0x5415…2a6e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5415c298dde8c84f4ba726d36b411df6e9a72a6e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.0pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

57% @ 48.3¢

Brier

0.180

Resolved

1484

Avg size

$45

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	60% (262/440)	+18%	440
Politics	67% (31/46)	-1%	46
Sports	48% (12/25)	+32%	25
Tech	50% (4/8)	-6%	8
Culture	80% (4/5)	+44%	5
Crypto	50% (1/2)	+15%	2

Other440 bets
Hit rate
60% (262/440)
ROI
+18%
Politics46 bets
Hit rate
67% (31/46)
ROI
-1%
Sports25 bets
Hit rate
48% (12/25)
ROI
+32%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
50% (4/8)
ROI
-6%
Culture5 bets
Hit rate
80% (4/5)
ROI
+44%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+15%

Track record

60% hit · 314/526

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump say "Fake News" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	Yes	$32	93.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Data Center" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	Yes	$56	56.0¢	Won
Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?	No	$10	9.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1?	No	$114	70.5¢	Won
Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 6)	Yes	$7	70.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Pig" during Wisconsin events?	No	$16	78.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Crazy" or "Stupid" during his announcement on healthcare?	No	$9	4.7¢	Lost
Will Warsh say "Stable" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?	No	$40	60.4¢	Won
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$49	59.4¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?	Yes	$671	47.3¢	Won
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?	Yes	$51	73.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?	Yes	$43	43.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17?	No	$18	21.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "Transgender" at The Villages on May 1?	No	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Football" during Tele-Rallies?	Yes	$36	59.9¢	Won
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event?	Yes	$70	70.0¢	Won
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30?	Yes	$96	60.5¢	Won
Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast?	No	$32	6.9¢	Lost
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$21	21.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?	No	$146	23.6¢	Lost
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$20	20.0¢	Lost
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?	Yes	$390	63.8¢	Lost
Will the announcers say "No Good" during the Falcons vs Packers game?	Yes	$0	30.0¢	Lost
Will the announcers say "No Good" during the Steelers vs Browns game?	Yes	$15	31.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's latest video get 20–22 million views on day 1?	Yes	$26	58.0¢	Lost
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?	No	$24	60.0¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?	Yes	$26	24.0¢	Lost
Will Bernie Sanders say "One Percent" or "One Percenter" 3+ times in Michigan?	Yes	$46	78.4¢	Won
Will the announcers say "Goal" 60+ times during the Switzerland vs Colombia FIFA World Cup Match?	Yes	$2	31.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Ebola" or "COVID" during Cabinet meeting?	No	$38	80.0¢	Won
Will "Dude" be said 10+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 1)	No	$16	24.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast hit 109.5 billion views by January 31?	Yes	$19	72.4¢	Won
Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" or "Subscribers" during his next video?	Yes	$260	69.0¢	Won
Over $1M committed to the Foresee public sale?	No	$205	68.0¢	Won
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)	Yes	$63	83.0¢	Lost
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$19	77.2¢	Won
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	No	$61	32.0¢	Won
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?	Yes	$472	69.9¢	Lost
Will Warsh say "Independent" or "Independence" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?	No	$8	20.0¢	Won
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?	Yes	$157	4.9¢	Lost
Will MrBeast hit 116 billion views by March 31?	Yes	$312	43.8¢	Won
Will Warsh say "Trump" during swearing-in?	No	$3	46.0¢	Won
Will the announcers say "Roughing The Passer" during the Ravens vs Cowboys game?	Yes	$76	22.3¢	Won
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?	No	$263	77.4¢	Won
Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?	Yes	$139	84.6¢	Won
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5?	Yes	$84	42.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hell" during his Midterm Rally in Alabama?	Yes	$18	89.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 33 and 34 million views on day 1?	Yes	$44	35.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "Beautiful" 2+ times during his Ribbon Cutting Ceremony?	No	$12	40.0¢	Won
Will the fight go the distance?	Yes	$24	24.0¢	Lost

Will Trump say "Fake News" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?Won
Yes$32 @ 93.0¢
Will Trump say "Data Center" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?Won
Yes$56 @ 56.0¢
Will Tim Cook say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on June 8th?Lost
No$10 @ 9.6¢
Will Trump say "China" at The Villages on May 1?Won
No$114 @ 70.5¢
Will "Fuck" or "Fucking" be said 10+ times during the first episode of the Joe Rogan Experience of the week? (April 6)Won
Yes$7 @ 70.0¢
Will Trump say "Pig" during Wisconsin events?Won
No$16 @ 78.0¢
Will Trump say "Crazy" or "Stupid" during his announcement on healthcare?Lost
No$9 @ 4.7¢
Will Warsh say "Stable" 5+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Won
No$40 @ 60.4¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$49 @ 59.4¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 90 and 100 million views on week 1?Won
Yes$671 @ 47.3¢
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?Won
Yes$51 @ 73.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$43 @ 43.0¢
Will Trump say "Charlie" or "Kirk" 5+ times during TPUSA events on April 17?Won
No$18 @ 21.7¢
Will Trump say "Transgender" at The Villages on May 1?Lost
No$1 @ 1.0¢
Will Trump say "Football" during Tele-Rallies?Won
Yes$36 @ 59.9¢
Will Trump say "Kevin" or "Warsh" during Coast Guard event?Won
Yes$70 @ 70.0¢
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30?Won
Yes$96 @ 60.5¢
Will "Canada" or "Canadian" be said on the Lemonade Stand Podcast?Lost
No$32 @ 6.9¢
Will Andy Byron rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$21 @ 21.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?Lost
No$146 @ 23.6¢
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?Lost
Yes$390 @ 63.8¢
Will the announcers say "No Good" during the Falcons vs Packers game?Lost
Yes$0 @ 30.0¢
Will the announcers say "No Good" during the Steelers vs Browns game?Won
Yes$15 @ 31.0¢
Will MrBeast's latest video get 20–22 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$26 @ 58.0¢
Will Diplo run the 5k in under 21 minutes?Lost
No$24 @ 60.0¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?Lost
Yes$26 @ 24.0¢
Will Bernie Sanders say "One Percent" or "One Percenter" 3+ times in Michigan?Won
Yes$46 @ 78.4¢
Will the announcers say "Goal" 60+ times during the Switzerland vs Colombia FIFA World Cup Match?Won
Yes$2 @ 31.0¢
Will Trump say "Ebola" or "COVID" during Cabinet meeting?Won
No$38 @ 80.0¢
Will "Dude" be said 10+ times on the first Joe Rogan Experience episode of the week? (March 1)Lost
No$16 @ 24.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 109.5 billion views by January 31?Won
Yes$19 @ 72.4¢
Will MrBeast say "Subscribe" or "Subscribers" during his next video?Won
Yes$260 @ 69.0¢
Over $1M committed to the Foresee public sale?Won
No$205 @ 68.0¢
Will "Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua" be the top global Netflix show this week? (December 23, 2025)Lost
Yes$63 @ 83.0¢
Will there be 5+ missed penalties during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$19 @ 77.2¢
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Won
No$61 @ 32.0¢
Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
Yes$472 @ 69.9¢
Will Warsh say "Independent" or "Independence" during Jackson Hole speech on August 28?Won
No$8 @ 20.0¢
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?Lost
Yes$157 @ 4.9¢
Will MrBeast hit 116 billion views by March 31?Won
Yes$312 @ 43.8¢
Will Warsh say "Trump" during swearing-in?Won
No$3 @ 46.0¢
Will the announcers say "Roughing The Passer" during the Ravens vs Cowboys game?Won
Yes$76 @ 22.3¢
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?Won
No$263 @ 77.4¢
Will Powell say "Unemployment" or "Employment" 25+ times during October press conference?Won
Yes$139 @ 84.6¢
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5?Won
Yes$84 @ 42.0¢
Will Trump say "Hell" during his Midterm Rally in Alabama?Won
Yes$18 @ 89.0¢
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 33 and 34 million views on day 1?Won
Yes$44 @ 35.7¢
Will Trump say "Beautiful" 2+ times during his Ribbon Cutting Ceremony?Won
No$12 @ 40.0¢
Will the fight go the distance?Lost
Yes$24 @ 24.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$15.0k	50.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	No	$15.0k	50.0¢
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?	Sports	Yes	$2.9k	80.3¢
Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026?	Culture	No	$262	78.6¢
Will Trump say "No Tax on Tips" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	Politics	Yes	$138	93.0¢
Will Trump say "Data Center" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	Politics	Yes	$56	56.0¢
Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026?	Sports	No	$39	88.8¢
Will Trump say "Fake News" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	Politics	Yes	$32	93.0¢
Will the announcers say "Offside" or "Offsides" during the Lions vs Panthers game?	Sports	No	$25	24.5¢
Will the announcers say "Wild" during the Lions vs Panthers game?	Sports	No	$20	19.5¢
Will the announcers say "Trade" or "Traded" during the Chiefs vs Raiders game?	Sports	No	$15	30.0¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?	Politics	Yes	$13	56.2¢
Will the announcers say "Inch" or "Inches" during the Lions vs Panthers game?	Sports	No	$11	18.5¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 25, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	50.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 11, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	50.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 3, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	50.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 8, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$10	50.0¢
Will the announcers say "What a Catch" during the Lions vs Panthers game?	Sports	Yes	$7	14.0¢
Will the announcers say "Turf" during the Lions vs Panthers game?	Sports	No	$6	48.0¢
Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by September 30?	Politics	No	$2	43.0¢

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$15.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
No$15.0k @ 50.0¢
Will A'ja Wilson win the 2026 WNBA MVP award?Sports
Yes$2.9k @ 80.3¢
Nara Smith confirmed pregnant in 2026?Culture
No$262 @ 78.6¢
Will Trump say "No Tax on Tips" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?Politics
Yes$138 @ 93.0¢
Will Trump say "Data Center" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?Politics
Yes$56 @ 56.0¢
Will Lionel Messi announce his retirement in 2026?Sports
No$39 @ 88.8¢
Will Trump say "Fake News" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?Politics
Yes$32 @ 93.0¢
Will the announcers say "Offside" or "Offsides" during the Lions vs Panthers game?Sports
No$25 @ 24.5¢
Will the announcers say "Wild" during the Lions vs Panthers game?Sports
No$20 @ 19.5¢
Will the announcers say "Trade" or "Traded" during the Chiefs vs Raiders game?Sports
No$15 @ 30.0¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 10+ times during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?Politics
Yes$13 @ 56.2¢
Will the announcers say "Inch" or "Inches" during the Lions vs Panthers game?Sports
No$11 @ 18.5¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 25, 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 50.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 11, 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 50.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 3, 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 50.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on October 8, 2026?Politics
Yes$10 @ 50.0¢
Will the announcers say "What a Catch" during the Lions vs Panthers game?Sports
Yes$7 @ 14.0¢
Will the announcers say "Turf" during the Lions vs Panthers game?Sports
No$6 @ 48.0¢
Will Trump raise tariffs on Canada by September 30?Politics
No$2 @ 43.0¢