0x529d…6381

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x529d3986c62df484bf34400f655432c5703d6381
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+2.7pp

ROI

+9%

Win rate

44% @ 41.6¢

Brier

0.136

Resolved

1910

Avg size

$26

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	47% (172/365)	+6%	365
Politics	45% (23/51)	+7%	51
Tech	51% (23/45)	+17%	45
Sports	47% (14/30)	+66%	30
Culture	40% (4/10)	-18%	10
Geopolitics	67% (4/6)	+8%	6
Business	100% (2/2)	+148%	2
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+20%	1

Other365 bets
Hit rate
47% (172/365)
ROI
+6%
Politics51 bets
Hit rate
45% (23/51)
ROI
+7%
Tech45 bets
Hit rate
51% (23/45)
ROI
+17%
Sports30 bets
Hit rate
47% (14/30)
ROI
+66%
Culture10 bets
Hit rate
40% (4/10)
ROI
-18%
Geopolitics6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+8%
Business2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+148%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+20%

Track record

48% hit · 243/510

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?	No	$120	80.2¢	Won
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?	Yes	$2	23.0¢	Lost
GPT ads by December 31?	No	$100	86.8¢	Won
Canada recession before 2027?	No	$60	48.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Kamala" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?	Yes	$25	51.0¢	Lost
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	No	$16	1.9¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3?	Yes	$26	66.0¢	Lost
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?	Yes	$36	72.7¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	No	$20	31.0¢	Lost
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	No	$33	33.0¢	Lost
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?	Yes	$3	27.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?	Yes	$20	5.0¢	Lost
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?	No	$50	25.0¢	Lost
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?	Yes	$21	7.0¢	Lost
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?	Yes	$20	10.0¢	Lost
Will "508 meters" be said during the Taipei 101 climb?	Yes	$28	79.4¢	Lost
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?	No	$100	6.0¢	Lost
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?	Yes	$451	69.7¢	Won
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$140	70.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?	Yes	$42	36.3¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?	No	$3	3.0¢	Lost
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$126	84.0¢	Won
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?	Yes	$50	53.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?	Yes	$3	7.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?	No	$757	81.8¢	Won
Another GTA VI trailer released by October 31?	Yes	$1.4k	59.5¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$89	12.7¢	Lost
Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?	Yes	$34	18.3¢	Lost
Clavicular charged by Jan 31?	Yes	$108	36.0¢	Lost
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?	Yes	$27	27.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?	Yes	$15	29.0¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?	No	$25	51.9¢	Lost
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Yes	$576	63.9¢	Won
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$146	73.0¢	Won
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k?	Yes	$38	81.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$25	8.5¢	Lost
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?	Yes	$1.2k	77.8¢	Won
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?	No	$154	77.0¢	Won
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?	Yes	$102	34.0¢	Lost
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?	Yes	$32	32.0¢	Lost
Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 12000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?	Yes	$67	39.4¢	Lost
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?	Yes	$61	76.9¢	Won
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?	No	$64	33.1¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?	Yes	$11	0.9¢	Lost
Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be less than 3m?	No	$60	10.0¢	Lost
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?	No	$89	89.0¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Yes	$454	34.9¢	Lost
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the first round of the French Socialist primary?	Yes	$252	84.0¢	Won
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?	Yes	$300	35.1¢	Lost
Will coinco98 win the Genesis Cup?	Yes	$5	2.8¢	Lost

Will Turkey strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$120 @ 80.2¢
Will Paraguay vs. France end in a draw?Lost
Yes$2 @ 23.0¢
GPT ads by December 31?Won
No$100 @ 86.8¢
Canada recession before 2027?Lost
No$60 @ 48.0¢
Will Trump say "Kamala" during "60 Minutes" on November 2?Lost
Yes$25 @ 51.0¢
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Lost
No$16 @ 1.9¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 3?Lost
Yes$26 @ 66.0¢
Will Rodri join Real Madrid?Lost
Yes$36 @ 72.7¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Lost
No$20 @ 31.0¢
Will France win on 2026-06-16?Lost
No$33 @ 33.0¢
Will Trump admin release any more Epstein related files by January 24?Lost
Yes$3 @ 27.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15?Lost
Yes$20 @ 5.0¢
Will James Talarico and Ken Paxton be the candidates for the Texas Senate Election?Lost
No$50 @ 25.0¢
Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?Lost
Yes$21 @ 7.0¢
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June?Lost
Yes$20 @ 10.0¢
Will "508 meters" be said during the Taipei 101 climb?Lost
Yes$28 @ 79.4¢
Will Logan Paul’s PSA 10 Pokémon Illustrator Sale Price be over $4 million?Lost
No$100 @ 6.0¢
SpaceX and xAI merger officially announced by June 30?Won
Yes$451 @ 69.7¢
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$140 @ 70.0¢
Will MrBeast's million-dollar puzzle be solved by February 15?Lost
Yes$42 @ 36.3¢
Will the next Claude Opus 4.8 model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score below 1480?Lost
No$3 @ 3.0¢
Internet Access restored in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$126 @ 84.0¢
S&P 500 all time high by December 31?Won
Yes$50 @ 53.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 7.0¢
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $STAR?Won
No$757 @ 81.8¢
Another GTA VI trailer released by October 31?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 59.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$89 @ 12.7¢
Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?Lost
Yes$34 @ 18.3¢
Clavicular charged by Jan 31?Lost
Yes$108 @ 36.0¢
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?Lost
Yes$27 @ 27.0¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by April 14?Lost
Yes$15 @ 29.0¢
Will Trump talk to Emmanuel Macron in January?Lost
No$25 @ 51.9¢
Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Won
Yes$576 @ 63.9¢
Will 9+ matches go to extra time during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$146 @ 73.0¢
Will 'BULLY' - Ye debut week album sales be less than 300k?Won
Yes$38 @ 81.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$25 @ 8.5¢
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy explode?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 77.8¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st?Won
No$154 @ 77.0¢
Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 40 and 60 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$102 @ 34.0¢
Will Fabiano Caruana win the 2026 FIDE Candidates Tournament?Lost
Yes$32 @ 32.0¢
Will Figure's humanoid robot push at least 12000 packages during the official Figure livestream before the 8:00:00 time mark?Lost
Yes$67 @ 39.4¢
Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 31?Won
Yes$61 @ 76.9¢
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?Lost
No$64 @ 33.1¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2?Lost
Yes$11 @ 0.9¢
Will 'Arirang' - BTS debut week album sales be less than 3m?Lost
No$60 @ 10.0¢
Will Iran strike Turkey in March?Won
No$89 @ 89.0¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Lost
Yes$454 @ 34.9¢
Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the first round of the French Socialist primary?Won
Yes$252 @ 84.0¢
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election?Lost
Yes$300 @ 35.1¢
Will coinco98 win the Genesis Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$2.9k	89.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$820	82.0¢
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$548	91.4¢
GTA VI released by November 30?	Culture	Yes	$491	95.3¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$486	44.2¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$455	91.0¢
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	No	$379	72.5¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?	Politics	Yes	$363	6.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$354	35.4¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$350	87.5¢
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$319	53.2¢
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?	Politics	Yes	$290	72.5¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Tech	No	$285	95.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?	Tech	No	$261	87.0¢
2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête?	Politics	Zemmour	$245	79.9¢
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$202	57.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$188	18.8¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$172	86.0¢
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?	Politics	No	$170	85.0¢
Will Bryan Johnson dunk before 2027?	Sports	Yes	$157	19.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$153	17.0¢
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$146	1.5¢
Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?	Tech	Yes	$138	13.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$132	11.0¢
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?	Tech	No	$126	82.4¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$120	10.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$105	15.0¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$104	34.7¢
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$100	12.0¢
Will Chuck Norris be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?	Tech	Yes	$97	4.4¢

Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$2.9k @ 89.4¢
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$820 @ 82.0¢
Kim Jong Un out as Supreme Leader of North Korea by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$548 @ 91.4¢
GTA VI released by November 30?Culture
Yes$491 @ 95.3¢
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$486 @ 44.2¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$455 @ 91.0¢
Will François Hollande be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
No$379 @ 72.5¢
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Politics
Yes$363 @ 6.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$354 @ 35.4¢
Anthropic IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$350 @ 87.5¢
Will Bruno Retailleau be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$319 @ 53.2¢
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?Politics
Yes$290 @ 72.5¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?Tech
No$285 @ 95.0¢
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Tech
No$261 @ 87.0¢
2027 French Presidential Election: Knafo or Zemmour for Reconquête?Politics
Zemmour$245 @ 79.9¢
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$202 @ 57.7¢
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$188 @ 18.8¢
Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$172 @ 86.0¢
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?Politics
No$170 @ 85.0¢
Will Bryan Johnson dunk before 2027?Sports
Yes$157 @ 19.7¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$153 @ 17.0¢
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$146 @ 1.5¢
Will the Yang-Mills existence and mass gap problem be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?Tech
Yes$138 @ 13.3¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$132 @ 11.0¢
Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?Tech
No$126 @ 82.4¢
Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$120 @ 10.0¢
Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$105 @ 15.0¢
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the second-most votes in the first round of the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$104 @ 34.7¢
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Politics
Yes$100 @ 12.0¢
Will Chuck Norris be the #1 searched passing on Google this year?Tech
Yes$97 @ 4.4¢