0x5144…37c9

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x51443076fb1d6ef85ac16de97ae86c018e0c37c9
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+9.6pp

ROI

+58%

Win rate

40% @ 30.0¢

Brier

0.198

Resolved

258

Avg size

$32

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	46% (24/52)	+102%	52
Politics	40% (8/20)	+29%	20
Geopolitics	20% (1/5)	-51%	5
Tech	33% (1/3)	-9%	3
Crypto	33% (1/3)	-40%	3
Culture	100% (1/1)	+74%	1

Other52 bets
Hit rate
46% (24/52)
ROI
+102%
Politics20 bets
Hit rate
40% (8/20)
ROI
+29%
Geopolitics5 bets
Hit rate
20% (1/5)
ROI
-51%
Tech3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-9%
Crypto3 bets
Hit rate
33% (1/3)
ROI
-40%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+74%

Track record

43% hit · 36/84

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?	No	$100	86.0¢	Won
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	Yes	$20	21.5¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	No	$30	61.0¢	Won
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$200	21.4¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?	No	$197	69.0¢	Won
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?	Yes	$1	13.0¢	Lost
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?	No	$5	29.0¢	Lost
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?	No	$5	16.3¢	Lost
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?	No	$10	67.0¢	Won
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$20	44.0¢	Won
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Yes	$100	16.6¢	Lost
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?	No	$20	48.0¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?	Yes	$4	15.7¢	Lost
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?	Yes	$60	57.7¢	Lost
Will "ONE PIECE" win Best Continuing Series at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?	Yes	$21	71.3¢	Won
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?	Yes	$5	23.0¢	Lost
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08?	Yes	$5	25.0¢	Lost
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	No	$427	87.4¢	Won
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?	Yes	$20	20.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	No	$20	68.0¢	Won
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$10	35.9¢	Lost
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?	No	$653	71.6¢	Lost
Will "My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON" win Anime of the Year at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?	No	$10	30.7¢	Lost
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?	Yes	$20	45.0¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$2	14.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	Yes	$77	57.0¢	Lost
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-11?	No	$4	41.0¢	Lost
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$200	7.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$50	50.0¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	No	$50	44.3¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?	Yes	$113	17.0¢	Won
Will Reina Ueda as Reze (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc) win Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Japanese) at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?	Yes	$5	9.8¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$863	29.0¢	Won
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?	No	$25	21.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1?	Yes	$3	17.0¢	Lost
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?	Yes	$107	2.9¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?	No	$55	72.0¢	Won
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?	No	$5	42.0¢	Won
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?	Yes	$10	10.0¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by April 30?	Yes	$212	63.9¢	Won
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?	No	$234	73.6¢	Lost
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?	Yes	$129	1.3¢	Lost
Will Russia enter Riasne by May 31?	No	$63	66.0¢	Lost
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 20?	Yes	$17	57.5¢	Won
Will Aoi Yuki as Maomao (The Apothecary Diaries Season 2) win Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Japanese) at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?	Yes	$5	10.3¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	Yes	$7	27.0¢	Lost
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?	No	$19	20.0¢	Lost
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?	No	$211	84.4¢	Won
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?	No	$10	18.0¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?	No	$250	82.9¢	Won

Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 28, 2026?Won
No$100 @ 86.0¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Lost
Yes$20 @ 21.5¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
No$30 @ 61.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$200 @ 21.4¢
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by June 30?Won
No$197 @ 69.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?Lost
Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 29.0¢
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$5 @ 16.3¢
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?Won
No$10 @ 67.0¢
Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by May 31, 2026?Won
Yes$20 @ 44.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Lost
Yes$100 @ 16.6¢
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08?Lost
No$20 @ 48.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Lost
Yes$4 @ 15.7¢
Will Claude by Anthropic be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on June 12?Lost
Yes$60 @ 57.7¢
Will "ONE PIECE" win Best Continuing Series at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?Won
Yes$21 @ 71.3¢
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Lost
Yes$5 @ 23.0¢
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-08?Lost
Yes$5 @ 25.0¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Won
No$427 @ 87.4¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Won
No$20 @ 68.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 35.9¢
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17?Lost
No$653 @ 71.6¢
Will "My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON" win Anime of the Year at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?Lost
No$10 @ 30.7¢
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04?Won
Yes$20 @ 45.0¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$2 @ 14.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Lost
Yes$77 @ 57.0¢
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-11?Lost
No$4 @ 41.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$200 @ 7.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Lost
No$50 @ 44.3¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Won
Yes$113 @ 17.0¢
Will Reina Ueda as Reze (Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc) win Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Japanese) at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?Lost
Yes$5 @ 9.8¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?Won
Yes$863 @ 29.0¢
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T?Lost
No$25 @ 21.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 45 and 50 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$3 @ 17.0¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?Lost
Yes$107 @ 2.9¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?Won
No$55 @ 72.0¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 21, 2026?Won
No$5 @ 42.0¢
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
US forces enter Iran by April 30?Won
Yes$212 @ 63.9¢
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?Lost
No$234 @ 73.6¢
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$129 @ 1.3¢
Will Russia enter Riasne by May 31?Lost
No$63 @ 66.0¢
Will "I Knew It, I Knew You - Taylor Swift" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of June 20?Won
Yes$17 @ 57.5¢
Will Aoi Yuki as Maomao (The Apothecary Diaries Season 2) win Best Anime Voice Artist Performance (Japanese) at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?Won
Yes$5 @ 10.3¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$7 @ 27.0¢
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?Lost
No$19 @ 20.0¢
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?Won
No$211 @ 84.4¢
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?Lost
No$10 @ 18.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?Won
No$250 @ 82.9¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$1000	30.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$700	45.5¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$600	61.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$500	25.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?	—	Yes	$500	50.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$400	26.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?	Tech	Yes	$400	56.0¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$400	54.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$200	7.0¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$200	42.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$200	63.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$175	5.0¢
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$165	78.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?	Politics	Yes	$120	13.0¢
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$117	1.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$100	16.6¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?	Tech	Yes	$100	12.2¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$100	63.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	Geopolitics	Yes	$100	14.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$70	1.4¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$68	1.8¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$50	4.0¢
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$50	24.4¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?	Politics	Yes	$50	43.9¢
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$39	1.2¢
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$30	18.0¢
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Sports	Yes	$28	0.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?	Other	Yes	$19	21.5¢
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30?	—	Yes	$15	28.7¢
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	—	Yes	$14	70.5¢

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?Politics
Yes$1000 @ 30.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?Politics
Yes$700 @ 45.5¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$600 @ 61.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?—
Yes$500 @ 25.0¢
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?—
Yes$500 @ 50.0¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$400 @ 26.0¢
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Tech
Yes$400 @ 56.0¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31?Politics
Yes$400 @ 54.0¢
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$200 @ 7.0¢
US x Cuba military clash in 2026?Politics
Yes$200 @ 42.0¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?Politics
Yes$200 @ 63.0¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?—
Yes$175 @ 5.0¢
Will Portugal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$165 @ 78.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?Politics
Yes$120 @ 13.0¢
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$117 @ 1.0¢
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?Politics
Yes$100 @ 16.6¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?Tech
Yes$100 @ 12.2¢
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$100 @ 63.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Geopolitics
Yes$100 @ 14.2¢
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?Geopolitics
Yes$70 @ 1.4¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$68 @ 1.8¢
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30?Politics
Yes$50 @ 4.0¢
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$50 @ 24.4¢
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30?Politics
Yes$50 @ 43.9¢
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$39 @ 1.2¢
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$30 @ 18.0¢
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Sports
Yes$28 @ 0.3¢
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June?Other
Yes$19 @ 21.5¢
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by June 30?—
Yes$15 @ 28.7¢
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?—
Yes$14 @ 70.5¢