← Smart money
0x521a…d12f
SharpEdge
+7.5pp
ROI
+18%
Win rate
93% @ 85.9¢
Brier
0.057
Resolved
166
Avg size
$380
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 100% (3/3) | +21% | 3 |
| Other | 67% (2/3) | +10% | 3 |
| Geopolitics | 100% (1/1) | +4% | 1 |
| Crypto | 100% (1/1) | +1% | 1 |
- Politics3 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (3/3)
- ROI
- +21%
- Other3 bets
- Hit rate
- 67% (2/3)
- ROI
- +10%
- Geopolitics1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +4%
- Crypto1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +1%
Track record
88% hit · 7/8| Market | Outcome | Size | Entry | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran closes its airspace by May 8? | No | $7.8k | 66.2¢ | Won |
| Will Belgium advance through the first Eurovision Semi-Final? | No | $747 | 76.4¢ | Lost |
| Pistons vs. Cavaliers | Cavaliers | $880 | 88.0¢ | Won |
| Will Trump visit China by May 15? | Yes | $16.9k | 86.8¢ | Won |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 15? | No | $36.5k | 86.9¢ | Won |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 8, 2026? | No | $285 | 85.7¢ | Won |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | No | $728.4k | 99.3¢ | Won |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | No | $18.2k | 96.4¢ | Won |
- No$7.8k @ 66.2¢
- No$747 @ 76.4¢
- Cavaliers$880 @ 88.0¢
- Yes$16.9k @ 86.8¢
- No$36.5k @ 86.9¢
- No$285 @ 85.7¢
- No$728.4k @ 99.3¢
- No$18.2k @ 96.4¢
Recent trades
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Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | Sports | No | $297.0k | 99.0¢ |
- No$297.0k @ 99.0¢