0x51b2…10ce

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x51b22927d7b99ea9477a6c99b8c9397e6a4110ce
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+5.9pp

ROI

+151%

Win rate

17% @ 11.6¢

Brier

0.140

Resolved

419

Avg size

$41

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	18% (24/137)	+256%	137
Politics	9% (6/65)	-50%	65
Geopolitics	0% (0/25)	-100%	25
Sports	9% (1/11)	-69%	11

Other137 bets
Hit rate
18% (24/137)
ROI
+256%
Politics65 bets
Hit rate
9% (6/65)
ROI
-50%
Geopolitics25 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/25)
ROI
-100%
Sports11 bets
Hit rate
9% (1/11)
ROI
-69%

Track record

13% hit · 31/238

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?	Yes	$10	2.5¢	Lost
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?	Yes	$15	4.3¢	Lost
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Morocco	$10	4.8¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?	Yes	$20	10.6¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 10?	Yes	$40	1.7¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?	Yes	$90	3.6¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 13?	Yes	$10	0.8¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 14?	Yes	$20	1.1¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by June 12?	Yes	$20	1.3¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	Yes	$51	7.2¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	No	$2	0.1¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?	Yes	$50	13.4¢	Won
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?	Yes	$5	4.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	Yes	$257	5.3¢	Lost
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Yes	$20	5.8¢	Lost
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31?	Yes	$5	1.5¢	Lost
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs	Trail Blazers	$10	17.0¢	Lost
Deni Avdija: Points O/U 22.5	Yes	$50	53.0¢	Lost
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers	Trail Blazers	$7	0.4¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$5	2.0¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$100	13.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET	Up	$10	45.7¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Up	$5	26.2¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET	Up	$10	44.7¢	Lost
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?	Yes	$14	0.1¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET	Up	$5	39.6¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET	Down	$5	7.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET	Down	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET	Down	$1	19.1¢	Lost
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)	Paris Saint-Germain FC	$25	7.6¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET	Up	$1	1.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET	Down	$5	8.6¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET	Down	$15	4.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET	Up	$6	54.8¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Down	$5	22.2¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Down	$6	4.8¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET	Up	$3	2.5¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET	Down	$1	0.9¢	Lost
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?	Yes	$0	7.0¢	Lost
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Up	$10	61.9¢	Lost
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	Yes	$50	7.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	No	$30	43.3¢	Lost
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State Cyclones	Kentucky Wildcats	$7	0.2¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?	Yes	$20	3.0¢	Lost
Will France strike Iran by March 31?	Yes	$16	17.2¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	Yes	$50	11.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?	Yes	$20	4.0¢	Lost
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?	Yes	$20	4.4¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?	No	$10	16.0¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?	Yes	$100	14.0¢	Lost

Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?Lost
Yes$10 @ 2.5¢
Will Portugal vs. Spain end in a draw?Lost
Yes$15 @ 4.3¢
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)Lost
Morocco$10 @ 4.8¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?Lost
Yes$20 @ 10.6¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 10?Lost
Yes$40 @ 1.7¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?Lost
Yes$90 @ 3.6¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 13?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.8¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 14?Lost
Yes$20 @ 1.1¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 12?Lost
Yes$20 @ 1.3¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?Lost
Yes$51 @ 7.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Lost
No$2 @ 0.1¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?Won
Yes$50 @ 13.4¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30?Lost
Yes$5 @ 4.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?Lost
Yes$257 @ 5.3¢
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?Lost
Yes$20 @ 5.8¢
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by May 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 1.5¢
Trail Blazers vs. SpursLost
Trail Blazers$10 @ 17.0¢
Deni Avdija: Points O/U 22.5Lost
Yes$50 @ 53.0¢
Spurs vs. Trail BlazersLost
Trail Blazers$7 @ 0.4¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$5 @ 2.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$100 @ 13.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:00AM-5:05AM ETLost
Up$10 @ 45.7¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:10PM-5:15PM ETLost
Up$5 @ 26.2¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ETLost
Up$10 @ 44.7¢
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?Lost
Yes$14 @ 0.1¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:55PM-3:00PM ETLost
Up$5 @ 39.6¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ETLost
Down$5 @ 7.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 2:50PM-2:55PM ETLost
Down$1 @ 1.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 10:25AM-10:30AM ETLost
Down$1 @ 19.1¢
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5)Lost
Paris Saint-Germain FC$25 @ 7.6¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 4:30PM-4:35PM ETLost
Up$1 @ 1.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ETLost
Down$5 @ 8.6¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ETLost
Down$15 @ 4.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:25PM-1:30PM ETLost
Up$6 @ 54.8¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:20PM-5:25PM ETLost
Down$5 @ 22.2¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 6:15AM-6:20AM ETLost
Down$6 @ 4.8¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 11:35AM-11:40AM ETLost
Up$3 @ 2.5¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 1:30PM-1:35PM ETLost
Down$1 @ 0.9¢
Will Spain win on 2026-07-19?Lost
Yes$0 @ 7.0¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 5:15AM-5:20AM ETLost
Up$10 @ 61.9¢
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Lost
Yes$50 @ 7.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Lost
No$30 @ 43.3¢
Kentucky Wildcats vs. Iowa State CyclonesLost
Kentucky Wildcats$7 @ 0.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 24, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 3.0¢
Will France strike Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$16 @ 17.2¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Lost
Yes$50 @ 11.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 4.0¢
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?Lost
Yes$20 @ 4.4¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?Won
No$10 @ 16.0¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July?Lost
Yes$100 @ 14.0¢

Recent trades

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Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Iran closes its airspace by May 18?	Politics	Yes	$257	5.3¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$200	5.4¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?	—	Yes	$130	26.4¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 14?	Politics	Yes	$130	3.6¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?	Politics	Yes	$110	6.2¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$100	16.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$100	13.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?	Politics	Yes	$90	3.6¢
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?	—	Yes	$70	6.7¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?	Politics	No	$70	2.8¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?	Geopolitics	Yes	$60	4.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	—	No	$60	3.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?	Geopolitics	No	$60	7.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?	Geopolitics	No	$53	5.7¢
Deni Avdija: Points O/U 22.5	—	Yes	$50	53.0¢
Pacers vs. Thunder	—	Pacers	$50	30.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?	Politics	Yes	$50	6.8¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?	Politics	Yes	$50	12.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?	—	Yes	$50	12.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?	Geopolitics	No	$50	12.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$50	5.0¢
Iran leadership change by April 30?	Politics	Yes	$46	4.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?	Geopolitics	No	$41	7.4¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?	Politics	Yes	$40	2.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?	Geopolitics	No	$40	3.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 10?	Politics	Yes	$40	1.7¢
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?	Politics	Yes	$40	2.2¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$40	2.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?	Politics	Yes	$36	2.4¢
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?	Sports	Yes	$35	1.6¢

Iran closes its airspace by May 18?Politics
Yes$257 @ 5.3¢
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$200 @ 5.4¢
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-19?—
Yes$130 @ 26.4¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 14?Politics
Yes$130 @ 3.6¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?Politics
Yes$110 @ 6.2¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$100 @ 16.2¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$100 @ 13.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 9?Politics
Yes$90 @ 3.6¢
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026?—
Yes$70 @ 6.7¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24?Politics
No$70 @ 2.8¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 15?Geopolitics
Yes$60 @ 4.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?—
No$60 @ 3.8¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 24?Geopolitics
No$60 @ 7.4¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Geopolitics
No$53 @ 5.7¢
Deni Avdija: Points O/U 22.5—
Yes$50 @ 53.0¢
Pacers vs. Thunder—
Pacers$50 @ 30.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?Politics
Yes$50 @ 6.8¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 24?Politics
Yes$50 @ 12.2¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 17, 2026?—
Yes$50 @ 12.7¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?Geopolitics
No$50 @ 12.0¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Geopolitics
Yes$50 @ 5.0¢
Iran leadership change by April 30?Politics
Yes$46 @ 4.3¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 18?Geopolitics
No$41 @ 7.4¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 8?Politics
Yes$40 @ 2.2¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?Geopolitics
No$40 @ 3.9¢
Israel closes its airspace by June 10?Politics
Yes$40 @ 1.7¢
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?Politics
Yes$40 @ 2.2¢
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$40 @ 2.4¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?Politics
Yes$36 @ 2.4¢
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?Sports
Yes$35 @ 1.6¢