0x5207…686b

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x52071e89ed7f68478a428fd65aed5dc572be686b
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+3.7pp

ROI

+19%

Win rate

42% @ 38.5¢

Brier

0.175

Resolved

1660

Avg size

$88

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	47% (118/253)	-10%	253
Politics	59% (26/44)	+113%	44
Sports	73% (11/15)	+71%	15
Tech	42% (5/12)	-11%	12
Science	43% (3/7)	+17%	7
Culture	50% (2/4)	+15%	4
Geopolitics	100% (2/2)	+46%	2
Economy	50% (1/2)	+12%	2

Other253 bets
Hit rate
47% (118/253)
ROI
-10%
Politics44 bets
Hit rate
59% (26/44)
ROI
+113%
Sports15 bets
Hit rate
73% (11/15)
ROI
+71%
Tech12 bets
Hit rate
42% (5/12)
ROI
-11%
Science7 bets
Hit rate
43% (3/7)
ROI
+17%
Culture4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+15%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
100% (2/2)
ROI
+46%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+12%

Track record

50% hit · 168/339

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Bernard Drainville win the next Lévis Quebec National Assembly election?	No	$460	77.8¢	Won
Will Marcos Archambault win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	$2	19.8¢	Won
Will Marie-Claude Sarrazin win the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	$37	73.0¢	Won
Will Guillaume Rousseau win the next Richmond Quebec National Assembly election?	No	$135	81.9¢	Won
Will Chloé Fauchon win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?	No	$27	25.1¢	Won
Will Chloé Fauchon win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	$4	27.6¢	Lost
Will the CAQ win fewer than 1 seat in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	Yes	$449	23.7¢	Won
Will PLQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?	No	$64	55.2¢	Lost
Will the CAQ win 5 or more seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	No	$20	99.0¢	Won
Will the CAQ win fewer than 5 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	Yes	$48	99.0¢	Won
Will Nancy Joannette win the next Jean-Lesage Quebec National Assembly election?	Yes	$5	1.6¢	Lost
Will the CAQ win 30 or more seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?	Yes	$33	38.4¢	Lost
Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority?	Yes	$100	34.1¢	Lost
Will PQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?	Yes	$21	5.5¢	Lost
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?	Yes	$107	2.1¢	Lost
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?	No	$1.3k	8.3¢	Won
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?	No	$216	50.0¢	Lost
Will Kamala Harris attend Dick Cheney's funeral?	Yes	$147	71.7¢	Won
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$6	25.2¢	Won
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?	No	$117	18.3¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?	No	$33	35.0¢	Won
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?	Yes	$20	42.0¢	Lost
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	47.8¢	Lost
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?	Yes	$2	8.7¢	Lost
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?	No	$120	24.0¢	Won
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?	Yes	$168	42.0¢	Lost
Will JD Vance attend Dick Cheney's funeral?	Yes	$6	22.2¢	Lost
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	No	$80	31.3¢	Won
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?	Yes	$516	32.4¢	Lost
Will Snowflake say "Open Source" during earnings call?	No	$50	23.0¢	Won
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?	Yes	$5.6k	77.8¢	Won
Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?	No	$52	34.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Xi events on October 29?	No	$72	45.4¢	Won
Will Lebron announce marketing stunt Tuesday?	No	$212	20.5¢	Lost
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?	Yes	$40	9.4¢	Lost
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?	No	$1.2k	65.0¢	Won
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?	Yes	$581	11.7¢	Lost
Will Aston Villa qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?	Yes	$133	80.3¢	Won
Will Oliver Glasner be the first EPL manager fired?	Yes	$6	3.7¢	Lost
Nothing Ever Happens: October	No	$259	53.0¢	Won
Megaquake by December 31?	No	$122	71.6¢	Won
Megaquake by December 31?	Yes	$35	20.0¢	Lost
Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 26–28 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?	Yes	$36	26.6¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?	Yes	$258	43.0¢	Lost
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	No	$357	70.7¢	Won
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	Yes	$1.2k	73.6¢	Lost
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?	No	$692	40.2¢	Lost
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?	Yes	$149	18.8¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass?	Yes	$265	77.4¢	Won
Will Charles Leclerc win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?	Yes	$3	4.1¢	Lost

Will Bernard Drainville win the next Lévis Quebec National Assembly election?Won
No$460 @ 77.8¢
Will Marcos Archambault win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?Won
Yes$2 @ 19.8¢
Will Marie-Claude Sarrazin win the next Groulx Quebec National Assembly election?Won
Yes$37 @ 73.0¢
Will Guillaume Rousseau win the next Richmond Quebec National Assembly election?Won
No$135 @ 81.9¢
Will Chloé Fauchon win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?Won
No$27 @ 25.1¢
Will Chloé Fauchon win the next Louis-Hébert Quebec National Assembly election?Lost
Yes$4 @ 27.6¢
Will the CAQ win fewer than 1 seat in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Won
Yes$449 @ 23.7¢
Will PLQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?Lost
No$64 @ 55.2¢
Will the CAQ win 5 or more seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Won
No$20 @ 99.0¢
Will the CAQ win fewer than 5 seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Won
Yes$48 @ 99.0¢
Will Nancy Joannette win the next Jean-Lesage Quebec National Assembly election?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.6¢
Will the CAQ win 30 or more seats in the National Assembly of Quebec in this election?Lost
Yes$33 @ 38.4¢
Quebec General Election: PQ Wins a Majority?Lost
Yes$100 @ 34.1¢
Will PQ finish in second place in the Quebec general election?Lost
Yes$21 @ 5.5¢
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be less than 5% on March 31?Lost
Yes$107 @ 2.1¢
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election?Won
No$1.3k @ 8.3¢
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?Lost
No$216 @ 50.0¢
Will Kamala Harris attend Dick Cheney's funeral?Won
Yes$147 @ 71.7¢
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by April 30, 2026?Won
Yes$6 @ 25.2¢
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by January 18?Lost
No$117 @ 18.3¢
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?Won
No$33 @ 35.0¢
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?Lost
Yes$20 @ 42.0¢
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$1.7k @ 47.8¢
Will 125-149 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?Lost
Yes$2 @ 8.7¢
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?Won
No$120 @ 24.0¢
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by February 22?Lost
Yes$168 @ 42.0¢
Will JD Vance attend Dick Cheney's funeral?Lost
Yes$6 @ 22.2¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Won
No$80 @ 31.3¢
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?Lost
Yes$516 @ 32.4¢
Will Snowflake say "Open Source" during earnings call?Won
No$50 @ 23.0¢
Will Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?Won
Yes$5.6k @ 77.8¢
Will Trump say "Tariff" 3+ times during Xi events on October 29?Won
No$52 @ 34.1¢
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during Xi events on October 29?Won
No$72 @ 45.4¢
Will Lebron announce marketing stunt Tuesday?Lost
No$212 @ 20.5¢
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by October 31?Lost
Yes$40 @ 9.4¢
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year?Won
No$1.2k @ 65.0¢
GPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?Lost
Yes$581 @ 11.7¢
Will Aston Villa qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?Won
Yes$133 @ 80.3¢
Will Oliver Glasner be the first EPL manager fired?Lost
Yes$6 @ 3.7¢
Nothing Ever Happens: OctoberWon
No$259 @ 53.0¢
Megaquake by December 31?Won
No$122 @ 71.6¢
Megaquake by December 31?Lost
Yes$35 @ 20.0¢
Will GroenLinks–PvdA win 26–28 seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$36 @ 26.6¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?Lost
Yes$258 @ 43.0¢
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Won
No$357 @ 70.7¢
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 73.6¢
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?Lost
No$692 @ 40.2¢
Will 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?Lost
Yes$149 @ 18.8¢
Will Elon Musk’s $1T Tesla pay deal pass?Won
Yes$265 @ 77.4¢
Will Charles Leclerc win the Sprint at the 2026 F1 Chinese Grand Prix?Lost
Yes$3 @ 4.1¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?	Politics	No	$4.5k	80.8¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-11 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$3.8k	95.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.6k	51.4¢
US military draft authorized in 2026?	Politics	No	$2.9k	86.2¢
Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?	Politics	No	$2.2k	58.7¢
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?	Politics	No	$2.1k	61.4¢
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$1.9k	13.3¢
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?	Politics	Yes	$1.9k	54.0¢
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	Science	No	$1.6k	75.0¢
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	36.2¢
Will the Republican Party win the GA-10 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$1.5k	89.6¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?	Culture	No	$1.4k	49.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?	Culture	Yes	$963	20.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$927	81.0¢
Will Linke be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?	Politics	No	$672	84.0¢
Will John Coupar win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?	Politics	No	$568	94.4¢
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$547	40.4¢
Another Canada election called by December 31, 2026?	Politics	No	$532	80.8¢
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?	Politics	No	$516	89.8¢
Will the Republican Party win the CA-11 House seat?	Politics	No	$514	95.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$507	23.9¢
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026?	Politics	No	$472	88.8¢
Will Bernard Drainville win the next Lévis Quebec National Assembly election?	Politics	No	$460	77.8¢
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?	Politics	Yes	$266	51.8¢
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$252	59.1¢
Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$238	68.7¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election?	Politics	Yes	$203	43.5¢
Will Manchester City be deducted 50 or more Premier League points?	Sports	Yes	$174	20.0¢
Will Claire Rattée win the next Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?	Politics	No	$163	85.6¢
Will John Cornyn endorse James Talarico in the Texas Senate Election?	Politics	No	$156	84.1¢

Will Alberta vote for independence in 2026?Politics
No$4.5k @ 80.8¢
Will the Democratic Party win the CA-11 House seat?Politics
Yes$3.8k @ 95.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$3.6k @ 51.4¢
US military draft authorized in 2026?Politics
No$2.9k @ 86.2¢
Will Pam Alexis win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Politics
No$2.2k @ 58.7¢
Will Kerry-Lynne Findlay win the next Abbotsford-Mission by-election?Politics
No$2.1k @ 61.4¢
Callum Turner announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$1.9k @ 13.3¢
Will David Eby be the next Premier of British Columbia?Politics
Yes$1.9k @ 54.0¢
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?Science
No$1.6k @ 75.0¢
Will Ken Sim win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 36.2¢
Will the Republican Party win the GA-10 House seat?Politics
Yes$1.5k @ 89.6¢
Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Culture
No$1.4k @ 49.0¢
No one announced as next James Bond?Culture
Yes$963 @ 20.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$927 @ 81.0¢
Will Linke be in the next Sachsen-Anhalt state government?Politics
No$672 @ 84.0¢
Will John Coupar win the 2026 Vancouver mayoral election?Politics
No$568 @ 94.4¢
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$547 @ 40.4¢
Another Canada election called by December 31, 2026?Politics
No$532 @ 80.8¢
Will Trump meet with Nick Fuentes in 2026?Politics
No$516 @ 89.8¢
Will the Republican Party win the CA-11 House seat?Politics
No$514 @ 95.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Politics
Yes$507 @ 23.9¢
Will Trump meet with Lai Ching-te in 2026?Politics
No$472 @ 88.8¢
Will Bernard Drainville win the next Lévis Quebec National Assembly election?Politics
No$460 @ 77.8¢
Will NDP win the most seats in the 2026 British Columbia general election?Politics
Yes$266 @ 51.8¢
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2026?Politics
Yes$252 @ 59.1¢
Will the Republican Party win the MO-02 House seat?Politics
Yes$238 @ 68.7¢
Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Railroad Commissioner election?Politics
Yes$203 @ 43.5¢
Will Manchester City be deducted 50 or more Premier League points?Sports
Yes$174 @ 20.0¢
Will Claire Rattée win the next Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?Politics
No$163 @ 85.6¢
Will John Cornyn endorse James Talarico in the Texas Senate Election?Politics
No$156 @ 84.1¢