0x5042…fcb0

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5042e6dc8a612c493881a3e67519cc09f5f4fcb0
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.5pp

ROI

+10%

Win rate

59% @ 54.8¢

Brier

0.161

Resolved

1753

Avg size

$11

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	55% (539/986)	+10%	986
Politics	40% (2/5)	-45%	5
Sports	50% (1/2)	+2%	2
Crypto	50% (1/2)	-22%	2

Other986 bets
Hit rate
55% (539/986)
ROI
+10%
Politics5 bets
Hit rate
40% (2/5)
ROI
-45%
Sports2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
+2%
Crypto2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-22%

Track record

55% hit · 543/995

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET	Up	$44	94.8¢	Won
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET	Down	$15	99.0¢	Won
Oregon State vs. UTEP	Oregon State	$20	80.0¢	Won
Oklahoma vs. Georgia	Oklahoma	$5	19.0¢	Lost
Will Powell say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?	Yes	$16	80.0¢	Lost
Will Rutte say "nuclear" during NATO Public Forum Address on June 24?	Yes	$5	89.0¢	Lost
Will Ryanair say "Union" during earnings call?	No	$214	62.1¢	Won
Will PC Principal make a trade during South Park's prediction market episode?	Yes	$3	28.0¢	Lost
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 9–16?	Yes	$3	30.0¢	Lost
Will anyone say "Polymarket" during South Park's prediction market episode?	Yes	$10	27.0¢	Won
Will $VIRTUAL be the next coin listed on Robinhood?	Yes	$2	6.7¢	Lost
Will Netflix say "Partnership" during earnings call?	Yes	$15	75.0¢	Won
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?	Yes	$67	74.0¢	Won
Will Trump say “Big Beautiful Bill” during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?	Yes	$7	66.0¢	Won
Flyers vs. Blackhawks	Blackhawks	$2	67.0¢	Won
Will Trump say 'Russia' 3+ times during the 2025 State of the Union?	Yes	$3	55.0¢	Won
Will Starmer say "Scotland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	No	$31	67.3¢	Won
Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?	Yes	$117	82.7¢	Won
Will Trump announce tariffs on Germany on April 2?	No	$4	70.0¢	Won
Will Fear & Greed Index report "Extreme Fear" on March 31?	Yes	$1	31.0¢	Won
Will Starmer say "Restore Britain" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?	Yes	$1	13.3¢	Lost
Pelicans vs. Timberwolves	Timberwolves	$1	87.0¢	Lost
Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?	No	$12	60.0¢	Won
Will Keir Starmer say "Gentleman" or "Lady" 6+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?	No	$650	87.2¢	Won
Will Trump say "Panican" during his cabinet meeting on April 10?	Yes	$4	10.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'Panama' during the 2025 State of the Union?	No	$2	43.0¢	Lost
Will Trump impose tariffs on Panama in the first 100 days?	Yes	$23	9.9¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'NATO' during the 2025 State of the Union?	Yes	$5	73.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?	Yes	$3	64.0¢	Won
Will Starmer say "Lib Dems/Liberal Democrats" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?	Yes	$5	26.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Egg" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?	No	$1	61.0¢	Won
Magic vs. Cavaliers	Magic	$1	15.0¢	Won
Will Starmer say "Equality" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?	No	$16	89.0¢	Won
Will Rhea Seehorn (Pluribus) win Best Actress – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?	Yes	$1	82.0¢	Won
Will Powell say "Labor" 25+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?	No	$52	57.3¢	Won
Will Sinners win Best Original Score – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?	Yes	$1	78.0¢	Won
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?	Yes	$34	84.5¢	Won
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?	Yes	$3	8.6¢	Lost
Will Trump say “Million / Billion / Trillion” 15+ times during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?	Yes	$11	55.0¢	Lost
Red Wings vs. Hurricanes	Hurricanes	$7	70.0¢	Won
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?	Yes	$38	76.6¢	Won
US government shutdown by October 1?	No	$13	33.5¢	Lost
Will Trump say “Little Communist” by February 28?	No	$66	63.5¢	Won
Will Bryan Johnson say "Goth Girl" while tripping balls?	Yes	$21	60.0¢	Lost
Will One Battle After Another win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?	Yes	$10	50.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?	Yes	$16	80.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?	Yes	$218	72.7¢	Won
Will Trump say "Mineral" during tariff event on April 2?	Yes	$1	22.0¢	Won
Will Donald Trump say "Germany" 7+ times during Merz events on June 5?	No	$4	41.0¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Pakistan" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?	Yes	$2	44.0¢	Won

Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 3:10PM-3:15PM ETWon
Up$44 @ 94.8¢
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 27, 3:00PM-3:05PM ETWon
Down$15 @ 99.0¢
Oregon State vs. UTEPWon
Oregon State$20 @ 80.0¢
Oklahoma vs. GeorgiaLost
Oklahoma$5 @ 19.0¢
Will Powell say "Good Morning" during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?Lost
Yes$16 @ 80.0¢
Will Rutte say "nuclear" during NATO Public Forum Address on June 24?Lost
Yes$5 @ 89.0¢
Will Ryanair say "Union" during earnings call?Won
No$214 @ 62.1¢
Will PC Principal make a trade during South Park's prediction market episode?Lost
Yes$3 @ 28.0¢
Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 9–16?Lost
Yes$3 @ 30.0¢
Will anyone say "Polymarket" during South Park's prediction market episode?Won
Yes$10 @ 27.0¢
Will $VIRTUAL be the next coin listed on Robinhood?Lost
Yes$2 @ 6.7¢
Will Netflix say "Partnership" during earnings call?Won
Yes$15 @ 75.0¢
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?Won
Yes$67 @ 74.0¢
Will Trump say “Big Beautiful Bill” during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?Won
Yes$7 @ 66.0¢
Flyers vs. BlackhawksWon
Blackhawks$2 @ 67.0¢
Will Trump say 'Russia' 3+ times during the 2025 State of the Union?Won
Yes$3 @ 55.0¢
Will Starmer say "Scotland" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Won
No$31 @ 67.3¢
Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on September 9?Won
Yes$117 @ 82.7¢
Will Trump announce tariffs on Germany on April 2?Won
No$4 @ 70.0¢
Will Fear & Greed Index report "Extreme Fear" on March 31?Won
Yes$1 @ 31.0¢
Will Starmer say "Restore Britain" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Lost
Yes$1 @ 13.3¢
Pelicans vs. TimberwolvesLost
Timberwolves$1 @ 87.0¢
Will Keir Starmer say "Iran" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Won
No$12 @ 60.0¢
Will Keir Starmer say "Gentleman" or "Lady" 6+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Won
No$650 @ 87.2¢
Will Trump say "Panican" during his cabinet meeting on April 10?Lost
Yes$4 @ 10.5¢
Will Trump say 'Panama' during the 2025 State of the Union?Lost
No$2 @ 43.0¢
Will Trump impose tariffs on Panama in the first 100 days?Lost
Yes$23 @ 9.9¢
Will Trump say 'NATO' during the 2025 State of the Union?Lost
Yes$5 @ 73.2¢
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union?Won
Yes$3 @ 64.0¢
Will Starmer say "Lib Dems/Liberal Democrats" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?Lost
Yes$5 @ 26.5¢
Will Trump say "Egg" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?Won
No$1 @ 61.0¢
Magic vs. CavaliersWon
Magic$1 @ 15.0¢
Will Starmer say "Equality" during the next Prime Minister's Questions?Won
No$16 @ 89.0¢
Will Rhea Seehorn (Pluribus) win Best Actress – Television Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?Won
Yes$1 @ 82.0¢
Will Powell say "Labor" 25+ times during Jackson Hole speech on August 22?Won
No$52 @ 57.3¢
Will Sinners win Best Original Score – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?Won
Yes$1 @ 78.0¢
Will the next UK parliament by-election be called by September 30?Won
Yes$34 @ 84.5¢
Will Pump.fun be accused of insider trading?Lost
Yes$3 @ 8.6¢
Will Trump say “Million / Billion / Trillion” 15+ times during his Iowa State Fairgrounds speech?Lost
Yes$11 @ 55.0¢
Red Wings vs. HurricanesWon
Hurricanes$7 @ 70.0¢
Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?Won
Yes$38 @ 76.6¢
US government shutdown by October 1?Lost
No$13 @ 33.5¢
Will Trump say “Little Communist” by February 28?Won
No$66 @ 63.5¢
Will Bryan Johnson say "Goth Girl" while tripping balls?Lost
Yes$21 @ 60.0¢
Will One Battle After Another win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?Won
Yes$10 @ 50.0¢
Will Trump say "Canada" 7+ times during Carney visit on May 6?Won
Yes$16 @ 80.0¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Won
Yes$218 @ 72.7¢
Will Trump say "Mineral" during tariff event on April 2?Won
Yes$1 @ 22.0¢
Will Donald Trump say "Germany" 7+ times during Merz events on June 5?Lost
No$4 @ 41.0¢
Will Trump say "Pakistan" at Medicare Drug Price Plan Event?Won
Yes$2 @ 44.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Andy Burnham say "Trump" during the next PMQ?	—	No	$994	97.6¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Reform" during the next PMQ?	—	No	$698	96.9¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Budget" during the next PMQ?	—	No	$234	98.5¢
Will Andy Burnham say "King" or "Queen" during the next PMQ?	—	No	$213	96.7¢
Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ?	—	Yes	$133	98.7¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Immigration" during the next PMQ?	—	No	$128	99.3¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Defence" during the next PMQ?	—	No	$119	98.1¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 12+ times during the next PMQ?	—	No	$117	97.6¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Wales" during the next PMQ?	—	No	$31	98.2¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Scotland" during the next PMQ?	—	No	$29	98.1¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ?	—	No	$19	99.0¢

Will Andy Burnham say "Trump" during the next PMQ?—
No$994 @ 97.6¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Reform" during the next PMQ?—
No$698 @ 96.9¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Budget" during the next PMQ?—
No$234 @ 98.5¢
Will Andy Burnham say "King" or "Queen" during the next PMQ?—
No$213 @ 96.7¢
Will Andy Burnham not participate in the next PMQ?—
Yes$133 @ 98.7¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Immigration" during the next PMQ?—
No$128 @ 99.3¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Defence" during the next PMQ?—
No$119 @ 98.1¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 12+ times during the next PMQ?—
No$117 @ 97.6¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Wales" during the next PMQ?—
No$31 @ 98.2¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Scotland" during the next PMQ?—
No$29 @ 98.1¢
Will Andy Burnham say "Mr Speaker" 20+ times during the next PMQ?—
No$19 @ 99.0¢