0x5039…946d

Specialization by sphere

• Other345 bets

  Hit rate

  48% (164/345)

  ROI

  -3%

• Politics49 bets

  Hit rate

  49% (24/49)

  ROI

  +29%

• Geopolitics15 bets

  Hit rate

  53% (8/15)

  ROI

  +24%

• Sports3 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (1/3)

  ROI

  +190%

• Tech2 bets

  Hit rate

  50% (1/2)

  ROI

  -30%

• Crypto2 bets

  Hit rate

  100% (2/2)

  ROI

  +291%

• US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
  No$514 @ 70.5¢
• Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on July 4?Lost
  Yes$2.5k @ 18.0¢
• Will Trump say "Drug" 15+ times during Ohio visit?Won
  No$110 @ 32.0¢
• Will Trump say "Hell" 2+ times at the Congressional Ball on December 11?Won
  No$17 @ 83.0¢
• Will the government shutdown end November 12?Won
  No$481 @ 41.8¢
• Will Trump say "Eight Wars" or "Eighth War" during CNBC: Squawk Box appearance on April 21?Won
  No$96 @ 62.5¢
• Will Leavitt say "Stock Market" during the next White House Press Briefing?Won
  No$368 @ 80.7¢
• Will Trump say "Jesus" this week? (March 8)Lost
  No$632 @ 83.2¢
• CNN, Politico, or MS NOW unbanned from White House by September 30?Lost
  No$271 @ 21.0¢
• Will Powell say "Inflation" 40+ times during September press conference?Won
  Yes$2 @ 82.0¢
• Will Dharmendra be ranked #1 globally in Google’s Year in Search 2025 Actors?Won
  No$0 @ 43.0¢
• Will Leavitt say "Hormuz" during the next White House Press Briefing?Lost
  No$60 @ 12.0¢
• Will Bryan Johnson say "Goth Girl" while tripping balls?Lost
  Yes$29 @ 58.0¢
• Will the government shutdown end November 19?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
• Will “KPop Demon Hunters” be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 18 2025)Lost
  Yes$2 @ 4.0¢
• Will Trump say "Coach" 15+ times during NCAA National Champions remarks on April 21?Won
  No$242 @ 64.6¢
• Will Trump say "Ayatollah" or "Khamenei" this week? (March 8)Won
  No$387 @ 75.6¢
• Will Trump say "Dow" or "S&P" during No Tax on Tips Roundtable?Won
  Yes$454 @ 68.6¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Won
  No$1.5k @ 77.0¢
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?Lost
  Yes$5.1k @ 18.8¢
• Will Trump dance during WHCA Dinner on April 25?Won
  No$1 @ 53.0¢
• Will Bianca Censori rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?Lost
  Yes$138 @ 69.0¢
• Will “Marines” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 18 2025)Lost
  Yes$2 @ 3.0¢
• Will Trump say "Kamala" during the medal presentation on December 15?Won
  No$18 @ 88.0¢
• Will Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by November 30?Won
  No$500 @ 41.9¢
• Will Trump say "Biden" during Medal of Honor ceremony on March 2?Won
  No$461 @ 54.2¢
• Will Trump say "My father" this week?Won
  No$73 @ 49.0¢
• Will Trump say "Cheat" or "Cheater" or "Cheated" or "Cheating" 10+ times at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?Won
  Yes$175 @ 27.0¢
• Will Trump say "Kash" or "FBI" during the medal presentation on December 15?Lost
  No$17 @ 84.0¢
• Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 17?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 0.9¢
• Will Trump say "Fake News" during meetings with Chancellor Merz?Won
  No$185 @ 62.2¢
• Will the government shutdown end November 20?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
• Will Trump say "NATO" during Taoiseach events?Won
  Yes$17 @ 76.0¢
• Will the next US x Venezuela military engagement occur on December 18?Lost
  Yes$6 @ 0.9¢
• Will Trump say "Tariff" during Bill Signing on December 12?Lost
  Yes$40 @ 37.0¢
• MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin in 2025?Lost
  Yes$1.3k @ 20.9¢
• Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Pennsylvania events on December 9?Lost
  No$14 @ 2.8¢
• US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?Won
  No$876 @ 54.3¢
• Will Trump say "World Cup" or "Olympics" 4+ times during Inter Miami events on Thursday?Lost
  No$11 @ 25.0¢
• US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 20, 2026?Lost
  Yes$67 @ 15.0¢
• Will Trump say "Too Big to Rig" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?Won
  No$81 @ 60.0¢
• Will Trump say "Too Big to Rig" at the NRCC Dinner on March 25?Lost
  Yes$30 @ 3.0¢
• Will “Boots: Season 1” be the top global Netflix show this week? (November 18 2025)Lost
  Yes$2 @ 3.0¢
• Will Trump say "Kharg" or "Island" during Address to the Nation?Won
  No$1.5k @ 68.5¢
• Will Trump visit Pakistan by May 31?Won
  No$138 @ 69.0¢
• Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 9?Won
  No$66 @ 33.0¢
• Iran closes its airspace by May 8?Won
  No$262 @ 69.0¢
• Will Trump say "Hottest" at the Kennedy Center Honors event?Won
  Yes$25 @ 50.0¢
• Will Donald Trump publicly insult Emmanuel Macron by July 31, 2026?Won
  No$833 @ 66.6¢
• Will Trump say "Border" at the FIFA World Cup Draw on December 5?Lost
  Yes$12 @ 6.0¢

Current positions

• Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  No$5.6k @ 55.7¢
• Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Politics
  No$4.4k @ 68.0¢
• Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Politics
  Yes$2.9k @ 19.5¢
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
  No$2.3k @ 38.0¢
• Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Geopolitics
  No$2.0k @ 33.9¢
• Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by December 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$1.3k @ 79.5¢
• Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Politics
  Yes$563 @ 6.2¢
• Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31?Geopolitics
  Yes$336 @ 56.0¢
• Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
  Yes$334 @ 56.2¢
• Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Politics
  No$246 @ 74.9¢
• Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?Politics
  Yes$99 @ 15.0¢
• Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2026?Politics
  No$14 @ 97.7¢