← Smart money
0x5144…37c9
SharpEdge
+7.1pp
ROI
+45%
Win rate
37% @ 30.3¢
Brier
0.204
Resolved
270
Avg size
$33
ROI trend
Specialization by sphere
| Sphere | Hit rate | ROI | Bets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Other | 46% (24/52) | +102% | 52 |
| Politics | 38% (8/21) | +28% | 21 |
| Geopolitics | 20% (1/5) | -51% | 5 |
| Tech | 33% (1/3) | -9% | 3 |
| Crypto | 33% (1/3) | -40% | 3 |
| Culture | 100% (1/1) | +74% | 1 |
- Other52 bets
- Hit rate
- 46% (24/52)
- ROI
- +102%
- Politics21 bets
- Hit rate
- 38% (8/21)
- ROI
- +28%
- Geopolitics5 bets
- Hit rate
- 20% (1/5)
- ROI
- -51%
- Tech3 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (1/3)
- ROI
- -9%
- Crypto3 bets
- Hit rate
- 33% (1/3)
- ROI
- -40%
- Culture1 bets
- Hit rate
- 100% (1/1)
- ROI
- +74%
Track record
42% hit · 36/85- No$100 @ 86.0¢
- Yes$20 @ 21.5¢
- No$30 @ 61.0¢
- Yes$200 @ 21.4¢
- No$197 @ 69.0¢
- Yes$1 @ 13.0¢
- No$5 @ 29.0¢
- No$5 @ 16.3¢
- No$10 @ 67.0¢
- Yes$20 @ 44.0¢
- Yes$100 @ 16.6¢
- No$20 @ 48.0¢
- Yes$4 @ 15.7¢
- Yes$60 @ 57.7¢
- Yes$21 @ 71.3¢
- Yes$5 @ 23.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 25.0¢
- No$427 @ 87.4¢
- Yes$20 @ 20.0¢
- No$20 @ 68.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 35.9¢
- No$653 @ 71.6¢
- Will "My Hero Academia FINAL SEASON" win Anime of the Year at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?LostNo$10 @ 30.7¢
- Yes$20 @ 45.0¢
- Yes$2 @ 14.0¢
- Yes$77 @ 57.0¢
- No$4 @ 41.0¢
- Yes$200 @ 7.0¢
- Yes$50 @ 50.0¢
- No$50 @ 44.3¢
- Yes$113 @ 17.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 9.8¢
- Yes$863 @ 29.0¢
- Yes$3 @ 17.0¢
- Yes$107 @ 2.9¢
- No$55 @ 72.0¢
- No$5 @ 42.0¢
- Yes$10 @ 10.0¢
- Yes$212 @ 63.9¢
- No$234 @ 73.6¢
- Yes$129 @ 1.3¢
- No$63 @ 66.0¢
- Yes$17 @ 57.5¢
- Yes$5 @ 10.3¢
- Yes$7 @ 27.0¢
- No$211 @ 84.4¢
- No$10 @ 18.0¢
- No$250 @ 82.9¢
- No$230 @ 61.6¢
- Yes$50 @ 35.0¢
Recent trades
live from Polymarket · click a column to sortLoading recent trades…
Current positions
| Market | Sphere | Outcome | Size | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | — | Yes | $1.3k | 11.7¢ |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | — | Yes | $297 | 59.1¢ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? | — | Yes | $199 | 5.0¢ |
| Will Houthis successfully target shipping on August 5, 2026? | — | Yes | $98 | 27.5¢ |
| Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be at least 900m by August 31? | — | No | $96 | 37.8¢ |
| US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by August 15? | — | Yes | $87 | 47.6¢ |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | — | No | $50 | 14.0¢ |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 10, 2026? | — | Yes | $50 | 16.0¢ |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | — | Yes | $49 | 24.6¢ |
| Will Piers Morgan attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | — | Yes | $19 | 32.9¢ |
| Will Lil Baby have a #1 song on the Billboard Hot 100 in 2026? | Culture | Yes | $10 | 11.3¢ |
| Will Sir Alex Ferguson attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | — | Yes | $10 | 22.0¢ |
| Will IShowSpeed attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | — | Yes | $5 | 11.0¢ |
- Yes$1.3k @ 11.7¢
- Yes$297 @ 59.1¢
- Yes$199 @ 5.0¢
- Yes$98 @ 27.5¢
- No$96 @ 37.8¢
- Yes$87 @ 47.6¢
- No$50 @ 14.0¢
- Yes$50 @ 16.0¢
- Yes$49 @ 24.6¢
- Yes$19 @ 32.9¢
- Yes$10 @ 11.3¢
- Yes$10 @ 22.0¢
- Yes$5 @ 11.0¢