0x4f71…1721

Name: Track record of Polymarket wallet 0x4f71f873348b7acd0a883f717270f4ac4dc91721
Creator: WhaleGraph
License: https://whalegraph.com/terms

Sharp

Edge

+17.9pp

ROI

+21%

Win rate

81% @ 63.5¢

Brier

0.122

Resolved

129

Avg size

$110

ROI trend

Specialization by sphere

Sphere	Hit rate	ROI	Bets
Tech	69% (11/16)	+23%	16
Other	88% (7/8)	-13%	8
Sports	33% (2/6)	-6%	6
Politics	50% (1/2)	-12%	2
Business	100% (1/1)	+809%	1

Tech16 bets
Hit rate
69% (11/16)
ROI
+23%
Other8 bets
Hit rate
88% (7/8)
ROI
-13%
Sports6 bets
Hit rate
33% (2/6)
ROI
-6%
Politics2 bets
Hit rate
50% (1/2)
ROI
-12%
Business1 bets
Hit rate
100% (1/1)
ROI
+809%

Track record

67% hit · 22/33

Market	Outcome	Size	Entry	Result
Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?	No	$9	11.0¢	Won
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$993	73.6¢	Lost
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?	Yes	$42	17.0¢	Won
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	No	$37	32.0¢	Lost
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$3.1k	77.4¢	Won
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?	No	$1.2k	63.3¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?	Yes	$165	84.0¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?	Yes	$352	80.2¢	Won
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves	Atlanta Braves	$4	74.0¢	Lost
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 11, 2026?	Yes	$505	82.5¢	Won
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$5	11.5¢	Lost
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	No	$1.6k	36.1¢	Lost
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?	Yes	$21	56.8¢	Won
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?	Yes	$82	20.5¢	Won
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by September 30, 2026?	No	$49	13.9¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?	Yes	$101	66.7¢	Won
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?	No	$19	74.0¢	Won
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	No	$2.0k	72.9¢	Won
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$51	2.4¢	Lost
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 9, 2026?	Yes	$531	86.1¢	Won
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	16.5¢	Won
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 1, 2026?	No	$221	87.3¢	Won
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	$10	18.0¢	Lost
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	$41	32.0¢	Lost
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on or prior to October 1, 2026?	No	$89	69.6¢	Won
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026?	Yes	$4	72.0¢	Won
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?	Yes	$9	57.0¢	Won
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?	No	$10	61.0¢	Lost
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?	No	$76	33.2¢	Lost
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?	No	$7	66.0¢	Won
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?	No	$3.0k	77.8¢	Won
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 4, 2026?	Yes	$991	76.3¢	Won
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?	Yes	$10	0.2¢	Lost

Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Won
No$9 @ 11.0¢
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Lost
Yes$993 @ 73.6¢
Gemini 3.5 released by May 31?Won
Yes$42 @ 17.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Lost
No$37 @ 32.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$3.1k @ 77.4¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026?Won
No$1.2k @ 63.3¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 27, 2026?Won
Yes$165 @ 84.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 24, 2026?Won
Yes$352 @ 80.2¢
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta BravesLost
Atlanta Braves$4 @ 74.0¢
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 11, 2026?Won
Yes$505 @ 82.5¢
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$5 @ 11.5¢
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?Lost
No$1.6k @ 36.1¢
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 2, 2026?Won
Yes$21 @ 56.8¢
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?Won
Yes$82 @ 20.5¢
Next Google Gemini Flash-Lite Model (3.6+) released by September 30, 2026?Won
No$49 @ 13.9¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026?Won
Yes$101 @ 66.7¢
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?Won
No$19 @ 74.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Won
No$2.0k @ 72.9¢
Gemini 4.0 released by September 30, 2026?Lost
Yes$51 @ 2.4¢
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 9, 2026?Won
Yes$531 @ 86.1¢
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Won
Yes$10 @ 16.5¢
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 1, 2026?Won
No$221 @ 87.3¢
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
Yes$10 @ 18.0¢
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?Lost
No$41 @ 32.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on or prior to October 1, 2026?Won
No$89 @ 69.6¢
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by October 31, 2026?Won
Yes$4 @ 72.0¢
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 30, 2026?Won
Yes$9 @ 57.0¢
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?Lost
No$10 @ 61.0¢
Gemini 4.0 released by October 15, 2026?Lost
No$76 @ 33.2¢
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?Won
No$7 @ 66.0¢
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026?Won
No$3.0k @ 77.8¢
Next Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by September 4, 2026?Won
Yes$991 @ 76.3¢
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?Lost
Yes$10 @ 0.2¢

Recent trades

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Current positions

Market	Sphere	Outcome	Size	Entry
Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?	Tech	Yes	$105	37.4¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?	Tech	Yes	$5	21.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?	Business	No	$4	7.0¢

Claude 6 released by March 31, 2027?Tech
Yes$105 @ 37.4¢
GTA 6 launch postponed again?Tech
Yes$5 @ 21.0¢
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Business
No$4 @ 7.0¢