.6¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$633	62.9¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$479	42.4¢
Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat?	Politics	No	$439	92.0¢
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?	Politics	No	$437	82.8¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-02 House seat?	Politics	No	$433	74.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$402	80.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-02 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$392	87.0¢
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?	Crypto	No	$371	78.3¢
Will Waymo launch in Denver, CO by December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$314	87.5¢
Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?	Politics	Yes	$304	74.0¢
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?	Politics	No	$288	41.1¢
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?	Politics	No	$281	85.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$272	34.0¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$266	43.7¢
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$256	48.2¢
Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$252	84.0¢
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?	Politics	No	$241	79.8¢
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$236	79.0¢
Will Digger win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards?	Culture	No	$234	76.5¢
Will the Republican Party win the OR-02 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$232	91.0¢
Will Jordan Love finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing yards?	—	No	$231	86.9¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-03 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$230	92.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$229	64.3¢
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-03 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$221	88.0¢
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$219	32.3¢
Will the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$218	90.0¢
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$215	78.9¢
Will the Republican Party win the WI-07 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$213	85.0¢

Will Tom Homan be arrested before 2027?Politics
No$785 @ 81.4¢
Will Kash Patel leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
Yes$745 @ 65.6¢
OpenAI IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$633 @ 62.9¢
Will Pete Hegseth leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
Yes$479 @ 42.4¢
Will the Republican Party win the CA-06 House seat?Politics
No$439 @ 92.0¢
Sanae Takaichi out as Prime Minister of Japan in 2026?Politics
No$437 @ 82.8¢
Will the Democratic Party win the NY-02 House seat?Politics
No$433 @ 74.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the NY-02 House seat?Politics
Yes$402 @ 80.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the GA-02 House seat?Politics
Yes$392 @ 87.0¢
Will Fomo launch a token by December 31 2026?Crypto
No$371 @ 78.3¢
Will Waymo launch in Denver, CO by December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$314 @ 87.5¢
Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election?Politics
Yes$304 @ 74.0¢
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?Politics
No$288 @ 41.1¢
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?Politics
No$281 @ 85.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$272 @ 34.0¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$266 @ 43.7¢
Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
Yes$256 @ 48.2¢
Will the Republican Party win the NE-01 House seat?Politics
Yes$252 @ 84.0¢
Will Trump pardon Martin Shkreli before 2027?Politics
No$241 @ 79.8¢
Will the Republican Party win the NC-13 House seat?Politics
Yes$236 @ 79.0¢
Will Digger win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 99th Academy Awards?Culture
No$234 @ 76.5¢
Will the Republican Party win the OR-02 House seat?Politics
Yes$232 @ 91.0¢
Will Jordan Love finish the 2026-27 NFL regular season with the most passing yards?—
No$231 @ 86.9¢
Will the Democratic Party win the MN-03 House seat?Politics
Yes$230 @ 92.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the NY-21 House seat?Politics
Yes$229 @ 64.3¢
Will the Democratic Party win the KS-03 House seat?Politics
Yes$221 @ 88.0¢
Will Susie Wiles leave the Trump administration before 2027?Politics
Yes$219 @ 32.3¢
Will the Republican Party win the TN-04 House seat?Politics
Yes$218 @ 90.0¢
Will OpenSea launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$215 @ 78.9¢
Will the Republican Party win the WI-07 House seat?Politics
Yes$213 @ 85.0¢