0x5188…c804

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5188fa0e8a77e87bc6a58e6781fdfc4e165cc804
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+12.8pp

ROI

+12%

Win rate

67% @ 54.4¢

Brier

0.122

Resolved

323

Avg size

$932

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Politics	63% (17/27)	+18%	27
Other	72% (18/25)	+6%	25
Tech	17% (1/6)	-72%	6
Sports	25% (1/4)	-77%	4
Crypto	50% (2/4)	+23%	4
Geopolitics	0% (0/1)	-100%	1

Politics27 bets
Hit rate
63% (17/27)
ROI
+18%
Other25 bets
Hit rate
72% (18/25)
ROI
+6%
Tech6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-72%
Sports4 bets
Hit rate
25% (1/4)
ROI
-77%
Crypto4 bets
Hit rate
50% (2/4)
ROI
+23%
Geopolitics1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%

Track record

58% hit · 39/67

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$1.7k	87.6¢	Won
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?	Yes	$24.7k	53.2¢	Won
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?	No	$5.6k	79.0¢	Won
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$362	0.3¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$1.2k	0.6¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?	No	$17.0k	44.4¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	No	$2.0k	71.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?	Yes	$4.8k	75.3¢	Won
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?	Yes	$30.5k	84.0¢	Won
Will Warsh say "Trump" during September Press Conference?	Yes	$967	11.0¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?	Yes	$300	3.0¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$2.7k	21.0¢	Lost
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026?	No	$963	80.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	Yes	$30	10.7¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$34.8k	84.3¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	No	$17.6k	88.0¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?	Yes	$17.9k	30.4¢	Lost
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?	Yes	$1.1k	89.0¢	Won
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?	Yes	$1.1k	68.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	No	$8.8k	74.9¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?	Yes	$109	1.1¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$4.6k	50.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$53.0k	62.2¢	Won
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?	Yes	$189	47.0¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?	No	$6.5k	67.4¢	Lost
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?	Yes	$2.3k	43.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?	No	$4.8k	32.5¢	Lost
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?	Yes	$6	31.0¢	Won
Will Jorge Jesus attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	No	$306	87.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 10+ times during Michigan remarks?	No	$6	96.0¢	Won
Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	No	$13.6k	96.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?	No	$30	90.3¢	Won
Will Trump say "Ethanol" during Michigan remarks?	No	$53	89.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Motor City" during Michigan remarks?	No	$42	97.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Michigan remarks?	No	$89	94.1¢	Won
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$25	2.5¢	Lost
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?	No	$1.4k	32.7¢	Lost
Will Joao Felix attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?	No	$86	91.1¢	Won
Will Trump say "USMCA" or "NAFTA" during Michigan remarks?	No	$49	97.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Michigan remarks?	No	$35	70.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?	No	$8.7k	69.3¢	Won
Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?	Yes	$54.9k	99.8¢	Won
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?	No	$235	12.7¢	Lost
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?	No	$59.7k	99.5¢	Won
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?	Yes	$21.9k	99.3¢	Won
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?	Yes	$2.4k	81.4¢	Won
Will any FaZe member come out as a furry by July 31?	Yes	$5	40.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$14.2k	4.8¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$36.0k	51.1¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$15.9k	62.8¢	Lost

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$1.7k @ 87.6¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 13?Won
Yes$24.7k @ 53.2¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?Won
No$5.6k @ 79.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$362 @ 0.3¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$1.2k @ 0.6¢
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in August?Lost
No$17.0k @ 44.4¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Lost
No$2.0k @ 71.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 17?Won
Yes$4.8k @ 75.3¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?Won
Yes$30.5k @ 84.0¢
Will Warsh say "Trump" during September Press Conference?Lost
Yes$967 @ 11.0¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?Lost
Yes$300 @ 3.0¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
No$2.7k @ 21.0¢
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026?Lost
No$963 @ 80.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?Won
Yes$30 @ 10.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$34.8k @ 84.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Won
No$17.6k @ 88.0¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?Lost
Yes$17.9k @ 30.4¢
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 89.0¢
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?Won
Yes$1.1k @ 68.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?Won
No$8.8k @ 74.9¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 23, 2026?Lost
Yes$109 @ 1.1¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$4.6k @ 50.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
Yes$53.0k @ 62.2¢
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?Lost
Yes$189 @ 47.0¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?Lost
No$6.5k @ 67.4¢
Will Kai and Speed beat the Minecraft challenge by August 12?Won
Yes$2.3k @ 43.0¢
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30?Lost
No$4.8k @ 32.5¢
Will Karoline Leavitt leave the Trump administration before 2027?Won
Yes$6 @ 31.0¢
Will Jorge Jesus attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?Won
No$306 @ 87.0¢
Will Trump say "Oil" or "Gas" 10+ times during Michigan remarks?Won
No$6 @ 96.0¢
Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?Won
No$13.6k @ 96.0¢
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Michigan remarks?Won
No$30 @ 90.3¢
Will Trump say "Ethanol" during Michigan remarks?Won
No$53 @ 89.0¢
Will Trump say "Motor City" during Michigan remarks?Won
No$42 @ 97.0¢
Will Trump say "Drill Baby Drill" during Michigan remarks?Won
No$89 @ 94.1¢
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$25 @ 2.5¢
China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Lost
No$1.4k @ 32.7¢
Will Joao Felix attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding?Won
No$86 @ 91.1¢
Will Trump say "USMCA" or "NAFTA" during Michigan remarks?Won
No$49 @ 97.0¢
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Michigan remarks?Won
No$35 @ 70.0¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
No$8.7k @ 69.3¢
Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?Won
Yes$54.9k @ 99.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?Lost
No$235 @ 12.7¢
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?Won
No$59.7k @ 99.5¢
Will Trump be in the WC Champions Photo?Won
Yes$21.9k @ 99.3¢
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?Won
Yes$2.4k @ 81.4¢
Will any FaZe member come out as a furry by July 31?Lost
Yes$5 @ 40.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$14.2k @ 4.8¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$36.0k @ 51.1¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$15.9k @ 62.8¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?	Science	No	$68.8k	96.4¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?	—	No	$15.2k	39.2¢
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?	—	No	$11.6k	82.4¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	—	No	$10.2k	85.0¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$7.9k	89.4¢
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	—	No	$4.6k	87.0¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?	Tech	No	$2.4k	17.2¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$700	7.0¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?	—	Yes	$584	17.4¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?	—	No	$516	34.9¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$392	7.1¢
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?	—	No	$279	93.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?	—	No	$195	65.0¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?	—	No	$194	56.5¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?	—	No	$112	71.1¢
Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary?	—	Yes	$24	8.0¢
Will Lauren Bis be the next White House Press Secretary?	—	Yes	$7	7.4¢
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?	—	Yes	$7	7.0¢
Will Obsession be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?	—	Yes	$2	13.0¢

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Science
No$68.8k @ 96.4¢
Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?—
No$15.2k @ 39.2¢
Will Maria Bartiromo be the next White House Press Secretary?—
No$11.6k @ 82.4¢
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?—
No$10.2k @ 85.0¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by September 30, 2026?—
No$7.9k @ 89.4¢
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?—
No$4.6k @ 87.0¢
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027?Tech
No$2.4k @ 17.2¢
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
Yes$700 @ 7.0¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by June 30, 2027?—
Yes$584 @ 17.4¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by December 31, 2027?—
No$516 @ 34.9¢
Trump renames New Mexico to New America by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$392 @ 7.1¢
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by December 31?—
No$279 @ 93.8¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?—
No$195 @ 65.0¢
Skin cancer vaccine FDA approved by September 30, 2027?—
No$194 @ 56.5¢
Will Alina Habba be the next White House Press Secretary?—
No$112 @ 71.1¢
Will Natalie Harp be the next White House Press Secretary?—
Yes$24 @ 8.0¢
Will Lauren Bis be the next White House Press Secretary?—
Yes$7 @ 7.4¢
Will Scott Jennings be the next White House Press Secretary?—
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Will Obsession be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?—
Yes$2 @ 13.0¢