0x4fbf…f319

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

• Geopolitics28 bets

  Hit rate

  75% (21/28)

  ROI

  -17%

• Politics21 bets

  Hit rate

  71% (15/21)

  ROI

  +50%

• Other3 bets

  Hit rate

  33% (1/3)

  ROI

  +80%

• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Lost
  No$500 @ 57.1¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 25, 2026?Won
  Yes$63 @ 87.5¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 24, 2026?Won
  Yes$50 @ 85.0¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 23, 2026?Won
  Yes$100 @ 77.4¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?Won
  No$100 @ 92.3¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 17, 2026?Lost
  Yes$25 @ 92.4¢
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?Lost
  No$500 @ 49.0¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 21, 2026?Won
  Yes$50 @ 87.3¢
• NATO downs another Russian drone by October 31?Won
  Yes$10 @ 65.0¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 19, 2026?Won
  Yes$26 @ 92.8¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 18, 2026?Won
  Yes$22 @ 91.5¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 16, 2026?Won
  Yes$350 @ 86.2¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?Won
  No$5.3k @ 86.1¢
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 15, 2026?Won
  No$2.0k @ 93.0¢
• NATO downs another Russian drone by October 15?Lost
  Yes$15 @ 41.6¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 15, 2026?Won
  Yes$25 @ 92.1¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 14, 2026?Won
  Yes$50 @ 90.8¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 13, 2026?Won
  Yes$16 @ 94.0¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 12, 2026?Won
  Yes$64 @ 93.0¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 11, 2026?Won
  Yes$10 @ 95.0¢
• Will Trump's approval rating hit 37% in 2026?Won
  Yes$300 @ 85.5¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 6, 2026?Won
  Yes$60 @ 88.0¢
• Will Lula win 44% or more of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Won
  Yes$22 @ 70.4¢
• Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$124 @ 6.5¢
• Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 29, 2026?Lost
  Yes$24 @ 22.3¢
• Will AfD win 32-35 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Won
  Yes$37 @ 20.4¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$7.6k @ 56.1¢
• Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 30, 2026?Lost
  Yes$24 @ 24.6¢
• Will AfD win 28-31 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?Lost
  Yes$43 @ 55.7¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026?Won
  No$3.0k @ 60.2¢
• Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 26, 2026?Won
  Yes$18 @ 19.5¢
• Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Won
  Yes$70 @ 34.9¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?Won
  No$100 @ 61.2¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on September 28, 2026?Won
  Yes$20 @ 88.0¢
• Will New People (NL) win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$16 @ 9.0¢
• US x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?Won
  Yes$100 @ 88.0¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on September 29, 2026?Won
  Yes$20 @ 88.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 21, 2026?Won
  No$933 @ 74.3¢
• Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$1.6k @ 66.5¢
• Will Trump speak to Ursula von der Leyen in September?Won
  No$50 @ 88.6¢
• Will AfD win 42-45 seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?Lost
  Yes$21 @ 34.7¢
• Will New People (NL) win the third-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$1 @ 39.0¢
• Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$184 @ 41.5¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026?Won
  No$1.3k @ 61.8¢
• Will the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?Lost
  Yes$46 @ 0.6¢
• Will Ukraine target Moscow on September 28, 2026?Lost
  Yes$41 @ 18.8¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on September 30, 2026?Won
  Yes$50 @ 85.6¢
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?Won
  No$100 @ 84.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 22, 2026?Won
  No$500 @ 76.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 14, 2026?Won
  No$500 @ 80.0¢

Current positions

• US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?Politics
  No$7.0k @ 64.6¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?Politics
  No$5.7k @ 83.4¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026?Politics
  No$2.6k @ 73.2¢
• Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  No$2.5k @ 6.0¢
• Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Politics
  Yes$941 @ 23.3¢
• Will Trump's approval rating hit 35% in 2026?Politics
  Yes$460 @ 33.8¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 29, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$170 @ 76.1¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 26, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$120 @ 85.7¢
• Will Wildberries announce bankruptcy before 2027?Geopolitics
  Yes$116 @ 19.5¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 27, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$100 @ 88.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$100 @ 72.0¢
• Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Politics
  Yes$100 @ 66.0¢
• 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D HousePolitics
  Yes$100 @ 65.0¢
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Politics
  No$91 @ 43.0¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 30, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$50 @ 83.0¢
• Will Russia target Kyiv on October 31, 2026?Geopolitics
  Yes$50 @ 81.0¢
• Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Politics
  Yes$20 @ 65.0¢