0x4fcd…de5e

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4fcd0f993bc357213e242c09f82559930f8bde5e
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+7.3pp

ROI

+8%

Win rate

67% @ 60.2¢

Brier

0.143

Resolved

455

Avg size

$67

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Other	60% (73/122)	+7%	122
Politics	84% (26/31)	+8%	31
Geopolitics	86% (12/14)	+16%	14
Culture	0% (0/1)	-100%	1
Crypto	100% (1/1)	+15%	1

Other122 bets
Hit rate
60% (73/122)
ROI
+7%
Politics31 bets
Hit rate
84% (26/31)
ROI
+8%
Geopolitics14 bets
Hit rate
86% (12/14)
ROI
+16%
Culture1 bets
Hit rate
0% (0/1)
ROI
-100%
Crypto1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+15%

Track record

66% hit · 112/169

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?	No	$211	84.6¢	Won
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?	No	$147	89.4¢	Won
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?	Yes	$75	75.0¢	Lost
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?	No	$95	63.5¢	Lost
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?	No	$207	69.0¢	Won
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?	No	$445	89.0¢	Won
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?	No	$5	5.2¢	Lost
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?	No	$38	89.9¢	Won
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?	No	$345	86.3¢	Won
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?	No	$0	50.0¢	Won
Iran coup attempt by June 30?	No	$174	87.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?	No	$13	67.0¢	Won
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?	Yes	$37	74.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?	No	$11	1.2¢	Lost
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?	Yes	$20	10.0¢	Lost
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?	Yes	$83	83.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?	No	$1	0.6¢	Lost
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?	No	$460	75.5¢	Won
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?	Yes	$91	86.5¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?	No	$122	61.1¢	Won
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?	Yes	$44	22.0¢	Lost
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26?	No	$146	73.0¢	Won
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?	Yes	$50	82.0¢	Won
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?	No	$382	85.0¢	Won
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?	No	$33	11.0¢	Lost
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?	No	$99	90.0¢	Won
Iran leadership change by May 31?	No	$402	85.5¢	Won
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?	No	$398	79.5¢	Lost
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?	No	$27	10.8¢	Lost
US strike on Mexico by January 31?	No	$134	89.0¢	Won
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 29?	No	$1	0.9¢	Lost
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?	No	$428	81.2¢	Won
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?	Yes	$239	85.3¢	Won
Will Zaccaria Pinball win VR Game of the Year at the 2025 Steam Awards?	Yes	$1	0.1¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?	Yes	$75	81.0¢	Lost
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?	Yes	$81	81.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?	No	$45	89.0¢	Won
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?	No	$108	72.0¢	Won
Will Trump talk to Jerome Powell in January?	No	$37	78.2¢	Won
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by January 31, 2026?	Yes	$28	78.8¢	Won
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 9?	No	$22	58.9¢	Won
Will Time 2025 Person of the Year be leaked?	No	$82	22.3¢	Lost
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?	Yes	$336	84.0¢	Lost
Government shutdown on Saturday?	Yes	$90	17.9¢	Lost
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?	No	$32	65.0¢	Lost
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?	Yes	$58	83.0¢	Won
US strike on Mexico by March 31?	No	$113	75.0¢	Won
Will MrBeast hit 470 Million subscribers by March 31?	Yes	$158	88.0¢	Won
Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Monday?	No	$38	75.0¢	Won
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?	Yes	$66	66.0¢	Lost

US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by April 30?Won
No$211 @ 84.6¢
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?Won
No$147 @ 89.4¢
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?Lost
Yes$75 @ 75.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 465 Million subscribers by January 31?Lost
No$95 @ 63.5¢
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026?Won
No$207 @ 69.0¢
Israel closes its airspace by August 31?Won
No$445 @ 89.0¢
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) beat quarterly earnings?Lost
No$5 @ 5.2¢
Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2025?Won
No$38 @ 89.9¢
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?Won
No$345 @ 86.3¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30?Won
No$0 @ 50.0¢
Iran coup attempt by June 30?Won
No$174 @ 87.0¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?Won
No$13 @ 67.0¢
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31?Won
Yes$37 @ 74.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 23?Lost
No$11 @ 1.2¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week 1?Lost
Yes$20 @ 10.0¢
Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?Won
Yes$83 @ 83.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 27?Lost
No$1 @ 0.6¢
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?Won
No$460 @ 75.5¢
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?Won
Yes$91 @ 86.5¢
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?Won
No$122 @ 61.1¢
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?Lost
Yes$44 @ 22.0¢
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by December 26?Won
No$146 @ 73.0¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 2?Won
Yes$50 @ 82.0¢
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 15, 2026?Won
No$382 @ 85.0¢
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Lost
No$33 @ 11.0¢
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election?Won
No$99 @ 90.0¢
Iran leadership change by May 31?Won
No$402 @ 85.5¢
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026?Lost
No$398 @ 79.5¢
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 10?Lost
No$27 @ 10.8¢
US strike on Mexico by January 31?Won
No$134 @ 89.0¢
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 29?Lost
No$1 @ 0.9¢
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?Won
No$428 @ 81.2¢
Will Clair Obscur: Expedition 33 win Game of the Year at the 2025 Game Awards?Won
Yes$239 @ 85.3¢
Will Zaccaria Pinball win VR Game of the Year at the 2025 Steam Awards?Lost
Yes$1 @ 0.1¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 7?Lost
Yes$75 @ 81.0¢
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?Won
Yes$81 @ 81.0¢
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1?Won
No$45 @ 89.0¢
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?Won
No$108 @ 72.0¢
Will Trump talk to Jerome Powell in January?Won
No$37 @ 78.2¢
Thailand x Cambodia ceasefire by January 31, 2026?Won
Yes$28 @ 78.8¢
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 9?Won
No$22 @ 58.9¢
Will Time 2025 Person of the Year be leaked?Lost
No$82 @ 22.3¢
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31?Lost
Yes$336 @ 84.0¢
Government shutdown on Saturday?Lost
Yes$90 @ 17.9¢
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?Lost
No$32 @ 65.0¢
U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship in 2025?Won
Yes$58 @ 83.0¢
US strike on Mexico by March 31?Won
No$113 @ 75.0¢
Will MrBeast hit 470 Million subscribers by March 31?Won
Yes$158 @ 88.0¢
Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Monday?Won
No$38 @ 75.0¢
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?Lost
Yes$66 @ 66.0¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	Yes	$770	50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?	Politics	No	$770	50.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	Geopolitics	Yes	$504	84.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?	Politics	Yes	$480	87.2¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?	Politics	Yes	$465	93.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House	Politics	No	$460	92.0¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?	Politics	No	$252	72.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?	Politics	Yes	$247	89.0¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?	Politics	No	$179	51.0¢

Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
Yes$770 @ 50.0¢
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Politics
No$770 @ 50.0¢
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Geopolitics
Yes$504 @ 84.0¢
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?Politics
Yes$480 @ 87.2¢
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
Yes$465 @ 93.0¢
2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HousePolitics
No$460 @ 92.0¢
Foreign intervention in Gaza by December 31?Politics
No$252 @ 72.0¢
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Politics
Yes$247 @ 89.0¢
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by December 31?Politics
No$179 @ 51.0¢