0x53e5…6177

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x53e55bc7cb3d67ad177c023ce891ad076a9d6177
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

-1.9pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

34% @ 35.5¢

Brier

0.167

Resolved

5703

Avg size

$545

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	47% (42/89)	+1%	89
Politics	36% (27/74)	+33%	74
Geopolitics	35% (7/20)	-26%	20
Sports	0% (0/5)	-100%	5
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+348%	1

Other89 bets
Hit rate
47% (42/89)
ROI
+1%
Politics74 bets
Hit rate
36% (27/74)
ROI
+33%
Geopolitics20 bets
Hit rate
35% (7/20)
ROI
-26%
Sports5 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/5)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+348%

Track record

41% hit · 77/189

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$439	43.0¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$6.0k	61.8¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$14.4k	39.2¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$27.6k	85.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	No	$4.8k	85.4¢	Won
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	No	$5.5k	36.0¢	Lost
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?	Yes	$3.8k	28.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$56.5k	79.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$75.8k	20.3¢	Lost
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?	Yes	$2.1k	81.0¢	Won
Will England win on 2026-07-11?	No	$7.2k	47.8¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	Yes	$9.5k	7.0¢	Lost
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?	Yes	$17.9k	47.2¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	No	$14.8k	80.0¢	Lost
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?	Yes	$548	23.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	Yes	$10.7k	89.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$4.8k	78.0¢	Won
Cowboys vs. Giants	Giants	$7.8k	39.0¢	Won
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?	Yes	$2.4k	73.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$555	2.8¢	Lost
Will Janet Mills be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?	Yes	$10	1.7¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$20.1k	25.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	No	$110.4k	81.5¢	Won
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?	Yes	$2.4k	13.3¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$12.5k	15.6¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$26.3k	73.5¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.9k	24.8¢	Lost
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?	Yes	$19.4k	35.9¢	Lost
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?	No	$5.8k	46.0¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	Yes	$4.1k	24.0¢	Lost
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	Yes	$4.5k	18.4¢	Lost
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$35.3k	84.8¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.1k	1.4¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?	No	$187	1.7¢	Lost
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?	No	$388	1.4¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$164.6k	9.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 14?	Yes	$14.5k	13.4¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?	Yes	$163	35.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$135	12.3¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$13.7k	6.9¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$12.3k	69.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$13.3k	22.3¢	Won
Giants vs. Rams	Giants	$8.1k	27.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	No	$14.4k	71.3¢	Won
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026?	No	$1	9.2¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$10.4k	20.8¢	Lost
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Yes	$9.5k	12.4¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$5.8k	80.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$15.2k	11.1¢	Lost
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?	No	$24.3k	77.0¢	Lost

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$439 @ 43.0¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$6.0k @ 61.8¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$14.4k @ 39.2¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
No$27.6k @ 85.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Won
No$4.8k @ 85.4¢
Will France win on 2026-06-26?Lost
No$5.5k @ 36.0¢
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31?Lost
Yes$3.8k @ 28.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$56.5k @ 79.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$75.8k @ 20.3¢
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026?Won
Yes$2.1k @ 81.0¢
Will England win on 2026-07-11?Won
No$7.2k @ 47.8¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Lost
Yes$9.5k @ 7.0¢
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30?Lost
Yes$17.9k @ 47.2¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Lost
No$14.8k @ 80.0¢
Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31?Won
Yes$548 @ 23.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Won
Yes$10.7k @ 89.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$4.8k @ 78.0¢
Cowboys vs. GiantsWon
Giants$7.8k @ 39.0¢
Will Graham Platner drop out by July 10?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 73.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$555 @ 2.8¢
Will Janet Mills be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$20.1k @ 25.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Won
No$110.4k @ 81.5¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?Lost
Yes$2.4k @ 13.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$12.5k @ 15.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$26.3k @ 73.5¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$3.9k @ 24.8¢
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?Lost
Yes$19.4k @ 35.9¢
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?Won
No$5.8k @ 46.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Lost
Yes$4.1k @ 24.0¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$4.5k @ 18.4¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$35.3k @ 84.8¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1.1k @ 1.4¢
Will Trump say "Peng" during events with Xi Jinping?Lost
No$187 @ 1.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?Lost
No$388 @ 1.4¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$164.6k @ 9.0¢
US forces enter Iran by March 14?Lost
Yes$14.5k @ 13.4¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?Lost
Yes$163 @ 35.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$135 @ 12.3¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$13.7k @ 6.9¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$12.3k @ 69.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$13.3k @ 22.3¢
Giants vs. RamsLost
Giants$8.1k @ 27.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Won
No$14.4k @ 71.3¢
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in May 2026?Lost
No$1 @ 9.2¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$10.4k @ 20.8¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30?Lost
Yes$9.5k @ 12.4¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$5.8k @ 80.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$15.2k @ 11.1¢
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?Lost
No$24.3k @ 77.0¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$43.5k	87.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$35.1k	22.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$32.8k	44.5¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$29.2k	82.6¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$28.0k	31.6¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$27.7k	48.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$17.1k	11.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$16.2k	83.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$14.6k	76.0¢
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$11.9k	1.3¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D House	Politics	Yes	$10.9k	41.0¢
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$10.7k	0.7¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$6.4k	49.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$6.0k	34.0¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$5.5k	5.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$4.6k	36.3¢
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?	Politics	No	$3.5k	75.6¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$1.1k	8.9¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$386	83.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	No	$95	25.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$23	41.0¢
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$23	26.2¢
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship?	Sports	Yes	$21	0.8¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?	Politics	No	$5	62.6¢

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$43.5k @ 87.0¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
Yes$35.1k @ 22.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$32.8k @ 44.5¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$29.2k @ 82.6¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$28.0k @ 31.6¢
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$27.7k @ 48.2¢
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?Politics
Yes$17.1k @ 11.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$16.2k @ 83.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?Politics
No$14.6k @ 76.0¢
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$11.9k @ 1.3¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HousePolitics
Yes$10.9k @ 41.0¢
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$10.7k @ 0.7¢
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$6.4k @ 49.8¢
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$6.0k @ 34.0¢
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$5.5k @ 5.1¢
Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$4.6k @ 36.3¢
Will Trump say "Ammunition" this week?Politics
No$3.5k @ 75.6¢
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?Politics
Yes$1.1k @ 8.9¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$386 @ 83.1¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
No$95 @ 25.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$23 @ 41.0¢
US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?Politics
Yes$23 @ 26.2¢
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship?Sports
Yes$21 @ 0.8¢
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?Politics
No$5 @ 62.6¢