0x521a…d12f

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x521a8c20563ccc9e1c8ebfe5cfe6c8f9b2f8d12f
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.5pp

ROI

+18%

Win rate

93% @ 85.9¢

Brier

0.057

Resolved

166

Avg size

$380

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	100% (11/11)	+1%	11
Geopolitics	100% (4/4)	+2%	4
Other	67% (2/3)	+10%	3
Sports	100% (1/1)	+1%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+1%	1

Politics11 bets
Hit rate
100% (11/11)
ROI
+1%
Geopolitics4 bets
Hit rate
100% (4/4)
ROI
+2%
Other3 bets
Hit rate
67% (2/3)
ROI
+10%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+1%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+1%

Track record

95% hit · 19/20

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$195.6k	99.9¢	Won
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$99.1k	99.1¢	Won
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	No	$19.3k	96.5¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	No	$57.1k	99.7¢	Won
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?	No	$1.8k	97.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?	Yes	$97.4k	99.7¢	Won
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$599.4k	99.9¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?	No	$6.4k	98.7¢	Won
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?	No	$66.4k	98.6¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Yes	$37.8k	98.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	No	$936	93.6¢	Won
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	No	$9.7k	96.9¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$7.8k	66.2¢	Won
Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?	No	$747	76.4¢	Lost
Pistons vs. Cavaliers	Cavaliers	$880	88.0¢	Won
Will Trump visit China by May 15?	Yes	$16.9k	86.8¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	No	$36.5k	86.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?	No	$285	85.7¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$728.4k	99.3¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$18.2k	96.4¢	Won

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$195.6k @ 99.9¢
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
No$99.1k @ 99.1¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Won
No$19.3k @ 96.5¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Won
No$57.1k @ 99.7¢
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?Won
No$1.8k @ 97.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$97.4k @ 99.7¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$599.4k @ 99.9¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?Won
No$6.4k @ 98.7¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?Won
No$66.4k @ 98.6¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Won
Yes$37.8k @ 98.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Won
No$936 @ 93.6¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Won
No$9.7k @ 96.9¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$7.8k @ 66.2¢
Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final?Lost
No$747 @ 76.4¢
Pistons vs. CavaliersWon
Cavaliers$880 @ 88.0¢
Will Trump visit China by May 15?Won
Yes$16.9k @ 86.8¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Won
No$36.5k @ 86.9¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026?Won
No$285 @ 85.7¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$728.4k @ 99.3¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$18.2k @ 96.4¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Politics	No	$195.6k	99.9¢

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Politics
No$195.6k @ 99.9¢