0x5082…049d

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x508212fa8e10afce25025422161c15c68b8b049d
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.0pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

47% @ 43.2¢

Brier

0.212

Resolved

896

Avg size

$152

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	47% (54/114)	-2%	114
Politics	37% (7/19)	+41%	19
Geopolitics	100% (3/3)	+87%	3
Economy	50% (1/2)	-9%	2
Sports	100% (1/1)	+39%	1

Other114 bets
Hit rate
47% (54/114)
ROI
-2%
Politics19 bets
Hit rate
37% (7/19)
ROI
+41%
Geopolitics3 bets
Hit rate
100% (3/3)
ROI
+87%
Economy2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-9%
Sports1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+39%

Track record

47% hit · 66/139

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$436	13.8¢	Lost
Will gas hit (High) $3.75 by March 31?	Yes	$171	75.8¢	Won
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?	Yes	$65	16.3¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)	No	$295	54.8¢	Won
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?	Yes	$217	21.7¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?	Yes	$254	23.1¢	Lost
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?	No	$2.4k	38.3¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?	Yes	$180	18.0¢	Won
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	No	$70	37.1¢	Won
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	No	$8	23.2¢	Won
State of the Union Bingo - Card 1	Yes	$73	36.7¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" this week? (April 5)	No	$490	49.0¢	Lost
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?	Yes	$253	28.7¢	Won
Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?	No	$135	84.0¢	Won
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?	Yes	$2.0k	58.5¢	Lost
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?	Yes	$474	59.8¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?	No	$1.4k	36.0¢	Won
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?	Yes	$611	24.4¢	Lost
Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?	Yes	$66	7.8¢	Lost
US forces enter Iran by March 31?	Yes	$505	20.2¢	Lost
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	Yes	$219	19.7¢	Won
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?	Yes	$709	15.8¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Khamenei" this week? (March 29)	No	$567	63.0¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$2.2k	84.0¢	Lost
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	Yes	$988	13.9¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?	No	$3.6k	51.8¢	Won
Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election?	Yes	$728	55.0¢	Lost
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?	Yes	$259	37.0¢	Lost
Will Trump win Texas by 10+ points?	No	$1.3k	68.0¢	Lost
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$40	9.9¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	No	$2.4k	57.7¢	Won
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?	Yes	$684	57.0¢	Lost
State of the Union Bingo - Card 2	Yes	$48	24.0¢	Lost
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer?	Yes	$1.2k	39.6¢	Won
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?	Yes	$1.4k	57.7¢	Won
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?	No	$50	77.8¢	Won
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?	No	$76	57.4¢	Won
Will Trump say "Ethiopia" during the State of the Union address?	Yes	$159	29.1¢	Won
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?	No	$1.4k	69.1¢	Lost
Government shutdown on Saturday?	No	$6.0k	55.0¢	Won
Government shutdown on Saturday?	Yes	$6.0k	74.3¢	Lost
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?	Yes	$55	5.5¢	Won
Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?	Yes	$90	3.0¢	Lost
Will Tim Kaine vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?	No	$173	86.4¢	Won
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?	No	$120	79.0¢	Won
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?	No	$2.1k	64.3¢	Won
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?	Yes	$1.5k	34.4¢	Won
Spread: Bengals (-3.5)	Buccaneers	$49	49.0¢	Lost
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?	Yes	$498	59.2¢	Won
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?	No	$1.7k	55.7¢	Won

SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$436 @ 13.8¢
Will gas hit (High) $3.75 by March 31?Won
Yes$171 @ 75.8¢
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?Lost
Yes$65 @ 16.3¢
Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)Won
No$295 @ 54.8¢
Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?Lost
Yes$217 @ 21.7¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$254 @ 23.1¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Lost
No$2.4k @ 38.3¢
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026?Won
Yes$180 @ 18.0¢
Will 60 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Won
No$70 @ 37.1¢
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
No$8 @ 23.2¢
State of the Union Bingo - Card 1Lost
Yes$73 @ 36.7¢
Will Trump say "Khamenei" or "Khomeini" this week? (April 5)Lost
No$490 @ 49.0¢
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 8-June 14?Won
Yes$253 @ 28.7¢
Will John Fetterman vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?Won
No$135 @ 84.0¢
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote?Lost
Yes$2.0k @ 58.5¢
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $90 on the final trading day of June 2026?Lost
Yes$474 @ 59.8¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?Won
No$1.4k @ 36.0¢
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?Lost
Yes$611 @ 24.4¢
Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 13-April 19?Lost
Yes$66 @ 7.8¢
US forces enter Iran by March 31?Lost
Yes$505 @ 20.2¢
Will 40-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Won
Yes$219 @ 19.7¢
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?Lost
Yes$709 @ 15.8¢
Will Trump say "Khamenei" this week? (March 29)Won
No$567 @ 63.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$2.2k @ 84.0¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Won
Yes$988 @ 13.9¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?Won
No$3.6k @ 51.8¢
Will a Democrat win Wisconsin Presidential Election?Lost
Yes$728 @ 55.0¢
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?Lost
Yes$259 @ 37.0¢
Will Trump win Texas by 10+ points?Lost
No$1.3k @ 68.0¢
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$40 @ 9.9¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Won
No$2.4k @ 57.7¢
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Lost
Yes$684 @ 57.0¢
State of the Union Bingo - Card 2Lost
Yes$48 @ 24.0¢
Will the 2026 State of the Union address last 100 minutes or longer?Won
Yes$1.2k @ 39.6¢
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?Won
Yes$1.4k @ 57.7¢
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day April 8–12?Won
No$50 @ 77.8¢
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by April 30?Won
No$76 @ 57.4¢
Will Trump say "Ethiopia" during the State of the Union address?Won
Yes$159 @ 29.1¢
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?Lost
No$1.4k @ 69.1¢
Government shutdown on Saturday?Won
No$6.0k @ 55.0¢
Government shutdown on Saturday?Lost
Yes$6.0k @ 74.3¢
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?Won
Yes$55 @ 5.5¢
Will 30-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 6-April 12?Lost
Yes$90 @ 3.0¢
Will Tim Kaine vote "Yea" on the Department of Homeland Security Appropriations Act, 2026?Won
No$173 @ 86.4¢
Will no one dissent the July Fed decision?Won
No$120 @ 79.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May?Won
No$2.1k @ 64.3¢
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31?Won
Yes$1.5k @ 34.4¢
Spread: Bengals (-3.5)Lost
Buccaneers$49 @ 49.0¢
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st?Won
Yes$498 @ 59.2¢
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?Won
No$1.7k @ 55.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$6.4k	71.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-02 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$1.3k	54.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$1.3k	43.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?	Politics	No	$1.2k	59.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$760	38.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$446	44.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$420	41.9¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$400	20.0¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$390	19.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$365	29.9¢
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?	Politics	Yes	$153	50.9¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$1	83.0¢

Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$6.4k @ 71.0¢
Will the Democratic Party win the IA-02 House seat?Politics
Yes$1.3k @ 54.2¢
Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$1.3k @ 43.0¢
Will the Republican Party win the IA-02 House seat?Politics
No$1.2k @ 59.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Kansas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$760 @ 38.0¢
Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$446 @ 44.6¢
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$420 @ 41.9¢
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$400 @ 20.0¢
Will the Republicans win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$390 @ 19.5¢
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat?Politics
Yes$365 @ 29.9¢
Will the Democratic Party win the PA-01 House seat?Politics
Yes$153 @ 50.9¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$1 @ 83.0¢