0x5040…96cf

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x5040b5e76b45aeff6ccbb21b1aad0ccc2fa296cf
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+1.6pp

ROI

+15%

Win rate

22% @ 20.4¢

Brier

0.134

Resolved

4192

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	30% (433/1421)	+26%	1421
Politics	15% (19/124)	+7%	124
Geopolitics	8% (3/39)	-70%	39
Sports	20% (5/25)	+14%	25
Tech	29% (6/21)	+27%	21
Crypto	67% (4/6)	+78%	6
Culture	0% (0/3)	-100%	3

Other1421 bets
Hit rate
30% (433/1421)
ROI
+26%
Politics124 bets
Hit rate
15% (19/124)
ROI
+7%
Geopolitics39 bets
Hit rate
8% (3/39)
ROI
-70%
Sports25 bets
Hit rate
20% (5/25)
ROI
+14%
Tech21 bets
Hit rate
29% (6/21)
ROI
+27%
Crypto6 bets
Hit rate
67% (4/6)
ROI
+78%
Culture3 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/3)
ROI
-100%

Track record

29% hit · 470/1639

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Trump say "Iran" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?	No	$2	14.7¢	Lost
Will FC Juárez win on 2026-04-03?	Yes	$5	38.0¢	Lost
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?	Yes	$21	30.0¢	Lost
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?	Yes	$5	12.0¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	No	$5	3.5¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 82 and 83 million views on week 1?	Yes	$3	9.3¢	Lost
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?	Yes	$0	0.3¢	Lost
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24?	Yes	$4	6.7¢	Lost
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?	No	$2	0.8¢	Lost
Club León FC vs. Club Santos Laguna: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$3	59.0¢	Won
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CF Pachuca: Both Teams to Score	Yes	$11	57.0¢	Lost
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?	Yes	$2	1.5¢	Lost
GPT ads by December 31?	Yes	$3	17.5¢	Lost
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?	No	$1	7.4¢	Lost
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12?	Yes	$6	57.0¢	Lost
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$19	2.1¢	Lost
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?	Yes	$3	2.6¢	Lost
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?	No	$40	56.8¢	Won
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?	No	$7	21.5¢	Won
Body-cam footage of Maduro capture released by Jan 31?	Yes	$3	15.0¢	Lost
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?	Yes	$5	18.8¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November?	Yes	$6	8.1¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times during Ohio visit?	Yes	$5	10.2¢	Lost
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?	No	$1	4.4¢	Lost
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?	Yes	$11	9.9¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?	Yes	$15	38.0¢	Won
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	No	$9	8.9¢	Lost
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?	Yes	$6	26.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "250" at Fort Bragg on Friday?	Yes	$4	50.9¢	Lost
Will White House post 180-199 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?	Yes	$3	25.0¢	Won
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?	No	$11	2.3¢	Lost
Will "The Dinosaurs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?	No	$8	20.5¢	Lost
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?	No	$4	18.2¢	Lost
Will Trump say "Tax on Tips" while addressing the nation on December 17?	No	$1	21.0¢	Lost
North Korea missile launch by January 31?	No	$6	56.0¢	Lost
Will GenesisCupChampion win the Genesis Cup?	Yes	$1	24.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Miami address?	Yes	$3	10.5¢	Lost
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?	Yes	$1	12.4¢	Lost
Will "MIA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?	Yes	$1	0.4¢	Lost
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	Yes	$97	4.4¢	Lost
Epstein client list released in 2025?	Yes	$2	7.6¢	Lost
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?	Yes	$27	9.0¢	Lost
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?	Yes	$19	9.7¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 2?	No	$4	5.0¢	Lost
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026?	Yes	$3	13.5¢	Lost
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?	Yes	$1	1.7¢	Lost
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-03-04?	Yes	$5	68.0¢	Won
Stars vs. Canadiens	Stars	$2	48.0¢	Won
Will Trump say "Slave" or "Slavery" during the Black History Month reception?	No	$2	19.0¢	Won
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?	No	$4	51.0¢	Won

Will Trump say "Iran" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?Lost
No$2 @ 14.7¢
Will FC Juárez win on 2026-04-03?Lost
Yes$5 @ 38.0¢
Ukraine officially agrees to a US backed ceasefire framework by March 31?Lost
Yes$21 @ 30.0¢
Another US strike on Venezuela by January 10?Lost
Yes$5 @ 12.0¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Lost
No$5 @ 3.5¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 82 and 83 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$3 @ 9.3¢
Will Google Gemini be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on February 13?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.3¢
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 24?Lost
Yes$4 @ 6.7¢
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of January?Lost
No$2 @ 0.8¢
Club León FC vs. Club Santos Laguna: Both Teams to ScoreWon
Yes$3 @ 59.0¢
Deportivo Toluca FC vs. CF Pachuca: Both Teams to ScoreLost
Yes$11 @ 57.0¢
Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?Lost
Yes$2 @ 1.5¢
GPT ads by December 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 17.5¢
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking be the top AI model on April 17, 2026 (Style Control On)?Lost
No$1 @ 7.4¢
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-02-12?Lost
Yes$6 @ 57.0¢
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$19 @ 2.1¢
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 19, 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 2.6¢
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Won
No$40 @ 56.8¢
Will "iPad" be said during the NYC Apple event on March 4?Won
No$7 @ 21.5¢
Body-cam footage of Maduro capture released by Jan 31?Lost
Yes$3 @ 15.0¢
Kinetiq FDV above $200M one day after launch?Lost
Yes$5 @ 18.8¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November?Lost
Yes$6 @ 8.1¢
Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times during Ohio visit?Lost
Yes$5 @ 10.2¢
Will Santa deliver between 8,200,000,000 and 8,300,000,000 gifts for Christmas 2025?Lost
No$1 @ 4.4¢
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31?Lost
Yes$11 @ 9.9¢
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?Won
Yes$15 @ 38.0¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Lost
No$9 @ 8.9¢
NATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?Won
Yes$6 @ 26.0¢
Will Trump say "250" at Fort Bragg on Friday?Lost
Yes$4 @ 50.9¢
Will White House post 180-199 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?Won
Yes$3 @ 25.0¢
Will Iran strike Israel on March 10?Lost
No$11 @ 2.3¢
Will "The Dinosaurs" be the #2 US Netflix show this week?Lost
No$8 @ 20.5¢
U.S. strike on Somalia by January 31?Lost
No$4 @ 18.2¢
Will Trump say "Tax on Tips" while addressing the nation on December 17?Lost
No$1 @ 21.0¢
North Korea missile launch by January 31?Lost
No$6 @ 56.0¢
Will GenesisCupChampion win the Genesis Cup?Won
Yes$1 @ 24.0¢
Will Trump say "Six Seven" during Miami address?Lost
Yes$3 @ 10.5¢
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?Lost
Yes$1 @ 12.4¢
Will "MIA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.4¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Lost
Yes$97 @ 4.4¢
Epstein client list released in 2025?Lost
Yes$2 @ 7.6¢
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?Lost
Yes$27 @ 9.0¢
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?Won
Yes$19 @ 9.7¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 2?Lost
No$4 @ 5.0¢
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026?Lost
Yes$3 @ 13.5¢
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday?Lost
Yes$1 @ 1.7¢
Will CF Monterrey win on 2026-03-04?Won
Yes$5 @ 68.0¢
Stars vs. CanadiensWon
Stars$2 @ 48.0¢
Will Trump say "Slave" or "Slavery" during the Black History Month reception?Won
No$2 @ 19.0¢
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?Won
No$4 @ 51.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?	Politics	No	$138	94.9¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	No	$83	83.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$83	83.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$48	28.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$44	44.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$42	21.1¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$42	28.0¢
Next DeepSeek Pro released by October 31, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$42	21.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$40	20.0¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$40	26.7¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	No	$38	95.3¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?	Politics	Yes	$38	37.7¢
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$36	90.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$29	14.5¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?	Geopolitics	Yes	$24	2.4¢
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?	Politics	Yes	$24	6.0¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$17	17.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$16	8.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$16	3.9¢
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$13	0.9¢
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?	Politics	No	$11	1.6¢
Next DeepSeek Pro released by September 30, 2026?	Tech	Yes	$9	9.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$7	7.0¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$6	6.0¢
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?	Geopolitics	Yes	$3	6.1¢

Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?Politics
No$138 @ 94.9¢
Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
No$83 @ 83.0¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$83 @ 83.0¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Geopolitics
Yes$48 @ 28.4¢
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
Yes$44 @ 44.0¢
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2026?Politics
Yes$42 @ 21.1¢
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$42 @ 28.0¢
Next DeepSeek Pro released by October 31, 2026?Tech
Yes$42 @ 21.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$40 @ 20.0¢
US strike on Colombia by December 31?Politics
Yes$40 @ 26.7¢
Will Lionel Messi win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
No$38 @ 95.3¢
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Politics
Yes$38 @ 37.7¢
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?Politics
Yes$36 @ 90.9¢
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$29 @ 14.5¢
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by September 30?Geopolitics
Yes$24 @ 2.4¢
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027?Politics
Yes$24 @ 6.0¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$17 @ 17.0¢
US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$16 @ 8.0¢
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by September 30?Politics
Yes$16 @ 3.9¢
Will Fabian Ruiz win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$13 @ 0.9¢
Will Khamenei post 0-4 posts from September 18 to September 25, 2026?Politics
No$11 @ 1.6¢
Next DeepSeek Pro released by September 30, 2026?Tech
Yes$9 @ 9.0¢
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by September 30?Politics
Yes$7 @ 7.0¢
Will Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$6 @ 6.0¢
Will Z.ai have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026?Geopolitics
Yes$3 @ 6.1¢