0x5188…c804

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5188fa0e8a77e87bc6a58e6781fdfc4e165cc804
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.0pp

ROI

+17%

Win rate

38% @ 33.9¢

Brier

0.098

Resolved

2473

Avg size

$588

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	52% (41/79)	+15%	79
Other	51% (37/73)	-1%	73
Crypto	40% (6/15)	+17%	15
Tech	25% (2/8)	-71%	8
Culture	33% (2/6)	+28%	6
Sports	25% (1/4)	-77%	4
Geopolitics	0% (0/2)	-100%	2

Politics79 bets
Hit rate
52% (41/79)
ROI
+15%
Other73 bets
Hit rate
51% (37/73)
ROI
-1%
Crypto15 bets
Hit rate
40% (6/15)
ROI
+17%
Tech8 bets
Hit rate
25% (2/8)
ROI
-71%
Culture6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
+28%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-77%
Geopolitics2 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/2)
ROI
-100%

Track record

48% hit · 89/187

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will STRC hit $100 by October 31?	No	$271	14.9¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?	Yes	$5.2k	26.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?	No	$5	31.0¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on October 22?	Yes	$930	93.0¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on October 22?	No	$1.0k	93.7¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?	Yes	$5.4k	57.0¢	Won
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?	No	$4.8k	73.5¢	Lost
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?	No	$557	90.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	87.6¢	Won
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?	Yes	$760	12.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?	No	$15.7k	78.5¢	Won
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?	Yes	$490	7.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$98.6k	13.0¢	Lost
Will "Patient Zero" hit 60m first week streams?	No	$152	55.0¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?	Yes	$3	34.0¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?	No	$616	79.8¢	Won
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	$6	0.2¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$24.7k	53.2¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$37.5k	11.2¢	Lost
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?	Yes	$316	11.7¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	No	$8.7k	8.9¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?	Yes	$7.0k	65.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$26.7k	56.2¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	No	$5.6k	79.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	No	$16.3k	65.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?	Yes	$2.4k	2.4¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$362	0.3¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.2k	0.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$8.1k	12.1¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	No	$1.1k	80.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$12.9k	10.8¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$42.5k	51.6¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$16.8k	51.6¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	No	$160	75.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?	Yes	$18.2k	16.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?	Yes	$14.2k	81.6¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$1.9k	86.2¢	Won
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	No	$34	0.3¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?	Yes	$11.0k	84.7¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?	No	$22.5k	65.7¢	Won
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?	Yes	$7	70.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$2.8k	66.0¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	No	$861	29.0¢	Lost
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?	Yes	$785	69.6¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?	No	$7.6k	77.5¢	Won
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?	Yes	$5	0.1¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	No	$2.8k	9.8¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$14.9k	86.5¢	Won
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?	Yes	$4	13.0¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?	No	$17.0k	44.4¢	Lost

Will STRC hit $100 by October 31?Won
No$271 @ 14.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in October?Lost
Yes$5.2k @ 26.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in October?Won
No$5 @ 31.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on October 22?Won
Yes$930 @ 93.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on October 22?Won
No$1.0k @ 93.7¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in October?Won
Yes$5.4k @ 57.0¢
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by December 31?Lost
No$4.8k @ 73.5¢
Katie Zacharia out as Press Secretary by October 31?Lost
No$557 @ 90.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 87.6¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31?Lost
Yes$760 @ 12.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 21?Won
No$15.7k @ 78.5¢
Will four or more people dissent the April Fed decision?Lost
Yes$490 @ 7.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$98.6k @ 13.0¢
Will "Patient Zero" hit 60m first week streams?Won
No$152 @ 55.0¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 15?Lost
Yes$3 @ 34.0¢
Will Elon Musk and Sam Altman settle?Won
No$616 @ 79.8¢
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair?Lost
Yes$6 @ 0.2¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$24.7k @ 53.2¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$37.5k @ 11.2¢
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30?Lost
Yes$316 @ 11.7¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Lost
No$8.7k @ 8.9¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?Won
Yes$7.0k @ 65.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$26.7k @ 56.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?Won
No$5.6k @ 79.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
No$16.3k @ 65.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026?Lost
Yes$2.4k @ 2.4¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$362 @ 0.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 0.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$8.1k @ 12.1¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Won
No$1.1k @ 80.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$12.9k @ 10.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$42.5k @ 51.6¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$16.8k @ 51.6¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Won
No$160 @ 75.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?Lost
Yes$18.2k @ 16.2¢
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview?Won
Yes$14.2k @ 81.6¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$1.9k @ 86.2¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Lost
No$34 @ 0.3¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22?Won
Yes$11.0k @ 84.7¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?Won
No$22.5k @ 65.7¢
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11?Won
Yes$7 @ 70.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$2.8k @ 66.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Lost
No$861 @ 29.0¢
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?Won
Yes$785 @ 69.6¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24?Won
No$7.6k @ 77.5¢
Will Stephen Miran be confirmed as Fed Chair?Lost
Yes$5 @ 0.1¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Lost
No$2.8k @ 9.8¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$14.9k @ 86.5¢
Hantavirus outbreak by June 30?Lost
Yes$4 @ 13.0¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?Lost
No$17.0k @ 44.4¢

Recent trades

live from Polymarket · click a column to sort

Loading recent trades…

Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?	Politics	No	$41.9k	85.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$38.1k	34.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$17.0k	14.9¢
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$15.1k	66.2¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$9.4k	78.0¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	Tech	No	$8.3k	84.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$6.7k	21.6¢
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$6.7k	26.3¢
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$6.1k	36.0¢
Papertrade FDV above $250M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$6.0k	71.9¢
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$5.1k	15.4¢
Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$4.0k	50.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$3.9k	78.0¢
Papertrade FDV above $75M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$2.6k	58.1¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Tech	No	$2.3k	17.2¢
Papertrade FDV above $150M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$1.5k	65.8¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?	Tech	No	$1.4k	34.0¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$785	58.3¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$700	7.0¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$614	78.0¢
Will Elizabeth Pipko be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	No	$490	94.9¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?	Tech	No	$480	85.1¢
Will Steven Cheung be the next White House Press Secretary?	Politics	No	$292	97.3¢
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	Politics	No	$279	93.8¢
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on December 31?	Politics	No	$196	88.3¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$88	29.4¢
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$72	2.3¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Tech	Yes	$68	21.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?	Crypto	No	$60	15.3¢
Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?	Politics	No	$34	86.0¢

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Politics
No$41.9k @ 85.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$38.1k @ 34.5¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$17.0k @ 14.9¢
Variational FDV above $2B one day after launch?Crypto
No$15.1k @ 66.2¢
Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$9.4k @ 78.0¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?Tech
No$8.3k @ 84.9¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$6.7k @ 21.6¢
Variational FDV above $800M one day after launch?Crypto
No$6.7k @ 26.3¢
Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?Crypto
No$6.1k @ 36.0¢
Papertrade FDV above $250M one day after launch?Crypto
No$6.0k @ 71.9¢
Variational FDV above $500M one day after launch?Crypto
No$5.1k @ 15.4¢
Papertrade FDV above $50M one day after launch?Crypto
No$4.0k @ 50.0¢
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$3.9k @ 78.0¢
Papertrade FDV above $75M one day after launch?Crypto
No$2.6k @ 58.1¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech
No$2.3k @ 17.2¢
Papertrade FDV above $150M one day after launch?Crypto
No$1.5k @ 65.8¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?Tech
No$1.4k @ 34.0¢
Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$785 @ 58.3¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$700 @ 7.0¢
Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$614 @ 78.0¢
Will Elizabeth Pipko be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
No$490 @ 94.9¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?Tech
No$480 @ 85.1¢
Will Steven Cheung be the next White House Press Secretary?Politics
No$292 @ 97.3¢
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?Politics
No$279 @ 93.8¢
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 15% and 25% on December 31?Politics
No$196 @ 88.3¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?Tech
Yes$88 @ 29.4¢
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?Crypto
No$72 @ 2.3¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between 1.5T and 1.8T at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech
Yes$68 @ 21.0¢
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?Crypto
No$60 @ 15.3¢
Kimberly Guilfoyle federally charged by December 31?Politics
No$34 @ 86.0¢