0x5235…c04a

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5235578efe24555b0c98e7dc10a902b09089c04a
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+8.3pp

ROI

+25%

Win rate

42% @ 33.4¢

Brier

0.121

Resolved

6089

Avg size

$128

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	29% (65/223)	-4%	223
Politics	44% (12/27)	+68%	27
Crypto	43% (6/14)	-9%	14
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+36%	2
Economy	50% (1/2)	-18%	2
Tech	100% (1/1)	+809%	1
Sports	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Other223 bets
Hit rate
29% (65/223)
ROI
-4%
Politics27 bets
Hit rate
44% (12/27)
ROI
+68%
Crypto14 bets
Hit rate
43% (6/14)
ROI
-9%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+36%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-18%
Tech1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+809%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

32% hit · 87/270

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Jensen Huang attend the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$9	2.9¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November?	Yes	$1	2.6¢	Lost
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025	No	$45	15.0¢	Lost
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November?	Yes	$365	5.9¢	Lost
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?	No	$175	13.0¢	Lost
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?	Yes	$9	3.3¢	Lost
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	No	$4	26.0¢	Won
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Yes	$720	20.5¢	Lost
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?	No	$173	64.6¢	Won
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$1.4k	40.8¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in December?	Yes	$90	36.0¢	Won
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?	No	$2	7.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?	No	$5.8k	87.8¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?	Yes	$306	8.6¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?	Yes	$12	4.5¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31?	Yes	$807	10.3¢	Lost
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?	No	$141	23.5¢	Lost
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?	Yes	$543	27.3¢	Lost
Will Mitch McConnell attend the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	$20	20.0¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?	No	$1.5k	85.8¢	Won
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?	Yes	$1.9k	36.0¢	Won
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?	Yes	$20	7.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?	Yes	$119	5.7¢	Lost
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?	No	$412	74.5¢	Won
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?	Yes	$52	5.1¢	Lost
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?	No	$282	8.5¢	Lost
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	No	$26	3.0¢	Won
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election	Yes	$889	64.0¢	Lost
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address?	No	$89	48.7¢	Won
Will Anthony Kennedy attend the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$22	59.0¢	Lost
Will Solana reach $120 in February?	Yes	$18	2.0¢	Lost
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	No	$863	12.0¢	Lost
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$8.6k	49.2¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?	No	$166	20.9¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?	Yes	$891	67.3¢	Won
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025?	Yes	$19	3.3¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?	No	$640	74.9¢	Won
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?	Yes	$223	15.8¢	Lost
Will Amy Coney Barrett attend the 2026 State of the Union address?	Yes	$77	77.0¢	Won
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in December?	No	$450	60.3¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?	Yes	$1.5k	15.3¢	Lost
Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)	Yes	$3	5.0¢	Lost
Will 4-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?	No	$11	2.5¢	Lost
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?	Yes	$9	0.9¢	Lost
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the March Meeting?	No	$53	19.8¢	Won
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025?	Yes	$10	1.8¢	Lost
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	No	$166	73.3¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$879	24.3¢	Lost
Another US debt downgrade in 2025?	Yes	$98	5.2¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?	No	$208	40.0¢	Lost

Will Jensen Huang attend the 2026 State of the Union address?Lost
Yes$9 @ 2.9¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November?Lost
Yes$1 @ 2.6¢
Will Mikie Sherrill win the New Jersey Governor Election in 2025Lost
No$45 @ 15.0¢
Will annual inflation increase by ≥3.2% in November?Lost
Yes$365 @ 5.9¢
Will Jeannette Jara win the 1st round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election?Lost
No$175 @ 13.0¢
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025?Lost
Yes$9 @ 3.3¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Won
No$4 @ 26.0¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Lost
Yes$720 @ 20.5¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025?Won
No$173 @ 64.6¢
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?Won
No$1.4k @ 40.8¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.3% in December?Won
Yes$90 @ 36.0¢
Will Paul Thomas Anderson win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?Lost
No$2 @ 7.0¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?Won
No$5.8k @ 87.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?Lost
Yes$306 @ 8.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in January?Lost
Yes$12 @ 4.5¢
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31?Lost
Yes$807 @ 10.3¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in February?Lost
No$141 @ 23.5¢
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Lost
Yes$543 @ 27.3¢
Will Mitch McConnell attend the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
No$20 @ 20.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May?Won
No$1.5k @ 85.8¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?Won
Yes$1.9k @ 36.0¢
Will Taylor Swift be the top Spotify artist for 2025?Lost
Yes$20 @ 7.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?Lost
Yes$119 @ 5.7¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?Won
No$412 @ 74.5¢
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by December 31?Lost
Yes$52 @ 5.1¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025?Lost
No$282 @ 8.5¢
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionWon
No$26 @ 3.0¢
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral ElectionLost
Yes$889 @ 64.0¢
Will George Santos attend the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
No$89 @ 48.7¢
Will Anthony Kennedy attend the 2026 State of the Union address?Lost
Yes$22 @ 59.0¢
Will Solana reach $120 in February?Lost
Yes$18 @ 2.0¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Lost
No$863 @ 12.0¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Won
Yes$8.6k @ 49.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in February?Lost
No$166 @ 20.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in January?Won
Yes$891 @ 67.3¢
Sam Altman out as OpenAI CEO in 2025?Lost
Yes$19 @ 3.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?Won
No$640 @ 74.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in January?Lost
Yes$223 @ 15.8¢
Will Amy Coney Barrett attend the 2026 State of the Union address?Won
Yes$77 @ 77.0¢
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in December?Won
No$450 @ 60.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May?Lost
Yes$1.5k @ 15.3¢
Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026)Lost
Yes$3 @ 5.0¢
Will 4-6 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2025?Lost
No$11 @ 2.5¢
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 0.9¢
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for the cash rate after the March Meeting?Won
No$53 @ 19.8¢
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in 2025?Lost
Yes$10 @ 1.8¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Won
No$166 @ 73.3¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$879 @ 24.3¢
Another US debt downgrade in 2025?Lost
Yes$98 @ 5.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in May?Lost
No$208 @ 40.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?	Politics	No	$36.0k	79.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	No	$4.6k	82.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$2.7k	36.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?	Crypto	No	$1.6k	24.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?	Politics	No	$1.3k	88.0¢
Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?	Politics	No	$925	86.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$765	8.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$675	16.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$639	18.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$611	14.7¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$578	61.7¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	No	$511	83.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$417	12.1¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$350	70.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$292	17.5¢
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	Politics	No	$287	57.3¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?	Economy	Yes	$135	3.8¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$135	45.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$118	8.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$105	7.6¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?	Tech	Yes	$87	12.5¢
Will XRP reach $2.00 in September?	Crypto	Yes	$87	7.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$78	5.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?	Crypto	Yes	$55	11.1¢
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?	Politics	Yes	$53	54.2¢
Will XRP reach $1.80 in September?	Crypto	Yes	$53	18.2¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	No	$39	31.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$30	6.0¢
Will Nene Royal win AGT Season 21?	Culture	No	$24	11.0¢
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$14	22.8¢

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?Politics
No$36.0k @ 79.5¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
No$4.6k @ 82.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$2.7k @ 36.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in September?Crypto
No$1.6k @ 24.2¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?Politics
No$1.3k @ 88.0¢
Crypto Market Structure legislation becomes law in 2026?Politics
No$925 @ 86.4¢
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$765 @ 8.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$675 @ 16.7¢
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$639 @ 18.6¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$611 @ 14.7¢
Will Ethereum reach $3,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$578 @ 61.7¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
No$511 @ 83.9¢
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$417 @ 12.1¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the December 2026 meeting?Politics
No$350 @ 70.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$292 @ 17.5¢
Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?Politics
No$287 @ 57.3¢
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?Economy
Yes$135 @ 3.8¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$135 @ 45.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$118 @ 8.1¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$105 @ 7.6¢
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Tech
Yes$87 @ 12.5¢
Will XRP reach $2.00 in September?Crypto
Yes$87 @ 7.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$78 @ 5.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September?Crypto
Yes$55 @ 11.1¢
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?Politics
Yes$53 @ 54.2¢
Will XRP reach $1.80 in September?Crypto
Yes$53 @ 18.2¢
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
No$39 @ 31.0¢
Will Ethereum dip to $1,250 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$30 @ 6.0¢
Will Nene Royal win AGT Season 21?Culture
No$24 @ 11.0¢
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$14 @ 22.8¢