0x5421…12e8

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x54214017e913e03e9e038b868668c132049612e8
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+28.8pp

ROI

+60%

Win rate

79% @ 50.4¢

Brier

0.196

Resolved

Avg size

$87

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Science	81% (13/16)	+5%	16
Politics	80% (4/5)	+104%	5
Other	67% (2/3)	-4%	3
Geopolitics	50% (1/2)	+38%	2
Tech	100% (1/1)	+45%	1

Science16 bets
Hit rate
81% (13/16)
ROI
+5%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+104%
Other3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
-4%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+38%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+45%

Track record

78% hit · 21/27

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?	Yes	$872	69.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 29?	No	$7	70.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 29?	No	$15	77.0¢	Won
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$1.9k	65.0¢	Won
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?	No	$545	54.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 30?	No	$6	81.0¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?	No	$638	45.6¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 30?	No	$4	78.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?	No	$4	71.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 30?	No	$7	74.0¢	Won
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	Yes	$380	1.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 1?	No	$9	46.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 30?	No	$8	79.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 30?	No	$17	83.0¢	Won
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 29?	No	$17	85.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	Yes	$72	12.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 1?	No	$8	5.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on September 30?	No	$4	79.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?	No	$1.3k	34.4¢	Won
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?	No	$907	51.2¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 30?	No	$9	86.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 1?	No	$16	78.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?	No	$280	70.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 30?	No	$17	87.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 29?	No	$18	88.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 1?	No	$15	77.0¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on October 1?	No	$4	86.0¢	Won

Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of July 2026?Won
Yes$872 @ 69.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 29?Won
No$7 @ 70.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 23°C on September 29?Won
No$15 @ 77.0¢
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 65.0¢
US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?Won
No$545 @ 54.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 30?Won
No$6 @ 81.0¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Lost
No$638 @ 45.6¢
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 34°C on September 30?Won
No$4 @ 78.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 10, 2026?Won
No$4 @ 71.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on September 30?Won
No$7 @ 74.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$380 @ 1.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on October 1?Lost
No$9 @ 46.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on September 30?Lost
No$8 @ 79.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on September 30?Won
No$17 @ 83.0¢
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on September 29?Won
No$17 @ 85.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Lost
Yes$72 @ 12.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 22°C on October 1?Lost
No$8 @ 5.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on September 30?Won
No$4 @ 79.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?Won
No$1.3k @ 34.4¢
Iran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?Won
No$907 @ 51.2¢
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on September 30?Won
No$9 @ 86.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on October 1?Won
No$16 @ 78.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?Won
No$280 @ 70.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on September 30?Won
No$17 @ 87.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C on September 29?Won
No$18 @ 88.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on October 1?Won
No$15 @ 77.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on October 1?Won
No$4 @ 86.0¢

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