0x4ffe…9f71

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4ffe49ba2a4cae123536a8af4fda48faeb609f71
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+4.6pp

ROI

+63%

Win rate

12% @ 7.6¢

Brier

0.099

Resolved

2307

Avg size

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	17% (52/305)	+124%	305
Politics	3% (5/170)	-81%	170
Crypto	12% (16/139)	+85%	139
Sports	0% (0/113)	-100%	113
Science	13% (9/68)	-27%	68
Tech	8% (4/53)	+187%	53
Geopolitics	7% (1/15)	-89%	15
Culture	0% (0/12)	-100%	12
Business	10% (1/10)	-95%	10
Economy	17% (1/6)	-82%	6

Other305 bets
Hit rate
17% (52/305)
ROI
+124%
Politics170 bets
Hit rate
3% (5/170)
ROI
-81%
Crypto139 bets
Hit rate
12% (16/139)
ROI
+85%
Sports113 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/113)
ROI
-100%
Science68 bets
Hit rate
13% (9/68)
ROI
-27%
Tech53 bets
Hit rate
8% (4/53)
ROI
+187%
Geopolitics15 bets
Hit rate
7% (1/15)
ROI
-89%
Culture12 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/12)
ROI
-100%
Business10 bets
Hit rate
10% (1/10)
ROI
-95%
Economy6 bets
Hit rate
17% (1/6)
ROI
-82%

Track record

10% hit · 89/891

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on September 24?	Yes	$24	2.4¢	Lost
Will Natus Vincere Win the StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026?	Yes	$9	2.1¢	Lost
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?	No	$38	10.1¢	Lost
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?	Yes	$48	3.2¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 22?	No	$2	0.2¢	Lost
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?	No	$107	2.5¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?	Yes	$28	13.3¢	Won
Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$22	1.8¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on September 21?	Yes	$9	3.6¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 on September 19?	Yes	$47	13.5¢	Lost
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?	No	$157	2.8¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 on September 21?	Yes	$23	34.5¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on September 20?	Yes	$1	19.0¢	Lost
Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$28	4.7¢	Lost
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?	Yes	$5	20.3¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in September?	No	$53	6.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 20?	Yes	$18	3.8¢	Won
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on September 24?	Yes	$12	4.5¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 17?	Yes	$21	2.9¢	Lost
Will New People (NL) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?	Yes	$12	17.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 22?	No	$14	0.5¢	Lost
Will Geno Ploeger win AGT Season 21?	Yes	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on September 20?	Yes	$1	15.0¢	Lost
Will Ethereum reach $2,750 on September 19?	Yes	$24	4.1¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?	No	$23	7.9¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 21?	Yes	$17	8.4¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?	Yes	$2	14.0¢	Lost
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Over/Under 28%?	Under	$9	9.1¢	Lost
Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?	Yes	$25	34.6¢	Won
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	No	$55	2.1¢	Lost
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$8	6.1¢	Won
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $760 in September?	No	$0	0.1¢	Lost
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of September 14 2026?	Yes	$9	22.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on September 20?	Yes	$5	22.0¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on September 24?	Yes	$12	28.0¢	Won
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 22?	Yes	$32	6.5¢	Lost
Will Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow?	No	$29	7.8¢	Lost
Will United Russia (ER) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow?	Yes	$0	0.2¢	Lost
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)	Netherlands	$0	9.0¢	Lost
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on September 21?	No	$4	25.1¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 23?	Yes	$32	3.9¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?	No	$41	7.6¢	Lost
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026?	No	$18	1.4¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 24?	No	$24	2.9¢	Lost
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?	No	$45	2.4¢	Lost
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?	Yes	$1	3.7¢	Lost
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 23?	Yes	$12	4.4¢	Lost
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on September 22?	Yes	$0	0.8¢	Lost
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 21?	Yes	$12	23.0¢	Lost
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on September 19?	Yes	$80	10.7¢	Lost

Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 on September 24?Lost
Yes$24 @ 2.4¢
Will Natus Vincere Win the StarLadder StarSeries Fall 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 2.1¢
Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold?Lost
No$38 @ 10.1¢
Will voter turnout be between 50% and 53% in the 2026 Russian parliamentary election?Lost
Yes$48 @ 3.2¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 22?Lost
No$2 @ 0.2¢
Trump x Greenland deal signed by September 23?Lost
No$107 @ 2.5¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1?Won
Yes$28 @ 13.3¢
Will United Russia win between 280 and 294 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$22 @ 1.8¢
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,400 and $2,500 on September 21?Lost
Yes$9 @ 3.6¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,700 on September 19?Lost
Yes$47 @ 13.5¢
Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?Lost
No$157 @ 2.8¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 on September 21?Won
Yes$23 @ 34.5¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on September 20?Lost
Yes$1 @ 19.0¢
Will United Russia win between 295 and 309 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$28 @ 4.7¢
Will 25-29 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between September 14-September 20?Lost
Yes$5 @ 20.3¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $85,000 in September?Lost
No$53 @ 6.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 20?Won
Yes$18 @ 3.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on September 24?Lost
Yes$12 @ 4.5¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on September 17?Lost
Yes$21 @ 2.9¢
Will New People (NL) finish second on the party-list vote in Saint Petersburg?Won
Yes$12 @ 17.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on September 22?Lost
No$14 @ 0.5¢
Will Geno Ploeger win AGT Season 21?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.1¢
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 27°C on September 20?Lost
Yes$1 @ 15.0¢
Will Ethereum reach $2,750 on September 19?Lost
Yes$24 @ 4.1¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?Lost
No$23 @ 7.9¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on September 21?Won
Yes$17 @ 8.4¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1?Lost
Yes$2 @ 14.0¢
Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election: SPD Over/Under 28%?Lost
Under$9 @ 9.1¢
Will Grüne win between 5% and 7% of all valid second votes?Won
Yes$25 @ 34.6¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Lost
No$55 @ 2.1¢
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$8 @ 6.1¢
Will Meta Platforms, Inc. (META) hit (HIGH) $760 in September?Lost
No$0 @ 0.1¢
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $745 Week of September 14 2026?Lost
Yes$9 @ 22.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on September 20?Lost
Yes$5 @ 22.0¢
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on September 24?Won
Yes$12 @ 28.0¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 22?Lost
Yes$32 @ 6.5¢
Will Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow?Lost
No$29 @ 7.8¢
Will United Russia (ER) finish second on the party-list vote in Moscow?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.2¢
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5)Lost
Netherlands$0 @ 9.0¢
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on September 21?Won
No$4 @ 25.1¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on September 23?Lost
Yes$32 @ 3.9¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?Lost
No$41 @ 7.6¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026?Lost
No$18 @ 1.4¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on September 24?Lost
No$24 @ 2.9¢
Will Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?Lost
No$45 @ 2.4¢
Will United Russia win 355 or more seats in the next Russian State Duma election?Lost
Yes$1 @ 3.7¢
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on September 23?Lost
Yes$12 @ 4.4¢
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 on September 22?Lost
Yes$0 @ 0.8¢
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on September 21?Lost
Yes$12 @ 23.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on September 19?Lost
Yes$80 @ 10.7¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will Srđan Amidžić be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?	Politics	Yes	$46	6.4¢
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$41	0.7¢
Will Boyko Borissov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$37	2.4¢
Databricks IPO before 2027?	Business	Yes	$37	8.9¢
Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$36	5.1¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?	Politics	No	$35	5.8¢
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$35	2.7¢
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	Tech	Yes	$34	5.5¢
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?	Sports	Yes	$33	1.2¢
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$32	6.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$32	6.2¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?	Politics	Yes	$32	5.0¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?	Politics	Yes	$32	6.0¢
Will Lens win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?	Sports	Yes	$31	1.1¢
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$30	7.1¢
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$30	6.9¢
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?	Politics	Yes	$29	1.0¢
Will Roberto Cláudio win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?	Politics	Yes	$29	1.5¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?	Culture	No	$29	3.3¢
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?	Politics	Yes	$28	1.3¢
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?	Politics	Yes	$27	0.2¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Economy	No	$26	5.9¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?	Economy	No	$25	2.4¢
Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?	Sports	Yes	$25	2.2¢
XRP all time high by September 30, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$25	2.3¢
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?	Sports	No	$25	3.9¢
Will Solana dip to $50 in September?	Crypto	Yes	$25	1.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?	Politics	No	$24	5.1¢
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?	Tech	Yes	$24	5.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?	Crypto	Yes	$24	3.9¢

Will Srđan Amidžić be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina?Politics
Yes$46 @ 6.4¢
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$41 @ 0.7¢
Will Boyko Borissov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Politics
Yes$37 @ 2.4¢
Databricks IPO before 2027?Business
Yes$37 @ 8.9¢
Will Zcash dip to $50 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$36 @ 5.1¢
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?Politics
No$35 @ 5.8¢
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by September 30?Politics
Yes$35 @ 2.7¢
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?Tech
Yes$34 @ 5.5¢
Will Vitinha win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Sports
Yes$33 @ 1.2¢
Will Romeu Zema finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$32 @ 6.6¢
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Kevin Warsh by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$32 @ 6.2¢
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?Politics
Yes$32 @ 5.0¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by September 30?Politics
Yes$32 @ 6.0¢
Will Lens win the 2026-27 Ligue 1 Championship?Sports
Yes$31 @ 1.1¢
Will the federal gas tax be suspended by November 2, 2026?Politics
Yes$30 @ 7.1¢
Will Solana dip to $20 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$30 @ 6.9¢
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?Politics
Yes$29 @ 1.0¢
Will Roberto Cláudio win the 2026 Ceará gubernatorial election?Politics
Yes$29 @ 1.5¢
Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be between 950m and 960m by September 30?Culture
No$29 @ 3.3¢
Will Fernando Haddad finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Politics
Yes$28 @ 1.3¢
Will Nooshi Dadgostar be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Politics
Yes$27 @ 0.2¢
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Economy
No$26 @ 5.9¢
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?Economy
No$25 @ 2.4¢
Will Ilia Topuria be the UFC Lightweight Champion on December 31, 2026?Sports
Yes$25 @ 2.2¢
XRP all time high by September 30, 2026?Crypto
Yes$25 @ 2.3¢
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the 2026 National League MVP Award?Sports
No$25 @ 3.9¢
Will Solana dip to $50 in September?Crypto
Yes$25 @ 1.0¢
Will the Republicans win the Wyoming Senate race in 2026?Politics
No$24 @ 5.1¢
Will 9-10 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026?Tech
Yes$24 @ 5.3¢
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026?Crypto
Yes$24 @ 3.9¢